Putin Residence "Target" Theory: Russia Announces "Evidence Presentation" — Will the Atmosphere for Peace Talks Change?

"Presenting Evidence" Russia, the Stage is "Putin's Residence"—Year-End Claims as a Diplomatic Card

From the end of the year to the beginning of the new year, Russia suddenly put forth the claim that "Ukraine targeted President Putin's residence (presidential facilities) with drones." Brazil's economic media InfoMoney (Reuters distribution) reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Telegram that "the final target of the attack drones on December 29, 2025, was the presidential facilities in the Novgorod region," based on decoded route information. InfoMoney

The reason this claim is noteworthy is that it goes beyond mere "military news." The Russian side has hinted that this could be a material that could influence their negotiating stance in negotiations with the U.S. (discussions aimed at ending the Ukraine war). as a material that could influence their negotiating stance in negotiations with the U.S. (discussions aimed at ending the Ukraine war). InfoMoney

"91 Long-Range Drones" and "Decoded Data"—What is Russia Saying?

According to reports, Russia claims that "91 long-range attack drones were deployed," and that the air defense network prevented any damage or casualties. Furthermore, it was reported that a senior Russian military official handed over parts of the drones, which supposedly contained navigation data, to U.S. military attachés, explaining that "the target was President Putin's residence." parts of the drones, which supposedly contained navigation data Reuters

Russia's intentions are clear. Firstly, the narrative that "the residence of the national leader was targeted, not the capital or the front lines" is likely to evoke a sense of crisis and unity domestically. Secondly, internationally, it could spread the impression that "Ukraine chose escalation," potentially serving as leverage in ceasefire negotiations.

However, counterarguments and "lack of substantiation" are also progressing simultaneously—Ukraine, EU, and U.S. intelligence deny

On the other hand, this claim immediately provoked backlash. Reuters reported that Ukrainian and EU officials dismissed Russia's explanation, and further mentioned reports that U.S. intelligence agencies hold the assessment that "there is no evidence confirming that President Putin or his residence was targeted." Reuters

Another report conveyed that local residents said they "did not feel any signs of a large-scale attack." Multiple testimonies from around Valdai in the Novgorod region indicated that there were no alarms or explosion sounds, the "usual signs," which amplified skepticism on social media. The Moscow Times

"Did It Happen / Is It Staged?"—The "Verifiability" Contested in the Information Space

What is important here is that modern drone attacks are often partially verified through **open-source traces (geolocation of videos, fires, smoke, municipal announcements, etc.)**. Events with a lack of such "verifiability" are more likely to be consumed as "narratives" tied to political purposes.

In fact, the Ukrainian side has positioned this matter as "fabricated," claiming it is an information operation to obstruct diplomatic efforts. Ukrainian officials' social media posts have been introduced, with President Zelensky referring to it as "an excuse for obstructing peace or additional attacks." ukrinform.net

Social Media Reactions—"It's an Information War," "No, It's Technically Possible"... Divided Perceptions

This incident was extremely symbolic in terms of how it was perceived "outside the battlefield," namely on social media. Based on publicly available information within the scope of verification, the main points can be summarized as follows (※This is not an exhaustive list of specific posts, but a summary of points formed by various reports and official announcements cited on social media).

1) "Peace Negotiation Disruption / Information War" Theory
It was reported that a Ukrainian Foreign Ministry official posted on X (formerly Twitter) that "Russia is creating an excuse to refuse progress in peace," which was linked on social media to the view that "an 'incident' occurs during negotiation phases." ukrinform.net

2) Doubts About "Lack of Local Sensation"
Testimonies from residents circulated, saying "it was quiet that night," "the town should be in an uproar, but nothing happened," and on social media, doubts intensified with questions like "Wouldn't there be more traces if it were a large-scale attack?" The Moscow Times

3) "Technically Within Range" Theory (Possibility and Fact Are Different)
On the other hand, the technical argument that Ukraine could possess long-range strike capabilities also spread. The issue is not "can/can't," but rather "did it happen," according to this summary. The Independent

4) What Does the "Debris" Handed to the U.S. Mean?
The report that Russia presented drone parts to the U.S. side sparked conflicting interpretations on social media, such as "it was a formality to present evidence" and "an act to pressure the negotiating partner." Reuters

Where to Focus—The Future Focus is on "Publicly Verifiable Evidence"

To gain credibility for such claims, materials that can be verified by third parties are essential. For example, the provenance of the debris (preserved chain of custody), the method of presenting decoded data, the consistency of the flight path, and the presentation of geographical and temporal evidence will be focal points.

On the other hand, it is also true that the countries involved are reluctant to release information during wartime, making complete transparency unlikely. Therefore, on social media, it becomes important to "avoid rushing to conclusions." This incident has once again highlighted the characteristic of modern warfare that "the way an event is narrated" moves diplomacy and public opinion as much as "the event itself.""the way an event is narrated" moves diplomacy and public opinion as much as "the event itself."