"85 Seconds to Human Extinction" — The Reality of Nuclear, Climate, and AI Deteriorating Simultaneously

"85 Seconds to Human Extinction" — The Reality of Nuclear, Climate, and AI Deteriorating Simultaneously

"85 seconds to midnight." At first glance, this number might make you tense up. The "Doomsday Clock," announced by the Chicago-based nonprofit organization "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists," has been set to 85 seconds to the symbolic moment of catastrophe—midnight. This is 4 seconds closer than the previous year, marking the closest it has ever been to midnight in history.


However, this clock is not a device predicting that "the world will end in 85 seconds." It is an alarm that symbolically indicates how imminent the "catastrophic risks" created by humanity, such as nuclear, climate, and advanced technology, are, based on the annual situation assessed by experts. Therefore, the "4 seconds" this time is not insignificant. This is because the crises are progressing not individually but as a "bundle."


What pushed it to "85 seconds": Nuclear, War, and Treaty Fraying

The emphasized point in this announcement is the reality that the confrontation among nuclear-armed countries is intensifying, and arms control is weakening. The "hardline" stance of major powers like the United States, Russia, and China is increasing, and the framework for nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation is said to be shaking.


Symbolic is the fate of the major agreements that have limited US-Russia strategic nuclear weapons. The statement warns that the New START, the last major agreement limiting US-Russia strategic nuclear deployments, is heading towards expiration, and the potential consideration of resuming explosive nuclear tests in the US could accelerate the nuclear arms race.
(*According to reports, the deadline for New START is approaching, and the uncertainty surrounding its extension is being emphasized.)


Additionally, the point that "conflicts overshadowed by nuclear threats" are occurring simultaneously is significant. The war in Ukraine continues, and tensions remain high in the Middle East. Such situations are prone to unintended escalation (accidental expansion). The Bulletin repeatedly expresses a sense of crisis that the risk of nuclear weapon use is "unacceptably high."


Climate Crisis: The "Worsening Chain" Presented in Numbers

The Doomsday Clock does not only focus on nuclear issues. This statement portrays the climate crisis not as a mere "future concern" but as an "ongoing catastrophic risk" with accumulating damages. Specific indicators such as rising atmospheric CO2 levels, record high temperatures, sea level rise, increased amplitude of droughts and floods, and numerous deaths from heatwaves are listed, showing that the crisis is spreading as a compound disaster.


Furthermore, it delves into criticism of policy aspects. The prioritization of international conferences and the responses of various countries are treated as risk factors, with strong expressions ranging from "insufficient" to "destructive," highlighting the delay in crisis response.


AI: Accelerating Decision-Making in War and the "End of Information"

AI, in particular, became a topic of discussion in this report. When AI is discussed in the context of the Doomsday Clock, there are two main points.


One is integration into the military. While AI is rapidly infiltrating command and control, operational planning, autonomous systems, and cyber, there are concerns about the impact of its black-box nature and errors (so-called "hallucinations") on decision-making. There is also a suggestion that AI could be incorporated into decision-making support for nuclear operations, raising the issue that even if "the final decision is made by humans," the degree of dependence could become dangerous.


The other is **disinformation**. The combination of generative AI and social media increases the speed of spreading falsehoods and incitement, disrupts social consensus-building, and leads to erroneous decision-making in times of crisis. Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, who has pursued disinformation and abuse of power, also participated in the announcement, reportedly warning with strong words like "information Armageddon."


New Biological Risks: The "Science Fiction-like Reality" of "Mirror Life"

Limiting the discussion of the Doomsday Clock to "nuclear and war" would misinterpret its scope this time. The statement mentions that potentially catastrophic risks are increasing in the field of life sciences as well. A symbol of this is the warning about the synthesis of "mirror life," where molecules are mirrored. There is a concern that self-replicating mirror cells could bypass the usual controls of ecosystems and cause widespread impacts. Additionally, the possibility of AI "assisting" in designing new pathogens is cited as another type of threat.


SNS Reactions: The Temperature Difference Over "Doomsday" Directly Reflects Division

The Doomsday Clock, while spreading as news, was also "consumed" on social media. The reactions can be broadly divided into four types.


1) Cynicism and Apathy: "Did it get closer again?" "So what?"

On bulletin boards, dismissive reactions like "It's pointless to care" and "Who decides this?" stand out. In one thread, a comment simply responding "why care?" to a post rose to the top, reflecting a sense of distance from the form of the warning itself.


2) Turning it into a Joke: "Like a mom's '1, 2, 2 and a half...'"

On the other hand, there is a movement to endure heavy topics by turning them into laughter. For example, a post comparing the Doomsday Clock to "the feeling of a mom counting to three" and a sarcastic comment suggesting "why not rename it the 'Rapture Clock'?" gained support.


3) Serious Sense of Crisis: "Are you planning to ignore it until missiles fly?"

In the same thread, behind the jokes, there is a sense of crisis mixed with resignation, with comments like "People will really pay attention only after missiles start flying." The stronger the warning, the more the "sense of reality" among recipients seems to diverge.


4) Calls for AI and Nuclear Abolition: "Regulation and Disarmament" "Nuclear Risks are Rising"

On platforms like X (formerly Twitter), there are increasing posts connecting the Doomsday Clock to "calls for policy." Posts advocating for nuclear disarmament and the prohibition of nuclear weapons, asserting "nuclear risks are rising," are spreading, and voices calling for "control of military use and disinformation" regarding AI are prominent.


Moreover, it is characteristic of social media that even the "appearance of the clock as a symbol" becomes a topic. In another post, there was a comment critiquing, "If it's announcing the end of the world, it should have more 'production value,'" capturing the moment the warning became a meme.


Is the Doomsday Clock "Alarmist" or a "Dashboard"?

The Doomsday Clock is not without its criticisms. Some see it as "subjective" and "an event that stirs anxiety once a year." Indeed, this sentiment is reflected in the cynicism on social media.


However, the point this time is not "how many seconds" but rather which risks are simultaneously worsening. Nuclear tensions, climate damage, instability in decision-making due to AI, governance failure due to disinformation, and new risks in life sciences—these amplify each other. For example, disinformation could harden diplomacy, military AI could amplify misrecognition, and climate disasters could deepen international conflicts, creating a chain reaction. The strong language used by the Bulletin, stating "this may be the most dangerous moment," is backed by an awareness of the complex crisis.


Therefore, the more constructive way to interpret it is not as "how many seconds to doomsday," but as a **"dashboard visualizing the simultaneous progression of crises."** In an era where crises have become complex, it forces a single picture of the overall situation that is difficult to see by merely adding individual news items. The role of the Doomsday Clock lies there.


Sources (compiled at the end of the text)

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