"The Impact of the 'Embargo': NVIDIA's Post-China Strategy and Prospects in the Japanese Market"

1. Introduction—The Game-Changer of "Excluding China"

On June 13, an exclusive article from TechCrunch shook the global semiconductor industry. "NVIDIA to Exclude China from Performance Forecasts"—the statement by CEO Jensen Huang quickly spread and cooled the NASDAQ, which was bubbling with the AI boom. In an interview with CNN, Huang also stated that the expectation of lifting export restrictions is merely a "bonus," declaring a "graduation" from dependency on the Chinese market.techcrunch.comreuters.com

2. Background—The US-China Tech Cold War and the H20 Shock

In April 2025, the US effectively blocked the export of high-performance AI chips, including the H20, to China. As a result, NVIDIA estimates an opportunity loss of $2.5 billion in the first quarter and up to $8 billion in the second quarter. With sales to China accounting for about 12.5% of the company's total, amounting to $460 million, the impact is significant. Although the purpose of the export restrictions is "security," Huang criticizes the "questionable effectiveness" and calls for clear rule-setting and long-term evaluation.reuters.com

3. The Meaning of the Decision—Incorporating the "Unexpected" into IR Strategy

There are three reasons why NVIDIA deliberately excludes China. First, shareholder communication. Assuming an optimistic scenario could once again lead to a "guidance downward revision shock." Second, optimizing the product roadmap. The cost and lead time of designing and mass-producing special specification chips requiring export permits are significant. Third, a message to the US government. By visualizing political risks and showing the negative impact on the market with numbers, there is also an aim to prompt reconsideration of regulations.

4. Five Shockwaves Spreading to the Global Market

1. Seismic Shift in Data Center Demand

   • Chinese Cloud Giants Accelerate Shift to AMD and Huawei.

2. High Costs for AI Startups

   • Global GPU Shortage Worsens Again. Cloud GPU Rental Prices Rise by an Average of 18% Over the Past Month.

3. Polarization of Memory, Substrate, and Manufacturing Equipment Stocks

   • US Micron Enjoys Benefits of Strengthened Regulations, While Taiwanese PCB Suppliers Slow Down.

4. "Blackwell Advancement" Effect

   • Demand for Next-Generation B100/B200 Arises Ahead of Schedule Outside China, and NVIDIA Focuses on Yield Improvement.

5. Revival of Geopolitical Premium

   • Investors Reassess "China Risk," Shifting Expectations for Alternative Growth to Japan, India, and the Middle East Markets.

5. Impact on Japan—Winners and Losers

In the Tokyo market, the "NVIDIA-related stock index" fell by 2.3% immediately after the report, but major semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies like Disco and Advantest rose instead. With the yen depreciating, Kabutan analyzed the fluctuations in individual investor sentiment in a bulletin titled "Key Points in Semiconductor Strategy."kabutan.jp

On the other hand, domestic AI startups that focus on GPU rentals as their core business are facing a setback. The increase in cloud charges is squeezing profits, accelerating the rush to secure funding beyond Series B.

6. Observations on Social Media—Debates on "X" and Weibo

Just three hours after the report, "#NVDA Shock" rose to fifth place in Japan's trending topics on X (formerly Twitter).

• Optimists (Individual Investors): "Performance will grow even without China. Mass production of Blackwell will lead to buying on dips."

• Cautious (Engineers): "Without access to computational resources above H20, Chinese AI ventures will instead advance distributed learning."
  Official accounts of SCMP and Reuters China also posted rapid updates, with comments such as "America's self-harm" and "NVIDIA can't escape" appearing in the comment sections.twitter.comx.com
  Furthermore, in the Japanese-speaking sphere, links to Kabutan articles spread, and the "contrarian theory" that "manufacturing equipment stocks actually benefit" gained traction.kabutan.jp

7. Expert Perspectives—Long-term Growth Remains Unshaken

Bank of America analyzed that the impact on earnings would be limited to a maximum of 8% based on 2025 figures, while Morgan Stanley emphasized that dependency on China would further decrease during the Blackwell era.barrons.com
The Semiconductor Policy Team at Japan's Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry (RIETI) pointed out that Japanese companies hold the key in the supply chain with back-end processes and advanced lithography equipment. The future trajectory of government subsidies will be crucial.

8. Future Scenarios—A Compass for the "Multipolar" Era

1. Regulatory Easing Bonus Scenario

   • By 2026, US-China trade negotiations progress, and export permits for specific-use chips are gradually lifted.

2. Distributed Shift Scenario (Base Case)

   • NVIDIA sells "Sovereign AI" models for the Middle East, India, and Europe. The Chinese market is divided and absorbed by AMD, Huawei, and domestic ASICs.

3. Regulatory Enhancement Scenario

   • The shipment halt extends to the Blackwell generation, causing ripples in Samsung and TSMC's production plans.

9. Conclusion—A Future Greater than the "Lost 12%"

NVIDIA's decision may seem like a significant revenue forfeiture at first glance. However, on the flip side, it can be said that the "China risk" has become more unpredictable. The AI demand is growing explosively in markets excluding China, offering numerous opportunities for Japanese companies in design contracting, capital investment, and cloud AI services. The next major phase of the semiconductor war will be where the Blackwell derivative chips are mass-produced in 2026—at that time, Japanese manufacturing might once again be in the spotlight.