"The Reality of Jobs Increasing and Decreasing with AI" - The Turning Point Indicated by IBM's Year-End Layoffs: Who Will AI Shift Save and Who Will It Leave Behind?

1｜What Happened—The Weight of "Low Single-Digit %"

On November 4th (U.S. time), IBM acknowledged that as part of a "reallocation" of personnel in the fourth quarter, it would cut a number equivalent to a "low single-digit %" globally. This affects several thousand people, with U.S. employment expected to remain roughly flat year-over-year. Immediately after the announcement, the stock price temporarily dropped by about 2%. The shift towards a software-heavy approach to capture AI demand is progressing coldly in terms of numbers. Reuters

2｜Why Now—The Logic of Allocating Resources to AI and Software

The underlying reason is the focus on high-margin businesses anticipating AI-linked cloud demand. IBM is increasing its software ratio centered on Red Hat and accelerating the "AI premise" transformation across the company, including consulting and infrastructure. Meanwhile, the recent slowdown in cloud software growth has raised investor concerns, forcing management to make more selective and focused decisions. Reuters

3｜The Long Process of "Hiring Freeze → Reallocation → Reduction"

This move is not sudden. In 2023, CEO Arvind Krishna hinted that "back offices that can be replaced by AI and automation will see a hiring freeze." The current "reallocation" can be seen as part of a roadmap to further allocate people and investments to the AI and software sectors. ciodive.com

4｜Three Voices on Social Media: Excuse / On-the-Ground Reality / Investor Perspective

(1) Excuse Theory: Reactions suggest that "AI is not the cause of layoffs, but rather an extension of previous efficiency improvements and offshore transfers." Posts on X (formerly Twitter) and Reddit frequently state that "AI is just a label for explanation." Reddit

(2) On-the-Ground Reality: In threads on r/IBM, opinions are divided over HR chatbot implementation and the usability of existing functions. Many express dissatisfaction with the "quality" of efficiency, saying, "Inquiries are faster, but what could be resolved in 5 minutes with a human takes 30 minutes." Reddit

(3) Investor Perspective: Headlines summarize the news as "Reallocation Amid AI Boom." While the stock price reaction was a slight negative, concerns about the slowdown in the software sector, which is a growth driver, remain strong. In the short term, it's about cost optimization, while in the long term, it's about capturing AI demand—a tug-of-war continues. Reuters

5｜How Many is "Low Single-Digit %"?—Reading the Numbers

As of the end of 2024, IBM's workforce was approximately 270,000. A simple calculation shows that 1-2% would affect 2,700-5,400 people, and 3% would affect about 8,100 people. Reports of "no disclosure of specific numbers" and a "30-day internal reemployment (RA) grace period" add to the psychological burden on the ground. Reuters

6｜Where is the Reallocation Heading?—Red Hat, Software, and AI

CIO Dive, a magazine for CIOs, points out that the current reallocation is consistent with the focus on software and infrastructure (including AI adaptation). IBM is expanding implementation projects in client companies centered on the generative AI "watsonx." Meanwhile, some parts of the hybrid cloud, including Red Hat, show signs of slowing down. The reins of selection and concentration remain delicate. ciodive.com

7｜Rebuttal and Limitations to "Does AI Take Jobs?"

There are many opposing views to the "AI will take all jobs" scenario. LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman argues that "jobs will change, not disappear," citing the example of accounting jobs when Excel was introduced. However, data and on-the-ground perceptions that the impact is skewed towards young administrative and junior white-collar workers cannot be ignored. In other words, "complementation" and "replacement" are progressing simultaneously. Business Insider

8｜Prescriptions for Recruitment and HR in Japan

• Reskilling: Make the understanding of basic prompt design, RAG/agents, and MLOps a "universal skill."

• Job-Based × Internal Marketplace: Clarify job definitions and facilitate internal transfers and "30-day rule" type reallocations.

• Quality of Automation: Introduce chatbots with KPI design (first resolution rate, customer satisfaction, escalation time) and clearly define the criteria for reverting to human intervention.Human Reversion Criteria.

• Recruitment Communication: Discuss AI investment and talent development in tandem. Communication that doesn't confine layoff reasons to "costs" alone affects psychological safety.

9｜Individual Career Strategy—Towards "Hard-to-Replace Skills"

• Business Design × AI Operation: Requirements definition, evaluation metrics, safety, and compliance.

• Product Thinking: Implement automation not as a "point" but to solve bottlenecks in the entire business flow.

• Relational Capital: Communication, negotiation, and interpersonal influence lie outside machine learning.

• Highly Portable Expertise: Data infrastructure, security, SRE, and FinOps remain relatively strong even in economic cycles.

10｜Conclusion—The Design Power of "Human × AI" as a Competitive Edge

IBM's reorganization cannot be reduced to a simple "AI = layoffs" equation. The shift in investment focus and internal reallocation, along with the remaining distortions, were simultaneously visualized events. AI expands not only efficiency. Both companies and individuals must redesign "where humans add value"—this is the essence of this news. Reuters

References and Supplementary Sources

• Overview of Reallocation, Stock Price Reaction, Scale ("Low Single-Digit %", Approximately 270,000 Scale): Reuters. Reuters

• Business Policy (Focus on Software, Infrastructure, AI), Context of Past Hiring Restraint Statements: CIO Dive. ciodive.com

• On-the-Ground Reality and Discussions (AskHR, etc.): Reddit r/IBM. Reddit

• Reporting on Layoff Notifications (30-Day Internal Reemployment, etc.): The Register. The Register

• Additional Situation Overview: Times of India/Entrepreneur (Number Range and AI Focus Supplement). The Times of India