New Committee Established to Save Nigeria's Cocoa Industry! What is the Unexpected Commonality with Japan?

1. Global Cocoa Shock and the Reassessment of Nigeria

From the end of 2024 to the spring of 2025, major producing countries Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana experienced successive diseases and droughts, leading to an unprecedented high price of nearly $11,000 per ton on the London futures market.reuters.com Amid the "chocolate crisis," Nigeria, a previously overlooked production area, is gaining attention. In the 1960s and 70s, it boasted an 18% global share, but after the oil boom, its policy priority declined, reducing its share to around 6.5%. Challenges such as deteriorating infrastructure, aging plantations, quality disparities, smuggling, and theft were piling up.

2. Background of NCMB's Establishment: The Government's Return to "Agriculture × Export"

On May 5, 2025, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved the bill for the establishment of NCMB. Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, explained that it would "integrate research, financing, and price stabilization under one roof."vanguardngr.com In the same month, Vice President Shettima also emphasized, "We will provide comprehensive support from production to processing to remove the label of 'raw material exporting country.'"allafrica.com

3. The Five Missions of NCMB

1. Price Stabilization and Purchase Mechanism
   Setting a minimum purchase price linked to international markets to curb bargaining by brokers and smuggling.

2. Quality and Traceability
   Standardizing fermentation and drying criteria nationwide and assigning grades through lab testing. Visualizing the entire supply chain with a digital ledger.

3. Research and Development and Extension Workers
   In collaboration with CRIN (Cocoa Research Institute), distributing 50 million high-yield, disease-resistant clone seedlings annually.en.wikipedia.org

4. Access to Finance and Insurance
   Establishing low-interest loans guaranteed by the central bank, weather anomaly insurance, and a youth farming fund.

5. Domestic Processing Incentives
   Applying tariffs on bean exports and tax reductions on paste, butter, and powder exports to increase the processing ratio from 10% to 40%.

4. Expectations and Caution Intersect on Social Media

On Twitter (now X), <#NaijaCocoa> is trending. CFAN (Cocoa Farmers Association) welcomes the move, stating, "The government is finally getting serious."twitter.com On the other hand, economist Latifa Balogun warns, "The old Cocoa Board of the 1970s was dismantled due to corruption and inefficiency. Reproduction without transparency is a repeat of the past." There are also doubts from general users, such as "Will the minimum price setting reflect in consumer prices?" and "We've heard enough empty promises about youth farming."

5. Comparison with Ghana COCOBOD

Ghana has COCOBOD, established in 1947, which maintains a system that comprehensively manages floor prices, quality inspections, and export licenses. The farmers' take-home rate (FOB basis) is about 75%, surpassing Nigeria's around 55%. While NCMB aims to model itself after COCOBOD, the large population and state authority make it difficult to transfer the system easily.

6. Sustainability and Japanese Companies' Procurement Strategies

Environmental and human rights risks remain high, such as the illegal logging issue in the Omo Forest Reserve pointed out by AP News.apnews.com Companies like Morinaga & Co. and Meiji Holdings have set goals for "100% traceable cocoa procurement by 2026" and are closely watching the alignment between NCMB's digital ledger and international certifications (such as RA/UTZ). The price surge is offsetting the "sustainability premium," and the entry of Nigerian bean-to-bar products into the Japanese market is becoming more active.

7. Challenge ①――Funding and Governance

NCMB's first-year budget is 200 billion Naira (about 300 million dollars). The funding sources consist of export taxes, treasury subsidies, and World Bank loans, but the fiscal capacity is limited due to rapid currency depreciation and low oil prices. A "cooperative model" is being considered, where 6 out of 15 board members are farmer representatives, and audits are conducted by independent accountants and civic groups, but legislation is still in progress.

8. Challenge ②――Security and Infrastructure

In Cross River and Ondo states, cocoa theft is rapidly increasing, leading to an abnormal situation where private vigilante groups are responsible for night patrols. The deterioration of roads and ports is also serious, with logistics costs reaching 18% of FOB, nearly double that of Ghana. Since NCMB does not directly control the infrastructure budget, cooperation with state governments and the Minister of Transport is essential.

9. Market Scenarios and Numerical Targets

The government aims to achieve

• Production volume: 300,000 → 600,000 tons

• Processing rate: 10 → 40%

• Average farmer income: +150%
  . Even after the price shock stabilizes in 2026–27, global demand is expected to grow by 2–3% annually, leaving significant room for market share recovery in the medium to long term.

10. Conclusion――Keys to the Success of the "Rechallenge"

NCMB is positioned as a "national project to diversify the oil-dependent economy through cocoa." For success,

1. transparent fund management and KPI disclosure

2. farmer-led cooperative governance

3. integration with sustainability certification

4. a revenue model that encourages youth participation
   are indispensable. Although there are many external risks such as inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, if production areas, the government, and international companies work together, Nigerian cocoa has the potential to once again dominate the global market as the "second black gold." The establishment of future legislation and the first-year operations are closely watched.

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