"Promise of 'No Invasion' - Trump's Revelation of Xi's Assurance. Is the Taiwan Strait Really Secure?"

"During my tenure, I won't make a move on Taiwan"—this promise allegedly made by Chinese President Xi Jinping to U.S. President Trump on FOX News brought a momentary calm to the Taiwan Strait. However, Xi's reported statement that "China is very patient" suggests continued pressure over a long timeline. Can words serve as a deterrent, or are they merely a temporary market factor? By examining the context of the statements, reactions from involved parties, and the sentiment on social media, we can decipher the current state of the Taiwan Strait. Reuters

What Was Said—The Essence of the Statement

On August 15 (U.S. Eastern Time), Trump claimed on FOX News' "Special Report" that Xi had conveyed to him, "I will never invade Taiwan while you are president." He also quoted Xi saying, "China is very patient." The timing of this revelation, just before the U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska, drew attention. The statement itself was quickly reported and followed up by major media outlets worldwide, including Reuters. ReutersThe GuardianInvesting.com

China's Official Stance

Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in the U.S., described the Taiwan issue as "the most important and sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations," demanding that the U.S. adhere to the "One China" principle and the three communiqués. Although he did not touch on the authenticity or details of the promise, he responded with existing principles. Thus, there are no signs that this statement has shifted China's basic stance at this point. Reuters

Taiwan's Initial Reaction

The Taiwanese government refrained from immediate comment, but Wang Ting-yu, a legislator from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, stated on social media, "We cannot rely on promises from adversaries. Strengthening our self-defense capabilities is fundamental, not just relying on support from friends." This reiterated the long-held belief in Taiwan's security community of "self-help, mutual aid, and U.S. assistance." The statement resonated with domestic supporters and symbolized a message of "balance between expectation and caution" externally. Reuters

Social Media Reactions—Three Trends

1) Voices Valuing "Deterrence Through Words"

Immediately after the report, international journalists and security experts on X (formerly Twitter) introduced the statement. For instance, Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin, South China Morning Post's Finbarr Bermingham, and think tank analyst Derek J. Grossman quoted it, spreading its newsworthiness. This led to the perception that "direct communication between U.S. and Chinese leaders can prevent short-term miscalculations." X (formerly Twitter)

2) Skepticism About "Uncertain Effectiveness"

On the other hand, skeptical posts highlighted that "unofficial promises are unverifiable and do not constrain actions." Particularly, the phrase "China is patient" was emphasized, with many pointing out that it aligns with a long-term strategy that takes time as an ally. Summary posts from news accounts also implied that "long-term intentions remain." X (formerly Twitter)

3) Emphasis on Self-Reliance in the Taiwanese Community

The statement by a Taiwanese ruling party legislator on "self-reliant defense capabilities" was quoted by international media, reaffirming the consensus in online public opinion both inside and outside Taiwan that "building capabilities is more important than external promises." English-language media from Taiwanese newspapers also followed the series of developments while conveying domestic perceptions. ReutersTaipei Times

Why Now—Reading the Context

In Trump's second term, U.S.-China relations are prone to fluctuations between dialogue and pressure. In June, phone talks between the two leaders were confirmed, and informal calls were rumored in April. The mention of this "promise" came just before U.S.-Russia negotiations over responses to Russia, serving as a broad "strategic leverage" signal. In other words, it was a statement made within a "simultaneous equation" linking U.S.-Russia, U.S.-China, and U.S.-Taiwan relations. ReutersThe Guardian

Implications for Markets and Security

In the short term, whenever headlines about Taiwan Strait risks calm down, stocks with high exposure to Taiwan, such as semiconductors and shipping, tend to react. However, in the medium term, as long as the People's Liberation Army's gray zone activities (ADIZ incursions, maritime police law operations, cyber activities, etc.) continue, the risk premium will not be fully eliminated. The current "deterrence through words" may temporarily lower the probability of accidental conflicts, but it highlights a two-layer structure where structural tensions persist.

The Essence of the "Promise"—Deterrence is "Capability × Will × Trust"

For deterrence to function, three elements are necessary: (1) capability, (2) willingness to act, and (3) mutual trust and communication. Xi's "promise" relates to (3) but does not substitute for (1) and (2). Wang Ting-yu's "self-help" argument precisely addresses this point. For Taiwan, enhancing missile defense, mobility and dispersion, reserve force reform, and wartime sustainability (fuel, ammunition, repairs) from peacetime will create stronger deterrence than words. Reuters

Future Points of Interest (Checklist)

• Frequency of Chinese and Taiwanese Military Aircraft and Naval Activities: Will the tempo decrease, or will normalization deepen under the guise of "patience"?

• U.S.-Taiwan Equipment Transfers and Joint Training: While visible progress can serve as a deterrence message, it may also provoke a backlash from China.

• Next U.S.-China Leader Calls/Meetings: Can the current "words" be institutionalized (e.g., crisis management hotlines)?

• Impact of Domestic Politics: Domestic events such as the U.S. election cycle and important meetings within the Chinese Communist Party can influence external messaging.

Conclusion

To the question "Can peace be maintained by promises?" the answer this time is "Partially yes." Communication between top leaders reduces the probability of miscalculations. However, the foundation of deterrence ultimately lies in the capabilities and institutionalized mechanisms of each party. Taiwan should focus on self-help, while the U.S. and China should institutionalize crisis management. The next challenge is whether the calm brought by words can be transformed into genuine stability through policy. ReutersTaipei Times

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