Why "Stores You Visit Every Week" Are Strong: Walmart Steady, Target Slowing Down in 2025

Target Slows Down, Walmart Holds Steady——The Divergence in Foot Traffic in 2025 Was Due to the Difference Between "Essentials" and "Discovery"

In 2025, the two giants of American retail, Target and Walmart, are experiencing contrasting trends in foot traffic. TheStreet reports, based on data from location analytics firm Placer.ai, that "while Target's foot traffic is declining in 2025, Walmart is maintaining and gaining customers." The underlying reason is the difference in business models: whether to focus on "high-frequency purchases" of essentials or lean towards "discovery and premium orientation." When we look at the actual numbers, this difference becomes more three-dimensional.The Street

Data Reveals the Difference in "Frequency"

According to Placer.ai's Q2 (May–July) analysis, Walmart's same-store foot traffic remained within a range of +0.8% to -1.6% year-over-year, essentially stable. In contrast, Target has been gradually declining since February this year, with a decrease range of -2.2% to -9.7%. The difference in frequency is also notable, with "heavy visitors" who visit more than four times a month accounting for about 34% at Walmart, compared to only 14% at Target. The numbers confirm the structure where Walmart is strong in everyday shopping, while Target is "discovery-oriented" with lower visit frequency.placer.ai

The Reality that Omnichannel Does Not "Cannibalize" Physical Stores

The conventional wisdom that e-commerce expansion cannibalizes physical stores is being refuted by Walmart. In the April 2025 quarter, U.S. same-store sales rose by +4.5% (excluding fuel), with about 3.5 points driven by e-commerce. Yet, as mentioned earlier, store visits remained almost flat. In June, they launched a rebranding with "Walmart, Who Knew," emphasizing one-hour delivery and a massive marketplace. The synergy between digital growth and physical stores is proving successful.placer.ai

On the other hand, Target also saw digital sales grow by +4.7% in the last quarter, with same-day delivery expanding by over 35%, but crucially, "store" same-store sales were down by -5.7%. The growth in online sales is not enough to offset the decline in in-store sales.placer.ai

The Headwinds——The Cooling of "Discretionary" Spending and the Redefinition of Brand Position

Target's strength lies in the discovery experience of "slightly better things" through stylish private/exclusive brands and collaborations. In fact, their collaboration with Kate Spade in 2025 was, according to the company, "the most successful design collaboration in a decade." However, when consumers return to value and essentials, this pillar of "discretionary spending" becomes a headwind. Placer.ai points out that while touching on complex factors including policy and public opinion, the current weakness is in the context of a broader demand shift.placer.aiQuartz

Investor sentiment is also harsh. Recently, BofA downgraded Target from "neutral→underperform" and lowered its price target. Concerns include a decrease in mobile app usage (-14% in July) and limited room for price adjustments due to tariff risks.Barron'sMarketWatch

Voices on Social Media——Consumers Sway Between "Price," "Experience," and "Values"

The recent article by TheStreet spread on X (formerly Twitter), with comments highlighting the "price x essentials" context, such as "the superiority of the Target experience for the price has diminished" and "in the end, it's about groceries and daily necessities." On the other hand, there are also strong value-based comments like "disappointment with the retreat of DEI" and "backlash against it." In community discussions on store sites (such as Reddit's r/Target), there are voices lamenting the decline in experiential value, saying, "It used to be cleaner and better staffed than Walmart."X (formerly Twitter)Reddit

In Facebook news threads, fragmented information such as "continuous decline in visits" and "continuing boycott" is shared, leading to a back-and-forth of pros and cons. However, it is important to note that Quartz supplements Placer.ai's view by stating that "weather, economy, and other variables can also have an impact," avoiding a linear causation. The "heat" of social media can both amplify and distort the true cause——this asymmetry should always be kept in mind.FacebookQuartz

Discussion Points for the Second Half of 2025——Redesigning "Value x Experience"

• Target: Can they refine their essentials while redesigning their "discovery" strengths? To boost visit frequency, it's necessary to increase specific "reasons to go" beyond just price appeal. In a market where off-price TJX and low-cost Five Below are thriving, recreating the "treasure hunting" experience could also be effective.placer.ai

• Walmart: Balancing the growth of e-commerce with the resilience of physical stores. The focus is on whether they can capture the "trade-down" of high-income groups and increase the proportion of non-essentials through rebranding.placer.ai

Editorial View——Three Prescriptions to Regain "Frequency" (for Target)

1. Thorough Mission-Based Merchandising: Clearly define the "one-stop" nature of food and daily necessities in terms of time value. Optimizing the flow of "weekly shopping" with instant delivery/pickup is the shortest route as a frequency lever.

2. Periodic "Reasons to Go": Design seasonal x collaboration x experiences (demonstrations, workshops) quarterly to "calendarize" visits.

3. Transparent Price Communication: Fulfill the responsibility to explain tariffs and cost increases while controlling perceived prices with "actual discounts" linked to membership/basket.MarketWatch

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