German Cherry Harvest Set for a Bumper Crop - 2025 Expected to Far Exceed the Past Decade's Average, Impact on the Japanese Market?

Table of Contents

1. Understanding the 2025 German Cherry Situation

2. Background of Climate Conditions and Increased Yield by Variety

3. Trends in the EU Fruit Market and Price Outlook

4. Impact on the Japanese Market: Challenges in Import and Distribution

5. Latest Trends in Sustainability and Quality Standards

6. Strategies for Japanese Production Areas and Retailers

7. Summary and Future Outlook
   
   

1. Understanding the 2025 German Cherry Situation

1.1 Harvest Volume: +10.4% Compared to the Past 10-Year Average

According to the preliminary estimate released by the German Federal Statistical Office on June 27, the total harvest volume of sweet and sour cherries in 2025 is expected to reach 49,900 tons. In the previous year, 2024, the harvest was poor due to late frost, resulting in only 35,400 tons, but this year has been blessed with favorable weather, reported as "the highest level in 10 years." aktiencheck.den-tv.de

1.2 Trends by Major Production Areas

• Baden-Württemberg: The largest domestic sweet cherry production area with 2,600 ha. Estimated 18,900 tons (year-on-year +6.2%).

• Lower Saxony: 500 ha with 3,700 tons (year-on-year +24.1%). Cool but favorable weather is a tailwind.

• Rhineland-Palatinate: 700 ha with 3,600 tons (year-on-year +72.3%). Recent focus on quality has led to rootstock renewal. tk-report.de
  
  
  
  

2. Background of Climate Conditions and Increased Yield by Variety

2.1 High Temperatures in Spring, No Late Frost

The average temperature in March-April 2025 was +1.7°C compared to the average year. The temperature did not drop below freezing during the flowering period, resulting in a high pollination success rate. Precipitation was also average, reducing the risk of rain-induced fruit cracking.

2.2 Sweet Cherries: Popular Varieties "Regina" and "Cardinal"

Long sunshine hours during the fruit enlargement period resulted in high sugar content. The EU's "Extra Class" grade ratio increased from 39% last year to an estimated 52% this year.

2.3 Sour Cherries: Supported by Processing Demand

There are significant regional differences, but demand for frozen and canned uses within Europe remains strong, keeping prices stable. tk-report.de

3. Trends in the EU Fruit Market and Price Outlook

• Spot price for EU cherries (4th week of June) is an average of 3.10€ per kg, -8% compared to the same period last year.

• Early varieties from Spain are ending, and shipments from Germany are in full swing.

• Local consumption orientation and sustainability certification (such as GLOBALG.A.P.) are factors for price premiums.
  
  
  
  

4. Impact on the Japanese Market: Challenges in Import and Distribution

4.1 The Japanese Cherry Market

Japan's fresh cherry import volume in 2024 was about 6,000 tons. Over 90% came from the United States (Washington State), with less than 1% from the EU. Even including processed products, the presence of German cherries is small.

4.2 Exchange Rates and Logistics

With the euro appreciating and the yen depreciating (around 1€ = 165 yen), CIF costs are rising. On the other hand, there are reports of reduced transportation days by utilizing the "Eco Silk Road" through mixed rail and North Sea routes.

4.3 Quarantine and Residual Pesticide Standards

To comply with Japan's positive list system, the number of German farms not using glyoxal acid-based pesticides is increasing.

5. Latest Trends in Sustainability and Quality Standards

Since 2024, the German Ministry of Agriculture has been supporting a model for calculating carbon absorption in orchards and is trialing the "Climate-Friendly Cherry" label. There is an accelerating movement to visualize the carbon footprint in collaboration with buyers in export destinations.

6. Strategies for Japanese Production Areas and Retailers

1. Direct Trade: Appeal the rarity value with designated production areas and small-lot air transport.

2. Staggered Sales: Introduce German cherries in August when domestic Sato Nishiki reaches a gap period to reduce loss.

3. Experiential Promotion: Communicate EU organic certification and variety stories through in-store events and social media.
   
   
   
   

7. Summary and Future Outlook

The abundant harvest of German cherries in 2025 may create surplus capacity for shipments to the Asian market after satisfying EU domestic demand. In the Japanese market, differentiation strategies leveraging quality premiums and sustainable value will be key. Concerns for the future include changes in flowering timing due to global warming and labor shortages, highlighting the importance of advancements in smart agriculture and variety improvement in the long term.

List of Reference Articles

1. Aktiencheck "Deutlich mehr Kirschen aus deutschem Anbau" (2025-06-27) aktiencheck.de

2. Destatis Press Release "Kirschenernte 2025 voraussichtlich deutlich über dem Zehnjahresdurchschnitt" (2025-06-27) destatis.de

3. TK-Report "Destatis: Überdurchschnittliche Kirschenernte erwartet" (2025-06-27) tk-report.de

4. n-tv "Obstbauern rechnen 2025 mit 49.900 Tonnen Kirschen" (2025-06-27) n-tv.de

5. Handelsblatt "Ernteschätzung: Deutlich mehr Kirschen aus deutschem Anbau" (2025-06-27) handelsblatt.com