Journey to 2100: Humanity's Choices in an Era of Limited Earth Resources

Introduction: A Duet of Warning and Hope

The latest peer-reviewed paper, "The Earth4All scenarios: Human well-being on a finite planet towards 2100," published on July 4, 2025, revamps the world model led by the Club of Rome, simultaneously depicting human well-being and planetary health up to the year 2100【turn0view0】. This study presents two contrasting future visions, "Too Little Too Late" and "Giant Leap," emphasizing that we are indeed at a crossroads.

1. Innovation in the Earth4All Model: "Social Tension Index" and "Well-being Index"

Traditional climate-economic models have focused on physical and economic variables such as GDP and emissions. However, this paper introduces two new indicators that quantify "social tension (trust ↔ conflict)" and "well-being (happiness)." This allows for the visualization of negative feedback loops where economic growth and environmental degradation exacerbate crises through inequality and political division, and positive loops where social cohesion accelerates climate action【turn0view0】.

2. Two Scenarios: Gray Collapse or Collaborative Prosperity

• Too Little Too Late

  • By the mid-2030s, the global average temperature surpasses +1.8 °C.

  • The gap between rich and poor widens, transitioning to a "gray zone economy" in various regions after 2050.

  • Government policy implementation capacity significantly declines due to rising social tensions.

• Giant Leap

  • Simultaneous implementation of "Five Great Transformations" from 2025 to 2035: ① Eradication of poverty, ② Correction of inequality, ③ Women's empowerment, ④ Food system reform, ⑤ Energy transition.

  • Shift to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the early 2040s, keeping temperature rise below 1.9 °C.

  • By 2100, the global well-being index improves by 30% compared to the present, and inequality is halved compared to the 2010s. The authors repeatedly emphasize that this vision depends not only on technological feasibility but also on "political decisiveness" and "social trust"【turn0view0】.

3. What Did Social Media Say? The Temperature Difference Between "Doom" and "Action"

Immediately after the paper's release, a thread titled "Is Earth's Great Collapse the 'Great Filter'?" on Reddit /r/science ignited with over 3,000 comments, continuing the exchange of "pessimism vs. techno-optimism"【turn5view0】. Meanwhile, Buzzing.cc's trend aggregation also saw this article rapidly rise in the environment category, with many Chinese-speaking users spreading it in response to the "final generation theory"【turn10search2】.

The positive faction likens the "Five Great Transformations" to a "Mission Moonshot," with hopeful shares notably among urban youth. In contrast, the liberal media outlet Reason criticizes it as "yet another Malthusianism from the Club of Rome," arguing that resource constraints can be overcome through population decline and technological innovation【turn14view0】. This backlash reflects concerns about the financial burden and market intervention of the policy package.

4. Considering the Five Great Transformations in the Context of Japan

1. End of Poverty: Key initiatives include children's cafeterias and basic income trials domestically.

2. Reduction of Inequality: Tax reforms linking wage gap correction and human capital investment.

3. Full Participation of Women: Correcting the unpaid volunteerization of care work and strengthening corporate board quotas.

4. Redesign of the Food System: Expanding regional circular symbiotic zones through food loss taxation and agricultural-welfare collaboration.

5. Energy Revolution: Achieving an 80% renewable energy ratio by 2050 requires simultaneous reinforcement of the grid and the demand-side flexibility market.

These require not government leadership but "multi-layered governance" where citizens, municipalities, and startups work complementarily.

5. The "Social Costs" Highlighted by the Paper

The research team particularly warns of the spiral of "social tension → policy capacity decline → environmental degradation → further tension." Climate change is now not just an economic issue but a stress test for the resilience of democracy. If international cooperation falters in the 2040s, secondary risks such as AI weapons and refugee explosions will amplify, making the "Too Late" scenario irreversible.

6. The Responsibility of Media: Update the Narrative

Simply inciting pessimism and resignation may lead to a scenario where society only learns about the "Century of Crisis" in history classes.