China Built Too Many, the US Keeps Declining: The Rise and Fall of Shopping Malls - How Online Shopping Accelerated the "Mall Overload"

Prologue: The World's "Shopping Mall Map" Has Been Redrawn

In the 2010s, the United States entered an era of mall closures, with one in six disappearing since 2013. Meanwhile, China accelerated construction, doubling the number of malls to approximately 6,700 during the same period. However, by the mid-2020s, the shadow of oversupply has begun to loom clearly.InfoMoney

An event symbolizing this shift was the closure of the Apple Dalian Parkland (formerly InTime City) store in August 2025. It marked the first closure of a directly operated Apple Store in mainland China, highlighting the "mall disparity" as another mall in the city (Olympia 66) continued operations.South China Morning PostInfoMoneyEl País

What Is Happening: Numbers Speak of Structural Changes

In 2024 alone, about 430 new malls opened in China. Meanwhile, the number of malls in the United States is estimated to be around 1,107, but depending on the definition, it could be around 700. This means the competition has shifted from "quantity" to "quality."InfoMoneyCoaster

The penetration of e-commerce is also decisive. In China, the number of delivery personnel has reached an estimated 10 million, utilizing everything from electric scooters to autonomous trucks and drones. In a world where deliveries arrive within minutes of a click, the "reason to go" to malls must be redefined.InfoMoney

Why It Happened: "Institutional Attention" That Encouraged Development

China's tax system, which relies on local government sales tax revenue, makes it easy to incorporate commercial facilities into large-scale complex developments. The relatively light property tax burden on housing has resulted in a habitual "bundling of commerce," leading to debt-dependent construction that cannot be stopped. Even after the consumption slowdown during the pandemic, inertia remains, and supply adjustments have lagged.InfoMoney

Additionally, the deterioration of department store earnings and the slowdown in luxury consumption have accelerated the "excess of boxes." The latest report from the China Commerce Association for General Merchandise (CCAGM) and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) also indicates a shrinking trend in both sales and net profit for department stores in 2024.ustlfsci.hkust.edu.hk

Winners and Losers: Reasons for Divergence in the Same City

In Dalian, observed by NYT/InfoMoney, the mall from which Apple withdrew is marked by vacant spaces, while another flagship mall sees a return of foot traffic and vibrancy. Tenant composition, experiential quality, access (public transport and parking flow), and space design mindful of "social media appeal"—the accumulation of these slight differences determines the outcome. Dalian's retail sales showed a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, confirming the coexistence of market decline and "winning malls."InfoMoney

The Current State in the U.S.: A Return to "Fewer but Stronger"

The U.S. market is in a phase of reorganization characterized by "reduced total numbers and flagship concentration." Some major owners are accelerating their strategy to retain only flagships in metropolitan areas with high sales, occupancy, and rent growth, while downsizing or selling regional types. This domino effect also leads to a reorganization of tenant quality.Coaster

Summary of Social Media Reactions

• Criticism of Overbuilding: Criticism of policies that favored "box-heavy" development aligned with statistical prosperity.

• Affirmation of Experience Orientation: Demand for "destinationization" with live events, art, gourmet, and community spaces.

• Apple as a Symbol: The perception that the withdrawal of a single company served as a wake-up call for market trends. Many comments in news outlets point to weak consumer sentiment and tectonic shifts in the smartphone market (such as Huawei's resurgence).South China Morning Post

• Polarization of Local Perspectives: Coexistence of welcome sentiments like "local malls are empty and comfortable" and a sense of loss like "the core of life has died."

• Japanese Readers' Impressions: Comparatively realistic perspectives such as "China might be quicker in repurposing" and "What will happen to suburban shopping centers in Japan?"

Future Strategies: Three Directions

1. "Editing of Experiences": Integration of live events, sports, learning, medical, co-working, and community functions.

2. "Crossing of Uses": Transition from commercial to logistics micro-hubs, fitness/education centers, administrative service bases, and urban warehouses.

3. "Direct Connection with Digital": Making inventory visible through live commerce, O2O, and instant delivery, turning malls into "sales and delivery hubs."

Implications for Investors and Operators (Checklist)

• Quality of Foot Traffic: Evaluated by disposable income × duration of stay × revisit rate.

• Tenant Composition: Not the "type" of anchor but whether it can be "eventized."

• Transport and 30-Minute Radius: Friction costs of public transport, parking, and congestion.

• Online Integration: Inventory collaboration, BOPIS (Buy Online, Pick Up In-Store), and instant delivery support.

• Policy and Tax: Outlook on sales tax incentives and usage regulations.InfoMoney

Conclusion: From the Era of "Boxes" to the Era of "Spaces"

The story of "too many malls" is not just about oversupply. It is a narrative of the "reinvention of spaces," intertwined with e-commerce, urban policy, capital markets, and consumer psychology. The United States is moving from quantity to quality, while China stands at a turning point from a plateau of quantity to quality. The next protagonists will be malls that can design a reason to visit.

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