Increase in COVID-19 Cases in India: Impact on Japanese Business?

According to the official dashboard of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) of India, as of 8 PM (IST) on June 4, 2025, the country has seen a sharp increase in active COVID-19 cases, reaching 4,302 within a week. Notably, Kerala (1,416 cases), Maharashtra (494 cases), Gujarat (397 cases), and the Delhi Capital Region (393 cases) have high numbers. In the past 24 hours, there have been 65 new infections and 5 deaths (1-2 each in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Maharashtra) . The resurgence of infections is attributed to the spread of "immune-evading" subvariants like the Omicron derivative "JN.1", changes in human movement due to the onset of the rainy season, and the co-occurrence of seasonal respiratory diseases. State governments have resumed recommending masks and cluster monitoring, while health authorities are ensuring the readiness of hospital beds and oxygen supply systems

1. Resurgence of Infections in India—Understanding the Current Situation from the Latest Statistics

According to the official tally by the Indian government, the 4,302 active cases as of June 4 represent a 1.6-fold increase in just over 10 days from about 2,600 cases in late May . A breakdown shows that Kerala is particularly prominent, accounting for more than one-third of the total. This pattern is reminiscent of the Delta variant outbreak period of 2020-21, and there are observations among medical professionals that "Kerala's high testing numbers under normal surveillance conditions serve as a proxy indicator for potential infections in other states."

2. What is the "JN.1" Subvariant?

The Omicron lineage **"JN.1"**, first detected in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, late last year, is a descendant of BA.2.86 (commonly known as Pirola), classified by the US CDC as a "Variant Under Monitoring." It possesses 16 mutations in the spike protein and is estimated to have a high ability to evade neutralizing antibodies. After initial outbreaks in Singapore and Thailand, sporadic detections continued within India, and the resurgence of the case curve since May 2025 supports the "correlation between detection frequency and active cases," as commented by the genome consortium INSACOG._TAG_228##+5%

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*The official cumulative death toll is the total since 2020.The data is compiled by the author from MoHFW and various state health department sources. 

4. Voices from the Medical Field—"Now is the Time for Preparation"

Dr. R. Kulkarni from the Department of Infectious Diseases at Reliance Foundation Hospital, a major private hospital in Mumbai, states, "Hospitalizations for moderate or severe cases are still less than one-tenth of the Delta period, but the severe case rate among elderly with underlying conditions remains high. If influenza and dengue fever coincide during the rainy season, bed shortages will be unavoidable." The hospital plans to complete the re-inspection of oxygen pipelines and the expansion of intensive care beds by the second week of June.

5. Will Booster Vaccinations Progress?

In April 2025, the Indian government approved the booster shot of the country's first mRNA vaccine "GemCov-mRNA" (equivalent to a generic version of Moderna). However, the author notes a marked "vaccine fatigue" for the third time since the pandemic, with urban vaccination rates remaining below 20%. The WHO South-East Asia Regional Office stated, "Now is the time for boosters, as evidence shows the waning of immune memory."

6. The Temperature Difference Among Citizens as Reflected on Social Media

• "No more fourth wave. Forgetting masks will bring back the nightmare from five years ago." (Fact-checking account First Check) 

• "4,302 cases? Overreaction despite vaccines and treatments available." (Tech entrepreneur)

• "1,416 cases in Kerala is proof of high testing numbers. Aren't other states too low?" (Medical student) 

• "Both government and private sectors should stop 'mask optional.' Have they forgotten about airborne transmission?" (Health NGO staff) 

This clash between the **"complacent" and the "cautious"** is similar to Japan's "ninth wave" debate, highlighting the "risk perception gap" that becomes prominent in the late pandemic stage.

7. Impact on Japan and Current Border Measures

The Japanese government ended border measures in May 2023, but the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare is internally operating an "Infection Surge Country List," requesting airlines to provide **"voluntary testing with information provision"** for flights from India. The National Institute of Infectious Diseases has also raised the risk of domestic inflow and establishment of the JN.1 lineage to "medium."On the other hand, business travel has fully resumed, and companies are encouraged to reassess the medical evacuation system for Japanese expatriates.

8. Scenarios for the Future as Explained by Experts

1. Optimistic Scenario: The hot and humid rainy season suppresses virus activity, and active cases peak out by mid-July, decreasing to around 2,000.

2. Intermediate Scenario: Small waves of infection persist, stabilizing at 5,000–6,000 cases by early August. The healthcare system is not overwhelmed, and the impact on economic activities remains limited.

3. Pessimistic Scenario: The JN.1 sublineage acquires further immune escape mutations, recreating the Delta phase curve by October. Daily new cases reach 10,000, with an increase in severe cases, leading to the reinstatement of international flight restrictions.

The mathematical epidemiology model from Bangalore Institute of Technology considers the intermediate scenario the most likely, but warns that **"vaccination rates and mask-wearing rates significantly influence model parameters."**

9. Three Points Japanese People Should Know

1. Check the coverage of medical insurance when traveling for business or leisure: Public hospitals offer free treatment, but foreigners are often recommended to use private hospitals.

2. Carry N95 masks and rapid antigen test kits: They can be purchased locally, but price surges and shortages are expected.

3. Ventilation on domestic flights in India: Many are equipped with HEPA filters, but aerosol exposure risk increases when occupancy is at 100%.

10. Conclusion—The Pandemic That "Seems Over But Isn't"

The figure of 4,302 cases this time is negligible compared to the hundreds of thousands in 2021. However, the severity of an infectious disease is determined by the "slope of the curve." Unintentionally, India continues to serve as the "world's largest real-time epidemiology lab," sending us early warning signals of global risks.

"Learning from past pain, how do we suppress a slow but prolonged wave?"

Now is the time for both Japan and India, across government, private sectors, healthcare, and citizens, to explore **"optimization of slow response."**

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Reference Links

This article is written based on public information and various reports. The figures are based on official announcements as of 8 PM (IST) on June 4, 2025, and may be updated in the future.

Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India COVID-19 Official Dashboard  

• INSACOG Weekly Genome Surveillance Report  

• First Check Official X (formerly Twitter) Account  

• Zee Business—Parent Article "Coronavirus News (June 4)"  

• Hindustan Times—"Over 4,000 active cases in India now"  

• Moneycontrol Live Blog (June 4, 2025)  

• Livemint—"Covid-19: Active tally in India crosses 4,000 mark"  

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