When Women Take a Seat, Peace Persists — Compelling Data Shows Up to 37% Reduction in Recurrence Risk: Why Women's Participation and UN Leadership Work

1. The "Decisive Difference" Highlighted in the 25-Year Milestone

The United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 (Women, Peace and Security: WPS) was adopted on October 31, 2000. This year marks 25 years since this historic decision established the norm of "equal participation of women in peace processes" and "response to conflict impacts" in the international community. Another significant piece of evidence has emerged.
A team of researchers statistically examined 286 agreements worldwide and scrutinized 14 long-term peace processes, finding that institutionalizing "women's participation and inclusion" in peace agreements reduces the likelihood of civil war recurrence by an average of 11%. Moreover, when this process is combined with strong UN leadership, the risk of recurrence can decrease by up to 37%. The numbers speak volumes.

This analysis shows that the principles of WPS1325 are directly linked to the practical benefit of durable peace, beyond mere "goodwill" or "political correctness." UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned in his annual report on October 6 that "the protection and negotiation participation of women and girls are still insufficient," which makes the evidence even more significant. In other words, peace without women is less sustainable. AP News

2. How the Mechanism Works: Inside the Mechanism

Case studies include the Philippines-Bangsamoro, Burundi, Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Commonly observed is the collaboration between women-led civil organizations and the UN, which (1) makes visible the previously invisible needs of communities, (2) incorporates socioeconomic inclusion clauses into agreement texts, and (3) establishes mechanisms for regional dialogue and early warning. Liberia's "Peace Huts" are a symbolic example, where women have redesigned traditional dialogue spaces to function as mechanisms for nipping conflicts in the bud at the community level. liberia.un.org

3. The Shadow of Numbers: The Reality of Funding Shocks

However, there are moves that pour cold water on progress. By mid-2025, the cumulative funding shortfall for UN peacekeeping is expected to reach approximately $2.7 billion, with the unpaid ratio rising to 41%. The budget size has shrunk compared to ten years ago, yet unpaid amounts have increased. This decrease in funding is likely to weaken the "infrastructure" directly linked to women's participation and regional dialogue, potentially undermining the sustainability of peace.

Simultaneously, an international survey conducted by UN Women in March 2025 highlighted severe financial difficulties, with half of women's organizations reporting a "risk of ceasing operations within six months." If aid cuts overlap, the on-the-ground actors will become emaciated. International reports repeatedly convey the "limits" and growing risk of closure faced by women's support organizations. UN Women

4. What Social Media Said: Joy, Frustration, and Homework

The atmosphere on social media surrounding the 25-year milestone is a mix of celebration and crisis awareness.

• Calls for Support and Mobilization: UN Women posted on X (formerly Twitter) with the message "25 years since 1325, equal participation of women." Regional offices and civic groups also posted a series of events and initiatives, expanding awareness and action. X (formerly Twitter)

• Beyond "Tokenism": The African Union's Peace and Security Department posted, "Women's voices should shape outcomes beyond mere participation." Encouraged by the study's "37%" figure, the contradiction of "having a seat but no voice" in the field was shared. X (formerly Twitter)

• Skepticism and Counterarguments: Some threads expressed cynicism like "Including women won't stop wars," and dissatisfaction with the reduction of WPS programs in various countries. In response, supporters presented the latest research results and regional success stories. Reddit

The discussions on social media indicate that the core issue is the **"quality of participation."** It is not merely a numerical target but a design where women have decision-making power in negotiation agendas and implementing bodies—this direction aligns with the mechanisms indicated by the research.

5. Reliability of the Research: What's New?

The focus of this analysis was not merely whether women are present in negotiation teams but whether the inclusion clauses for women are explicitly stated in agreements and whether multi-layered collaboration is operational during the implementation phase.

The combination of comparing 14 long-term processes and statistically verifying 286 agreements is new. The average 11% reduction in recurrence suppression effect, and 37% when combined with UN leadership, were closely linked to the presence or absence of this "institution x implementation." This mixed research design is valuable in quantitatively underpinning past qualitative discussions.

6. Scope for Asia: Homework for ASEAN and Japan

In Southeast Asia, regional frameworks are strengthening, such as the WPS Summit held in Kuala Lumpur. Japan is also in a position to support women-led dialogue platforms under the banner of "development cooperation" and "human security." For example, funding conditioned on a female ratio of 30% or more + granting decision-making power in peace implementation committees and local conflict prevention networks aligns with the mechanisms indicated by the research and is cost-effective. facebook.com

7. How to Create "Meaningful Participation": Five Practical Principles

1. Codification of Agreement Texts: Include specific clauses for women and vulnerable groups in DDR (Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration), land rights, security sector reform, and reconstruction fund allocation. The presence or absence of text affects the risk of recurrence.

2. Permanent Multi-layered Collaboration: Establish "circuits" for early warning and grievance handling with the UN (or regional organizations) x women's civil organizations x local administration. The Liberia "Peace Hut" model is applicable. liberia.un.org

3. "Direct Flights" for Funding: Increase small, repetitive grants (core funding) to women's organizations to reduce administrative burdens. As UN Women warns, funding disruptions halt on-the-ground operations. UN Women

4. Indicators Should Focus on "Impact" Over "Seats": Not just the number of participants, but the number of adopted proposals, the ratio of positions in monitoring bodies, and budget control should be KPIs.

5. Transparency and Accountability: The UN and governments should publish roadmaps for reducing unpaid amounts. Making funding visible is essential for the sustainability of peace.
   
   
   

8. How to Address Counterarguments

To the skepticism that "agreements will be broken even if women are included," the answer is that "how they are included" is crucial. Formal participation has limited effects, but when agreement clauses, implementing bodies, and regional dialogue are all in place, the effects appear as the numbers indicate. Diversifying personnel placements is akin to increasing "social sensors" that can identify overlapping interests and fill gaps in monitoring and implementation. The 11%/37% difference shown in the research visualizes this "design difference."

9. Conclusion: Peace Can Be Designed

Peace is not a matter of "luck." If the design embeds women's participation into the system and is accompanied by consistent leadership from the UN and regional organizations, the risk of civil war recurrence can be reduced. Conversely, if aid cuts and unpaid amounts continue, the carefully designed circuits will be disconnected. The biggest lesson we have learned at this 25-year milestone is the fact that "peace is not gender-neutral." For the next 25 years, not just seats but authority, not just ideals but budgets—these are the minimum conditions for sustainable peace. AP News

Sources (Main)

• Phys.org (The Conversation repost) "Involving women in peace agreements reduces the chance of conflict recurrence by up to 37%" November 3, 2025. Basic information on research methods, figures, and cases.

• AP News: Secretary-General Guterres points out the "absence of women" in the 25 years of WPS1325. AP News

• UN Women: 2025 survey and press release on the funding crisis of women's organizations. UN Women

• Liberia "Peace Hut" related materials. liberia.un.org

• Social Media Reactions (Examples): Official UN Women X posts, AU PAPS posts, related Reddit threads, etc. X (formerly Twitter)