President Trump of the United States Suggests a "Near Future" Increase in Import Car Tariffs Again—The Future of Protectionism in Contrast to Japan's Zero Tariff Policy

1. Summary of President Trump's Remarks and Immediate Market Reaction

On June 12 (Eastern Time), President Trump made additional remarks at a White House event celebrating the halting of California's ban on gasoline vehicle sales after 2035. He stated, "It's 25% now, but we might raise it more. Not too far in the future," receiving applause from union leaders present. Immediately following his remarks, Ford shares fell by 1.6% and GM by 1.5% at the New York Stock Exchange.wsj.comm.economictimes.com

2. Current 25% Tariff Mechanism and "Further Increase" Scenario

• Current System: A uniform 25% tax is imposed on passenger cars, light trucks, and major parts from April 3, 2025. This applies to finished vehicles not originating from USMCA countries.whitehouse.gov

• Potential for Increase: Administration officials suggest considering a "35% to 40% plan." Analysis indicates that the maximum could be up to 50% under presidential authority (IEEPA).

• Impact on Domestic Industry: GM has already announced that its EBITDA for 2025 could decrease by up to $5 billion. Parts manufacturers are also being forced to change procurement locations, leading to increased costs.argusmedia.com

3. Hyundai's 2 Trillion Yen Investment and the Truth Behind "Achievements"

In his speech, Trump praised the achievement, stating, "Hyundai is investing $20 billion (approximately 2.9 trillion yen) to build a steel plant in Louisiana." However, there is strong opposition from the business community, arguing that the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) tax credits are the main reason rather than tariffs.

• New Steel Plant in Louisiana: Scheduled to begin operations in 2029, with significant tax incentives from the state government.

• Impact on U.S. Employment: Estimated at 4,500 jobs, accounting for less than 0.1% of the entire U.S. automotive industry.

4. Japan's automobile tariff is "zero"—yet non-tariff barriers remain

Japan abolished passenger car tariffs in 1978, and the current MFN rate for HS8703 (passenger cars) remains 0%.customs.go.jpOn the other hand, the U.S. maintains a 25% tariff on passenger cars and pickups, along with a separate "chicken tax" tariff.

5. Estimated 0.2% GDP reduction and government response

The Cabinet Office's June Monthly Economic Report mentions that prolonged additional U.S. tariffs could reduce GDP by 0.2%. The government is considering support measures focusing on (1) requesting exceptions, (2) supporting additional production of models with a high U.S. production ratio, and (3) shifting exports to ASEAN.reuters.com

6. Impact on the supply chain—Strategies of Toyota, Honda, and Nissan

• Toyota: Announced increased production of a new hybrid SUV at the Kentucky plant. Aiming for "practically duty-free" by raising domestic parts to 75%.

• Honda: Accelerating alliances at the Ohio EV hub. Bringing forward the operation of a joint battery plant with LGES.

• Nissan: Considering shifting from Mexico to Tennessee. Conversely, a return of Nissan suppliers to Japan could increase domestic employment by 3,000.
  
  
  
  

7. How will consumers and the used car market change?

In the U.S. market, the price of imported cars continues to rise, impacting the EV strategies of Tesla, BYD, BMW, and others. In Japan, the price of "re-imported Lexus" remains high, and some used car exporters have temporarily halted exports to the U.S. Due to the 25% tariff and the complexity of the 75% rule (certificate of origin), there have been multiple instances of customs clearance being stopped.english.kyodonews.netjapanesenostalgiccar.com

8. WTO Rules and the Risk of "Retaliatory Tariffs"

The Trump administration unilaterally exercised tariff autonomy based on IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act). Meanwhile, Japan expressed "very serious concerns" with an eye on WTO dispute resolution procedures. If retaliatory tariffs are imposed, U.S.-made beef and medical devices are seen as potential targets.english.kyodonews.net

9. Future Scenario Analysis

1. Gradual Increase Scenario: 35% in August 2025, 40% in January 2026—U.S. Congress may push back, settling in the 30% range.

2. Legal Battle Scenario: Industry groups file an appeal with the Federal Circuit Court, resulting in a temporary injunction. Decision expected in spring 2026.

3. Presidential Election Scenario: Tariffs become a political card, prolonging the issue until the 2028 presidential election.
   
   
   
   

10. Conclusion

President Trump's suggestion of additional tariffs highlighted the symbolic contrast of "U.S. 25% vs. Japan 0%." The clash between Japan, which advocates free trade, and U.S. protectionism, which emphasizes domestic employment, has an immeasurable impact on the global automotive industry. Japanese manufacturers are being pressured to accelerate investment in the U.S. and reorganize supply chains, while the government is being pushed to develop WTO strategies and industry support measures. The outcome of the tariff war will become a key factor influencing the global economy in the coming years, involving consumer prices, technological innovation, and environmental regulations.

Reference Articles

• The Wall Street Journal, “Trump Considers Raising Auto Tariffs,” Jun 12 2025. wsj.com

• The Economic Times, “Trump says may raise US auto tariffs in ‘not too distant future’,” Jun 12 2025. m.economictimes.com

• Reuters, “Japan remains cautious on tariff impact in June econ report,” Jun 11 2025. reuters.com

• White House Official Fact Sheet "Adjusting Imports of Automobiles and Automobile Parts Into the United States" (March 26, 2025)whitehouse.gov

• Japan Customs "Tariff Schedule as of Apr 1 2025"customs.go.jp

• WC Shipping, “Japan’s Zero-Tariff Policy,” May 2025. wcshipping.com

• Kyodo News, “Japan deeply concerned about U.S. reciprocal tariffs,” Apr 3 2025. english.kyodonews.net