The Domino Effect After Venezuela: Will Cuba Really Collapse? Cracks in Oil, Tourism, and Alliances

"Cuba is 'ready to fall.'" President Trump's words are provocative and pinpoint the "weakness" of the island nation of Cuba. The focus is not on military invasion. The key issue is whether Havana's governance can withstand when the fuel—more precisely, Venezuelan oil support is cut off.

1) "No intervention needed"—Is the target the 'fuel tap'?

According to reports, when asked by reporters about the possibility of military intervention, Trump responded in a way that suggested "it's not necessary," and argued that the Cuban regime won't last long without Venezuelan support. In other words, cutting off the "flow of resources and funds" rather than "military force" is seen as the decisive blow.

The crucial point here is that Cuba is structurally dependent on energy imports. The long-standing economic and political crisis has led to shortages of essentials like electricity, food, medicine, and cash, and more people are leaving the island, with estimates suggesting that over 10% of the population has emigrated.

2) Blackouts as a "harbinger"—What happens if imported fuel stops

The most vivid crisis indicated in the article is electricity. Blackouts are not "occasional inconveniences" but have become a chronic disease that weakens society itself. In fact, it was reported, based on information from the national power company, that on a certain day, 54% of households were without power.

Furthermore, energy experts have mentioned the possibility that if major suppliers (especially Venezuela) stop supplying, energy supply could collapse in 30 to 45 days. The background includes aging power plants, delays in technological updates, and a lack of foreign currency to buy fuel.

The precariousness becomes even more pronounced when viewed in numbers. Cuba is estimated to need 110,000 to 125,000 barrels of crude oil daily to maintain supply, while domestic production is only about 40,000 barrels. Venezuela once supplied about 30,000 barrels per day, but it has been reported to be on a declining trend in recent years.

If imports dwindle, it won't just result in more blackouts. The entire infrastructure of daily life—refrigeration, healthcare, logistics, public transportation, and communication—will "weaken simultaneously." And this kind of collapse progresses faster than political decision-making, like a law of physics.

3) The "temperature difference" among supporting countries—Changes in Venezuela, Mexico, and Russia

Cuba has not been entirely isolated. Despite strong control and repression, it has reportedly received some support from countries like Venezuela, Mexico, and Russia. However, the article depicts a scenario where the continuation of this support is in jeopardy.

In particular, in Venezuela, it is suggested that after a regime change (with the U.S. "managing" the industry), the export priorities could change, potentially reducing supplies to Cuba.

Regarding Mexico, it is suggested that if tensions with the U.S. rise, it is unclear whether they would continue to supply Cuba "at the risk of provoking Trump."

And Russia. Experts point out that due to the burden of the war in Ukraine, there are few signs of stepping in to "rescue Cuba," suggesting that Cuba is treated more as a "symbol" than a strategically prioritized ally.
Symbols do not fill stomachs. Without fuel tankers, the story of the revolution will be swallowed by the darkness of blackouts.

4) Another lifeline, "tourism," is dwindling

Tourism, which generates foreign currency, is also no longer the "cash cow" it once was. According to the article, the number of tourists, which was about 4.7 million in 2018, fell to less than half by 2025. It was also reported that Russia issued travel warnings citing outbreaks of infectious diseases (such as dengue fever and chikungunya).

Without fuel, with tourism not returning, and with difficulty in raising funds from abroad, this is the "economic meaning" of the expression "ready to fall."

5) Reasons why the argument "the regime won't fall immediately" still exists

However, whether a supply collapse directly leads to a regime collapse is another issue. The article introduces expert opinions that even if supply collapses, **"a regime change from within is unlikely."** The reasons are not just the strength of repression. Aging due to mass emigration, weakening of social organizations, and the absence of a clear opposition movement mean that the "receptacle" for dissent is thinning.

This view aligns with other reports. For example, Reuters reports that while the Cuban economy is severely damaged according to CIA assessments, opinions are divided on whether the government will actually "fall." There is an implication that while hardship may lead to protests, "survival becomes a priority, making political movements difficult."

The British Guardian also describes the current situation as a "polycrisis," with sanctions, policy failures, and the deterioration of public services leading to accelerated population outflow.

6) Reactions on social media: Joy, concern, and "intervention criticism" coexist

The recent remarks quickly ignited social media, the forefront of news consumption. However, social media is not the "entire public opinion." Posts with loud voices spread, and extreme positions stand out. Below are the trends in reactions, considering this bias.

① "Cuban Americans rejoice": Posts welcoming a hardline stance

Posts from pro-Trump commentators and activists, stating that "Cuba is ready to fall" and that "many Cuban Americans will rejoice," have spread.

This reflects a psychological desire to perceive the long-standing hardline stance against Cuba (sanctions and pressure) as a "success," combined with the historical experiences of the exile community.

② "What do you mean 'we control Venezuela'": Backlash against the interventionist stance itself

On the other hand, reactions strongly questioning U.S. foreign intervention are also prominent. As attributed to a Democratic lawmaker, posts juxtaposing Trump's phrases like "we control Venezuela" and "Cuba will fall" have spread in a critical context, questioning whether such an "abduction-like" operation is justified.

This type of reaction focuses more on "how the U.S. treats sovereign nations" than on "toppling dictatorships."

③ "It's not just the regime that will fall": Concerns about humanitarian crises

The third reaction is humanitarian concern. Tightening the "tap" in a society with scarce fuel, food, and medicine will hit civilian life before the regime. Tagged news-sharing posts (media outlets' breaking news posts) repeatedly express concerns that sanctions and pressure might harm ordinary citizens. These concerns connect with reports conveying the current state of economic collapse.

7) What comes after "ready to fall"—Three scenarios

Finally, when considering realistic "next" steps, there is not just one outcome.

• Scenario A: The fuel crisis exceeds a critical point, and the governance apparatus collapses
  If the 30 to 45-day estimate is accurate, a chain reaction of blackouts and logistical disruptions will rapidly worsen security, distribution, and healthcare.

• Scenario B: Life becomes even harder, but the regime endures
  Due to repression, social division, and population outflow, large-scale anti-regime mobilization is unlikely.

• Scenario C: Securing "alternative" external support for survival
  However, the article indicates that signs of support from Brazil, Angola, and Algeria are not visible at this point.

Whether Trump's words "come true" depends more on the realities of energy, foreign currency, and alliances than on the strength of the regime. Social media burns with emotion, but reality runs on fuel. The equation Cuba faces may be that brutally simple.