Canadian Public Opinion Shifts Towards "China Over the US" — The Disappointment of Allies Presents Challenges for Japan

On July 16, 2026, a poll reported by Canada's Global News indicated that North American international relations have entered a phase that is difficult to explain with conventional wisdom.

According to the survey, 44% of Canadians had a favorable view of China, while only 33% expressed a favorable view of the United States. Considering that in 2023, the favorable rating for the United States was 57% and for China was 14%, this means that the positions of the two countries have almost completely reversed in just a few years.

Canada shares one of the world's longest borders with the United States and has been deeply intertwined in ways unparalleled by other countries, spanning economy, security, culture, and the movement of people. The fact that China, Canada's largest strategic competitor, has surpassed the United States in Canada is significant.

However, interpreting this result as "Canadians have abandoned democracy and come to trust the Chinese Communist Party" is not accurate.

The essence of this change lies more in a sharp disappointment with the United States rather than unconditional trust in China.

The survey is about "favorable evaluation," not "trust"

The first thing to note is that there is a subtle difference between the word "trust" used in headlines and the actual content of the survey.

The main question asked by the Pew Research Center was whether respondents held a "favorable opinion" of each country. Separate questions were asked about the extent to which they trusted President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs.

In other words, it does not mean that 44% of Canadians fully trust China's political system, security policies, or human rights situation. It is closer to reality to understand that while more people view China positively than before, even more people view the United States negatively.

According to Pew's comparison, in 2026, in 25 out of 36 surveyed countries, favorable evaluations of China surpassed those of the United States. It is not so much that China has suddenly become welcomed worldwide, but rather that the international image of the United States has significantly declined, making China relatively more favorable.

Canada is one of the countries where this change is most symbolically manifested.

The main cause is "backlash against the United States" rather than "China's appeal"

The primary factor worsening Canadian sentiment towards the United States is the trade policies of the Trump administration.

The Canadian economy has long been heavily dependent on exports to the U.S. market. Many industries, including the automotive industry where parts cross the border multiple times, as well as energy, agriculture, forestry, and manufacturing, are based on an integrated North American supply network.

If tariffs or investment pressures are introduced into that relationship, Canadians feel not just economic friction but that their livelihood is being shaken by their neighboring country.

Furthermore, statements treating Canada as if it were the "51st state" of the United States and attitudes referring to Canadian leaders as if they were state governors rather than the prime minister of a sovereign nation were perceived as damaging to Canada's dignity as a sovereign state.

Even if such remarks were considered jokes or negotiating intimidation by the U.S., they are words that disregard the independence of the recipient's country. If a supposed friendly nation like the United States repeatedly exerts pressure, the conventional premise of "trust because they are an ally sharing values" begins to crumble.

In this environment, even if China is not particularly attractive, it can be perceived as more predictable than the United States, leading to a higher evaluation.

China is an authoritarian regime and has had serious issues with Canada. Nevertheless, the Chinese government is not openly using language as if it intends to annex Canada. At least in everyday economic relations, it appears to act as a negotiable partner in areas such as agricultural products, resources, energy, and electric vehicles.

If the United States changes from "the closest friend" to "the strongest pressure," China, once considered dangerous, emerges as a relatively realistic option.

Caution towards China has not disappeared

However, Canadians have not forgotten past conflicts.

The relationship between Canada and China deteriorated with the detention of a Huawei executive, leading to a severe crisis when Chinese authorities detained Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor for about three years.

Concerns remain about human rights issues in Xinjiang, foreign interference in Canadian politics and elections, issues surrounding overseas police outposts, and the safety of Canadians in China.

In another Canadian poll conducted in 2025, while favorable evaluations of China were recovering, a majority still viewed China negatively. There was also a confirmed tendency to prefer economic relations with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan over expanding trade with China.

Therefore, the current 44% is not a blank check for China.

What Canadians are seeking is not to "abandon the United States and join the Chinese camp," but rather options to break away from a state of dependency solely on the United States.

Improving relations with China is just one of those options.

The "responsible engagement" pursued by the Carney administration

The Canadian government is not unrelated to these changes in public opinion.

The Mark Carney administration is working to rebuild economic relations with China and expand export opportunities for agricultural products and energy. In negotiations with the Chinese side, trade issues, including tariffs on some agricultural products and Chinese-made electric vehicles, have been focal points.

What the Canadian side emphasizes is "responsible engagement" that involves consideration for security and domestic industries, rather than unconditional rapprochement.

This is also a typical action of a medium-sized country wavering between value-based diplomacy and economic realities.

No country can completely replace the U.S. market. If dependency on the Chinese market deepens too much, new political risks arise. Therefore, it is necessary to diversify export destinations and investment partners, including relations with Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

The rise in China's evaluation in Canada is driven more by an urgent need for negotiable partners other than the United States than by the idea of choosing China as the only new partner.

Four reactions reflected in social media and online comments

The online reactions surrounding this survey are more intensely divided than the poll numbers themselves.

Global News received numerous comments immediately after the article was published. However, since commenters and social media posters participate voluntarily, they do not represent the entire Canadian population. Particularly in the comment sections of political news, it is important to note that people with strong opinions tend to gather.

With that in mind, the main reactions can be divided into four categories.

1. Strong opposition: "China cannot be trusted"

The most prominent reaction is caution towards China's political system, human rights issues, and foreign interference.

Posters expressed opinions such as it being dangerous to deepen relations with China just because they dislike the Trump administration, that the expansion of imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles weakens domestic industries, and that China strengthens its influence through economic dependence rather than military invasion.

For this group, even if the United States has problems, it shares basic values as a democratic country. On the other hand, China's system itself is different and poses a greater long-term danger.

These reactions also reflect opposition to headlines describing the survey results as "support for China."

2. The view that "the U.S. destroyed its own trust"

On the opposite side, there are voices saying that the responsibility for the current results lies with the United States itself.

The U.S. insulted Canada, shook industries with tariffs, and stopped treating it as an equal sovereign nation. The logic is that while they are aware that China is not a democratic country, at least it has not threatened to annex Canada.

This group is not necessarily pro-China. Rather, they are disappointed that the United States is destroying the principles it was supposed to uphold, such as democracy, alliances, free trade, and international cooperation.

There are also posts with the sentiment that "the world will move on without the U.S.," reflecting doubts about the U.S.-centered international order itself.

3. Distrust of polls and media reporting

The third reaction involves skepticism about the survey's questioning methods and media headlines.

Reactions included claims that reporting that forces a binary choice between China and the U.S. is political, that rephrasing favorable evaluations as "trust" is an exaggeration, and that the survey sample might be biased.

In reality, Pew's survey is designed as a national survey targeting adults in each country, conducted using a combination of phone, face-to-face, and online methods. However, it is also true that poll numbers can fluctuate based on question wording, survey timing, and domestic political situations.

Especially in this case, the numbers should be read as reflecting a momentary evaluation strongly influenced by anti-U.S. sentiment under the Trump administration, rather than a permanent pro-China shift.

4. The pragmatic view that "neither should be relied upon"

Behind the flashy confrontation, an important opinion is that relying on either the U.S. or China is dangerous.

In related Reddit discussions, while acknowledging the need to increase trade with China, there is caution against deepening dependence on China, considering the Taiwan situation and the possibility of economic sanctions.

In another discussion addressing tensions with the U.S., there were posts about canceling trips to the U.S. and avoiding American products, showing how emotions are linked to actual consumer behavior.

Canadian public opinion is not simply divided into pro-U.S. and pro-China factions. There is an uneasy feeling of wanting to reduce dependence on the U.S. but not wanting to depend on China either, which is difficult to resolve.

In Japan, 11% view China favorably, 50% view the U.S. favorably

From Japan's perspective, the temperature difference with Canada is significant.

In the same Pew 2026 survey, 11% of Japanese had a favorable view of China. In contrast, the favorable evaluation of the United States was 50%, 39 points higher than China.

Additionally, when asked whether their government respects the personal freedoms of its citizens, 61% of Japanese answered "respects" for the United States, while only 6% gave the same answer for China.

In Japan, even if the evaluation of the United States has become more critical than before, it has not reached the point where the evaluation of China has reversed.

This difference can be explained by geography and the security environment.

For Canada, China is a distant major power, primarily recognized through economy, diplomacy, foreign interference, and human rights. For Japan, China is a neighboring country across the East China Sea, with direct issues involving territorial disputes, coast guard and military activities, the Taiwan Strait, supply chains, and economic security.

In Japan, where conflicts and tensions with China are easily linked to everyday security issues, the importance of economic relations alone is unlikely to significantly improve the evaluation of China.

At the same time, Japan's security is built around an alliance with the United States. For Canada, the United States is both a huge market and a neighboring country that exerts pressure. For Japan, the United States is also the central deterrent supporting Japan's defense.

The differing evaluations of the U.S. and China in both countries are not due to differences in national character but rather differences in their strategic environments.

Reasons Japan cannot ignore

Canada's changes should not be dismissed as "different conditions from Japan."

The biggest issue highlighted by this survey is not that China has become strongly trusted worldwide, but that the era when the United States was automatically supported by its allies is coming to an end.

Even with significant military and economic power, if a country disregards the sovereignty and interests of others, it loses soft power. While short-term concessions can be extracted using tariffs and intimidation, in the long term, it leads other countries to seek alternative markets and new diplomatic relationships.

China is exploiting the vacuum created there.

The rise in China's evaluation is not a result of being highly regarded for freedom and human rights. It is because the United States has damaged its image as a model of predictability, consideration for allies, and democracy, making China more favorable by comparison.

For Japan, maintaining an alliance with the United States does not automatically stabilize its diplomatic position.

Assuming that trade policies and attitudes towards alliances could change significantly with a change in U.S. administration, it is necessary to layer relationships with Europe, Canada, Australia, India, Southeast Asia, and others.

In fields such as energy, food, critical minerals, semiconductors, and digital technology, excessive dependence on any one country must be avoided. This means not only reducing dependence on China but also critically examining dependence on the United States.

Japan's approach should not be "U.S. or China"

What Japan should learn from Canada's case is not a message to approach China.

The important point is that even with allies, trust is not automatically maintained but is supported by mutual respect and the adjustment of interests.

Japan needs to continue dialogue with China in areas where cooperation is possible, such as economy, climate change, human exchange, and regional stability, while maintaining clear principles on issues of human rights, security, economic coercion, and territory.

It is not realistic to entrust everything to the United States or to relax caution due to the size of the Chinese market.

What is needed is to become a country that does not lose options even as the international environment changes.

Canadians chose "options," not China

The numbers "China 44%, U.S. 33%" do not mean that the world's camps have switched overnight.

It is a warning that even the closest neighbor to the United States will begin to distance itself if it feels its dignity and interests are being disregarded.

Canadians have not forgotten China's authoritarianism. They do not trust China unconditionally. Still, they are no longer as comfortable as they once were