Considering the Future of Asia - The 2030s as the Limit: "Robust Policies" to Increase Birth Rates vs. The Illusion of Compensating with Technology

Considering the Future of Asia - The 2030s as the Limit: "Robust Policies" to Increase Birth Rates vs. The Illusion of Compensating with Technology

2025年10月20日 01:45

Can We Climb Back Up the "Population Cliff"? - East Asia's Declining Birthrate and the Last Chance for "Reversibility"

The declining birthrate in East Asia is no longer just an academic topic or an abstract future concern. Taiwan, South Korea, and China have a total fertility rate (TFR) in the 0-point range, and Japan, which has been hovering at low levels for years, alsosaw its TFR drop to 1.15 in 2024, with births at a historic low of 686,061. If this continues, the population of each country could be nearly halved by 2070. From this strong sense of crisis, Brian Wang from NextBigFuture presents a reversal scenario, suggesting "it's not too late yet." The key lies in a national project with a time constraint ofpushing the TFR back to 2.1 (population replacement level) within 10 to 15 years. The investment scale is3-4% of GDP (possibly 10-25%). Bold and ambitious, but if it can avoid a future of "half the population = half the GDP," the cost-effectiveness is rather high, he argues.NextBigFuture.com


Three Levers: Quick Wins, Structural Reforms, Tech & Culture

Wang's proposal is phased and divided intothree layers: "early effects," "institutional design," and "technology & culture."

  • Years 1–3 (Quick Wins)
    Introduce a set offree IVF (in vitro fertilization) and egg freezing for those under 35 (up to 40), along with a monthly child-rearing allowance equivalent to $2,000. Citing the example of Israel, it is suggested thatthe spread of IVF could increase births by 10-15%. This is an immediate measure toraise the TFR by +0.1 to +0.3.NextBigFuture.com

  • Years 1–7 (Structural Reforms)
    Move towards a lifestyle design that doesn't delay family formation, such as universal childcare, 12-month parental leave shared by both genders, and a four-day workweek. Based on OECD research,the four-day workweek is estimated to have a TFR boosting effect of about +0.15, thus freeing work styles from being a bottleneck to childbirth.NextBigFuture.com

  • Years 1–10 (Tech & Culture)
    Look towards pilot projects for ectogenesis (artificial wombs) in the 2030s, disseminate information to ease eco-anxiety, and gradually acceptimmigrants and conductannual effect audits. While acknowledging the "immigration aversion" culture in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, it is positioned asa transitional bridge.NextBigFuture.com

These three layers are critically important to implement **"before the young cohort thins out." If the number of women of childbearing age decreases,the absolute number of births won't increase even with the same TFR. Therefore, the logic is that **"now"** is the limit.NextBigFuture.com


A Realistic Solution for Japan: The Trinity of Childcare, IVF, and Work Style

Looking at Japan's current situation,with 686,000 births in 2024 (TFR 1.15), the outlook for2025 is a pace of about 665,000 births, which is severe. To bring the TFR closer to 2.1, it requiresa design that fills the "gaps" in the system rather than just uniform benefits. Wang's menu directly addresses Japan's issues (increased IVF use but with cost burdens, prejudice, long working hours, and waiting lists for childcare).NextBigFuture.com


Empirical research also supports this.IMF analysis shows that expanding childcare (especially for ages 0-2) is most effective for increasing births, which can serve as an indicator for Japan's policy priorities. Only when the three conditions of **"being able to work," "being able to entrust," and "being able to return"** are met does the decision to have children become realistic.elibrary.imf.org


How to Face the Debate: "Are We Paying for Births?"

As measures to counter declining birthrates progress, the ethical debate inevitably arises:"Are we buying births with benefits?". However, from an economic perspective,child-rearing has significant positive externalities (the next generation of taxpayers, workers, and innovators benefits society as a whole). Strengtheningallowances, tax reductions, and public services as internalization of these externalities makes sense. In fact,Poland enacted a law in October 2025 for "zero income tax for parents raising two or more children." While the scale varies by country,the boldness of fiscal policy reflects the maturity of national consensus.NextBigFuture.com


Yet, There Are Many "Counterarguments"—Voices and Points of Debate on Social Media

Regarding the proposals in this article,opinions are sharply divided online. In the comments section of the NextBigFuture article, the following points of contention emerged.

  1. Optimism of "Technology Can Compensate"
    The view that "even if the population and working age decrease,productivity can be compensated by AI and robots."The argument is to allocate resources to automation before recovering births.NextBigFuture.com

  2. Cautious View of "Risk of Running Out of Time"
    Using the metaphor "like building a new engine mid-flight," it raises concerns aboutthe time lag in technological progress.NextBigFuture.com

  3. Concept of "Redistribution of Income and Asset Grants (Universal Basic Wealth)"
    The opinion that if wealth derived from intellectual property and AI is evenly distributed, it can create a society wherechildren are not a "financial burden." Emphasizing distribution from "assets" rather than basic income    .NextBigFuture.com

  4. Intense Exchanges Over Views on Family Formation Age
    In response to a post suggesting "society should welcome early marriage and childbirth," strong counterarguments emerged, citingmisreading of historical facts and concerns aboutthe rights and safety of minors. Refutations were also presented using **evidence (historical data on age at menarche, pelvic maturity, and age at first birth)**. This serves as a warning that policy discussions are not simply about "lowering the age."NextBigFuture.com

Additionally, the point of whetherlongevity can offset the impact of population decline is also seen on social media. The thought experiment of"What if people lived to 150?" is intriguing, but it does not guarantee easing the real constraints ofaging and worsening dependency ratios. Structural issues should still be viewed through the trinity ofbirths, immigration, and labor participation.X (formerly Twitter)

 



Science and Data Indicate a "Downward Slope"—But Reversibility Remains

Academically,the global decline in fertility is widespread and persistent. It is a complex phenomenon involvingsocial, economic, and biological factors, and the difficulty of reversal is noted. Therefore,individual policies alone are not effective. What is needed is governance ofsimultaneous deployment of multiple measures, long-term commitment, and effect audits.PMC


The Key is "Time" and "Breadth".Time means accelerating while the cohort's "breadth" remains. Breadth means implementingchildcare, housing, education, healthcare, work style, redistribution, IVF, and information dissemination in a "bundled" manner. Not just one, buta complete set. The country shouldclearly state a 10-year plan that does not waver annually, making the systempredictable in the long term, changing awareness and behavior.


Implementation Design: How to "Bundle" the Five Pillars

  1. Zero Gaps in Childcare for Ages 0–2

    Guarantee of admission rights + securing human resources (wages, training) + diverse providers (local governments, NPOs, in-company). Implementing IMF suggestions on a "surface" level.
    elibrary.imf.org

  2. Zero Income-Linked Burden for IVF and Infertility Treatment

    Visualizethe total burden of medical costs + opportunity costs (leave, visits)
    and compensate. Wang's"realistic approach" of an initial +10–15% birth boost.##HTML_TAG_433

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