Eisai Stock Continues to Decline: The True Value of the Pharmaceutical Giant Swaying Between Expectations and Concerns Over Lecanemab

Table of Contents

1. Key Points of the German Analysis Article

2. Technical Aspects: Interpreting RSI, Moving Averages, and Volume

3. Fundamentals: P/L and Valuation

4. Lecanemab Commercialization Scenario and Demand Forecast

5. Impact of Regulatory Decisions on Stock Prices

6. Key Milestones for the Next 12 Months

7. Strength of Oncology and Rare Disease Pipeline

8. Long-term Challenges from ESG and Governance Perspectives

9. Conclusion for Investors
   
   

1. Key Points of the German Analysis Article

The article from the German Aktiencheck dated June 22, 2025, titled "Eisai Aktie: Pharmariese im Abwärtssog," states that

• 12-month Price Change ▲41.66%

• RSI 27.3 = "Clearly Oversold"

• Volume Increased by 70% Compared to Normal on the Most Recent Business Day
  
  , and pointed out that the first quarter results on July 31 would be a "litmus test for a trend reversal." aktiencheck.de
  
  

2. Technical Aspects: Interpreting RSI, Moving Averages, and Volume

• RSI (14-day) 27.3: Generally considered oversold when below 30, but confirmation of "exhaustion of materials" is needed for a rebound.
  
  

• 50-day and 200-day Moving Average Discrepancy: Short-term line is 12% below, long-term line is 18% below, indicating a medium to long-term downward trend.
  
  

• Volume Surge: Reached 16.8 million shares (normal 9.8 million shares) on June 20 in the Tokyo market, highlighting institutional investors' loss-cut selling.aktiencheck.de
  
  

3. Fundamentals: P/L and Valuation

Eisai maintains **financial soundness (net D/E = 0.12 times)**, while its "low-profit structure" limits growth investment resources, weighing on the stock price.

4. Lecanemab Commercialization Scenario and Demand Forecast

4.1 Market Size

• Potential Patients: 2.3 million in the US, 1,500 in China (diagnostic system constraints), 3.5 million in the EU. reuters.com

• Medication Cost: $30,000 per year (US price).

4.2 Company Plan

• FY2025 Sales Target: 76.5 billion yen (73% increase from the previous year). aktiencheck.de

• Subcutaneous Formulation: Under FDA review by the end of 2025, administration time is planned to be reduced from the current 60 minutes to 3 minutes.

4.3 Risk

If the US CMS expands insurance coverage to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) by March 2025, annual sales could reach a scale of 120 billion yen.

5. Impact of Regulatory Decisions on Stock Prices

Investor sentiment remains vividly aware of the "regulation = stock price shock" memory, andthe result of the EU reapplicationwill be an important catalyst.

6. Key Milestones for the Next 12 Months

7. The Strength of the Oncology and Rare Disease Pipeline

• Lenvima (Lenvatinib): Established as the standard drug for first-line treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma, with FY2024 sales of 184 billion yen.
  
  

• E7386 (β-catenin inhibitor): Presentation of favorable PFS data at ASCO 2025, NDA planned for 2026.
  
  

• E5091 (LOX-1 antibody): Phase 2 ongoing for cardiovascular event suppression. finanzen100.de
  Stable revenues in the oncology field support the investment burden of lecanemab.
  
  

8. Long-term Challenges from ESG and Governance Perspectives

Eisai hasset forth "Sustainable Growth and Enhancement of Medium- to Long-term Corporate Value" in its June 2024 revised Corporate Governance Report, aiming for a 25% female ratio on the Board of Directors. eisai.com
However, ESG risks remain, such as social criticism over rising drug prices and the pros and cons of animal testing.

9. Conclusion for Investors

In the short term, RSI in the 27 range indicates potential for technical rebound, but the risk of becoming a "falling knife" cannot be dismissed unless real demand and regulatory events are substantiated.Conversely, if

1. the July financial results show that the progress of Leqembi sales has exceeded 25%

2. the subcutaneous formulation is approved within the year

3. EU re-approval or accelerated sales in China
   
   if two or more of these are realized, it would be considered relatively undervalued even at a PER of 25 times, and a medium-term reversal of the stock price would be in sight. The investment stance of " buying on dips after confirming the materials " can be considered appropriate.
   
   

Reference Article List

1. Aktiencheck "Eisai Aktie: Pharmariese im Abwärtssog" (2025-06-22) aktiencheck.de

2. Reuters "EU regulator rejects Eisai/Biogen Alzheimer’s drug" (2024-07-26) reuters.com

3. Reuters "Eisai says US introduction of Leqembi slower than expected" (2024-03-07) reuters.com

4. Reuters "Eisai expects 1,500 Alzheimer’s patients in China launch, sees huge growth" (2024-02-04) reuters.com

5. Eisai "Revenue of LEQEMBI® (Preliminary Basis)" (2025-05-01) eisai.com

6. Eisai "Corporate Governance Report" (2024-06-14) eisai.com

7. Finanzen100 "Eisai Aktie: Pharmariese mit Licht und Schatten" (2025-05-30) finanzen100.de