Global Warming Won't Stop: How to Survive? New Norms for Climate Adaptation Revealed at COP30

The "Triple Increase" Message from Belém

November 2025, in Belém, a city in northern Brazil. This city, where the scorching humidity and winds from the great Amazon River intersect, has captured the world's attention. It's the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30), commonly known as the "Amazon COP."Wikipedia

Standing at the microphone in one corner of the venue was António Guterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations. He reiterated the warning of the risk of "irreversible damage to the Amazon ecosystem" and urged representatives from various countries that "it is essential to triple the funding for climate adaptation." He described the Paris Agreement's goal of keeping the temperature rise within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels as "barely within our grasp, but slipping through our fingers," and stated, "Ten years since the Paris Agreement, we've made progress, but it's far from enough."InfoMoney

At the beginning of his speech, he praised the "outstanding leadership" of Brazilian President Lula. The Lula administration, focusing on forest conservation and social policies, aims to once again position Brazil on the international stage as a "climate-leading nation." In Belém, its home ground, Guterres spotlighted "adaptation," a theme that had previously been somewhat of a supporting role.InfoMoney

COP30 and the Amazon "Point of No Return"

The fact that COP30 is being held in Belém holds more than symbolic significance. It is the "gateway to the forest" near the Amazon basin, a place where the fate of the world's largest tropical forest is directly linked to the course of the climate crisis.

Scientists have repeatedly warned of the possibility that if the Amazon is subjected to excessive deforestation and warming, the vast forest could rapidly transition to a dry savanna-like vegetation, crossing a "point of no return." The "irreversible damage" Guterres refers to is precisely this scenario, where, once the critical point is crossed, the forest, which should be a carbon sink, could instead become a "massive emitter" of CO₂.InfoMoney

The "Amazon Summit" held in the same Belém in 2023 can be seen as a precursor to this. The "Belém Declaration" adopted there clearly stated that the eight Amazon countries would cooperate to avoid the "Amazon point of no return" through sustainable development and measures against illegal logging.Wikipedia COP30 is positioned as the "main stage" in the continuation of that effort.

"Adaptation" and "Mitigation"—Another Pillar of Climate Action

Here, it's worth clarifying the difference between "climate change mitigation" and "adaptation."

• Mitigation:
  Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or increase carbon sinks like forests to curb global warming itself. Examples include the introduction of renewable energy, phasing out coal, and the spread of electric vehicles.

• Adaptation:
  Efforts to "reshape society and infrastructure to minimize damage" in response to climate changes that are already happening or unavoidable in the future. This includes strengthening levees, early warning systems, switching to heat-resistant crops, and urban heat island measures.Wikipedia

Since the Paris Agreement, much of the world's attention and investment has been directed toward "mitigation." This is because CO₂ reduction can be easily quantified and translated into catchy goals like "carbon neutrality" and "net zero."

On the other hand, adaptation varies by region in terms of "what will happen," and its successes often go unnoticed. The fact that a levee didn't break or that deaths from heatwaves "didn't increase" rarely makes headlines. As a result, funding and political attention have often been sidelined.

A $300 Billion Gap—Why "Triple Increase"?

However, the situation has changed dramatically in recent years. Record-breaking heatwaves, unprecedented floods, and wildfires have become the "new normal," and countries are beginning to realize that "existing infrastructure and social systems cannot withstand it."

The "Adaptation Gap Report 2025" published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that developing countries alone will need $310 to $365 billion annually in adaptation funding by 2035. However, the actual international public adaptation funding that flowed to developing countries in 2023 was only $26 billion, just 1/12 to 1/14 of the required amount.UNEP - UN Environment Programme

To fill this "massive gap," at COP29 (Baku, Azerbaijan), countries proposed a target tomobilize $300 billion annually in climate finance by 2035, but it faced strong opposition from many developing countries as "completely insufficient."The Guardian

This led to the emergence of the "Baku to Belém Roadmap," connecting Baku and Belém. It is a plan to raise the current $300 billion target to as much as $1.3 trillion, with a core focus on "dramatically increasing adaptation funding." Brazil, the host country of COP30, is preparing a large-scale adaptation finance package involving countries, development banks, and private capital for nations exposed to extreme weather.Wikipedia

At the COP30 venue, island nations and African countries repeatedly hit by disasters have formed alliances, arguing that "annual adaptation funding should be tripled to at least $120 billion as a 'first step'." Comparing the actual flow of funds ($26 billion) with the new estimated need ($310 billion), it is still just a "first step."Politico

Expectations and Cold Calculations Echoing in Belém

Guterres' "triple increase" statement is set against this backdrop. However, the atmosphere at the venue is not entirely optimistic.

In the negotiation rooms,

• who will pay how much

• how much will be grants and how much will be loans

• how to attract private capital

• and most importantly, whether the money will truly reach the most vulnerable communities

are some of the mundane yet highly political issues being endlessly debated.

The Brazilian government is poised to champion the cause of securing adaptation funding, not only for its infrastructure investments and Amazon conservation but also as a "spokesperson" for the entire Global South. If it can weave Amazon protection, poverty reduction, and renewable energy expansion into "one narrative," Belém might become a historic COP.Reuters

The Global Temperature Difference Seen on Social Media

These discussions have naturally sparked significant reactions on social media. Here, instead of tracing actual posts, let's summarize some prominent tones on X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram.

1. "Finally, Adaptation Takes Center Stage" from the Global South

From users in Africa, South Asia, and Latin America,

"Finally, the topic of 'adaptation' has made it to the main table. We are already living in a 1.5°C world."

Such welcoming voices are prominent. Along with experiences of losing homes to floods and stories of schools being closed for extended periods due to abnormal heatwaves, there's a sense of urgency encapsulated in a few hundred characters: "Without funding for adaptation, we won't even have a chance to survive."

2. "Adaptation Alone Isn't Enough" from Climate Activists

Meanwhile, in the climate activist community,

"Adaptation is necessary, but on its own, it's just 'bailing water out of a sinking ship.' Without reducing emissions, it means nothing."

This sentiment is repeatedly expressed. Every time the language on phasing out fossil fuels is weakened, criticisms like "Catering to big corporations again" and "Adaptation funding isn't a 'get-out-of-jail-free card'" fly around. The challenge in communication moving forward is how to convey the message that both adaptation and mitigation need to be maximized simultaneously, rather than seeing them as opposing forces.

3. Complex Views Within Brazil

In Brazil's social media space, a different kind of temperature difference is visible.

• Supporters of the Lula administration appreciate the Amazon protection policies and minimum wage hikes as a package, sharing positively that "social justice and climate justice overlap."

• On the other hand, opposition supporters and some in the middle class post complaints like "Prices in the city have gone up for COP" and "Accommodation rates are 'COP prices' and a rip-off."Wikipedia

"The future of the entire planet" and "this month's rent." How to bridge the gap between these is a dilemma faced by climate policies in every country, not just Brazil.

4. Cool Critiques from Northern Countries

On social media in developed countries,

"In the end, are they just saying 'give us more money' again?"
"How can we trust new targets when past promises haven't even been kept?"

Such skeptical comments are not uncommon. While there are some overtly conspiratorial posts, many stem from a simple anxiety about "how much international cooperation can be afforded given limited fiscal capacity."

"For Whom is 'Adaptation' an Investment?"—From the Amazon to Japan

So, what can Guterres' call for "tripling adaptation funding" actually change?

Specific Examples in the Amazon Basin

• Establishment of early detection systems for forest fires

• Introduction and technical support for drought-resistant crops for small farmers

• Support for relocating riverside communities at high risk of flooding to higher ground

• Direct funding for forest management projects utilizing indigenous knowledge

These initiatives not only "reduce damage" but also have the potential to create jobs and boost the local economy.

Not