Economy!? Political Situation!? Thailand on the Brink with 1.5% Growth and the Frenzy of "Resignation" Calls

2025年06月21日 03:21

1. June 20th — Political Shock Triggered by "Phone Leak"

On the morning of June 20th, a Reuters news flash was released: "Thai economy on the brink. Political turmoil threatens to derail recovery efforts." reuters.com. The trigger was a leaked private phone conversation between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen that occurred two days prior. The Prime Minister referred to the military commander as an "opponent" and praised Hun Sen as "uncle," which enraged nationalists and military conservatives, leading the second-largest coalition party, Bhumjaithai, to announce its withdrawal.

2. The 3.78 Trillion Baht Budget Faces a Double Hold

The fiscal year 2026 budget, considered a lifeline for the economy (3.78 trillion baht, approximately 11.5 trillion yen), must pass both houses by the start of the fiscal year on October 1st. However, if the dissolution of parliament becomes a reality, deliberations will return to square one, creating a void in public investment reuters.com. Government spending has already plummeted by 38% year-on-year in April and May, and OCBC warns of a "double punch" from export stagnation and fiscal deceleration.

3. High Household Debt and the Shock of a 36% U.S. Tariff

Household debt remains at 90% of GDP, and the Bank of Thailand's financial normalization is increasing the repayment burden on variable-rate loans. On top of this, the Trump administration's announcement of retaliatory tariffs of up to 36% adds pressure, making the worst-case scenario of "1% annual growth" more plausible investing.combloomberg.com.

4. Current Status in Numbers — Cooling Indicators

SET Index: Year-to-date -23.4% (closing price on 6/20) reuters.com
Consumer Confidence: May 2025 = Lowest level in 27 months
JSCCIB GDP Forecast: Revised downward to 1.5–2.0% jetro.go.jp
Automobile Production: Negative for 21 consecutive months jtbf.info

The numbers indicate a scenario where all three pillars—demand, investment, and exports—are under strain.

5. "Demo Risk" Creeping into the Travel and Service Industry

Tourism is the backbone earning 15% of GDP, but both opposition student groups and right-wing forces are planning demonstrations in the capital. reuters.com. The president of the Thai Hotel Association expressed concern to Reuters, saying, "If street clashes occur, there will be a surge in accommodation cancellations." For Thai tourism, which has been slow to recover from the pandemic, political demonstrations are truly the "last weapon."

6. Top 100 CEOs Survey—Plummeting Government Approval Ratings

According to a flash survey by Nation Thailand, 83% of CEOs responded that "the Prime Minister should resign or seek a vote of confidence through a parliamentary dissolution." nationthailand.com. The anxiety from the corporate sector boils down to "inability to make investment decisions" due to delays in public works and stalled trade negotiations.

7. Hashtag Wars Raging on Social Media

#IngResign / #แพทองธารลาออก (Paetongtarn Resign)
#SaveThaiEconomy (Save the Economy)
#BudgetNow (Budget Now)

Business Today reported that at one point, more than 50,000 posts per hour were flowing on Thai-language X (formerly Twitter).

Conservatives condemn it as "insulting the military," while young liberals target "delays in economic policy." Thai Examiner warns that "the war of words on social media could spark real street clashes." thaiexaminer.com.

8. Overseas Investors' "Tiptoe" Withdrawal

Bloomberg points out that "in May, $1.12 billion in foreign funds flowed out, marking the largest capital flight in ASEAN." bloomberg.com. JP Morgan has lowered the year-end target for the SET index from 1600 to 1450, adding a political risk premium of 1.5 points.

9. Ghosts of History—Fears of a Coup Resurgence

Thailand has experienced 13 coups since 1932, two of which targeted the Shinawatra family. theguardian.com. While the military leadership issues statements calling for "solutions within the framework of democracy," the public jokes darkly about "tanks rolling through the streets again."

10. Reading "Thailand in Six Months" by Scenario

| Scenario | Political Developments | 2025 Growth Rate | Exchange Rate (THB/USD) | Investor Sentiment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: Early Resolution | Ruling Party Reorganization + Budget Approval | 2.0% | 34 | Improvement |
| B: Election Held | Election in Second Half → Budget Delay | 1.2% | 35.5 | Uncertainty |
| C: Coup d'état | Transition to Military Rule | 0.5% | 37 | Maximum Risk-Off |

*Growth rates are author's estimates (referencing external agency ranges).

11. Impact on Foreign Companies—Supply Chain Shaken

Japanese automakers state they have "1.5 months' worth of inventory," but the JIT (Just-In-Time) supply chain for electronic components and chemicals is vulnerable to traffic blockades. During the 2014 coup, port logistics were halted for four days, delaying the shipment of 43,000 completed vehicles.

12. Changes in Fiscal Management—The Fate of Digital Wallet Distribution

The flagship policy of the Pheu Thai government, the "10,000 Baht Digital Distribution," is a card for economic stimulation, but the bill backing its funding remains stalled in parliament. The opposition criticizes it as "pork-barrel spending," and even within the ruling party, fiscal discipline advocates are rebelling reuters.com.

13. The Deep-Rooted Border Issue—"Historical Resurgence" with Cambodia

AP News reported that "the frontline inspection in Ubon Ratchathani Province is a performance in step with the military" apnews.com. However, on Cambodian social media, there is a surge of hardline opinions demanding "Thailand apologize," becoming a potential spark for ASEAN diplomacy.

14. Ripple Effects on Citizen Life—Prices and Employment

With the minimum wage frozen, real income has been negative for two consecutive years. The price of a bowl of street stall noodle soup has risen from 50 baht to 60 baht, and according to Ministry of Labor statistics, 19% of non-regular workers have turned to "side job apps." The unemployment rate is low, but the decline in disposable income is severe.

15. Conclusion—Who Can Defuse the "Economic Time Bomb"?

While emotional conflicts are intensifying on social media, if the real economy collapses, all citizens will suffer. Political leaders have no choice but to transcend party lines to pass the budget and focus on trade negotiations with the United States and the reconstruction of tourism. Over the past 20 years, Thailand has shown its "resilience" in times of crisis. This time, too, that resilience is being tested—time is running out.

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