"Sky Black Friday" - International Airfare Triggered by New Middle East Conflict

1 At 3:17 AM, the Flash in Natanz

In the early hours of June 13, a joint formation of the Israeli Air Force and the U.S. military conducted an airstrike involving 200 aircraft on nuclear-related facilities, including Iran's Natanz. Immediately following the attack, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Israel successively closed their airspace. With Jordan also involved, the "artery" connecting east and west was simultaneously severed, causing the skies for passenger planes to black out overnight. Eurocontrol reported it as "the largest simultaneous airspace closure since 1950," and hub airports worldwide overflowed with passengers with "undetermined destinations."reuters.com

2 Disappearance of Aircraft from FlightRadar

Hours after the airstrike, the real-time map on FlightRadar24 showed the skies over Iran and Iraq completely blacked out, with a bizarre image of white dotted lines curving widely around the periphery. The number of overflights over Saudi Arabia doubled from the usual 700 flights per day to 1,400, and Afghanistan's airspace recorded an abnormal 500% increase. Kabul FIR even issued a NOTAM warning of "en-route holding due to congestion."flightradar24.com

3 Fuel Costs Soar, Fares Plummet

While the increased fuel costs from detours hit airlines hard, the fear of war cooled passenger demand, collapsing the pricing mechanism. International airfares fell into a "negative spiral" where demand evaporated and oversupply progressed simultaneously. According to aviation data company Cirium, the average CASK (Cost per Available Seat Kilometer) for long-haul routes between Europe and Asia increased by 17%, while RASK (Revenue per Available Seat Kilometer) decreased by 23%. The paradox of "the higher the fuel cost, the lower the fares" became a reality.economictimes.indiatimes.com

4 Air India’s Desperate Price-Cutting Strategy

Leading the "sky deflation" is Air India. Delhi-Paris is one-way ₹21,785, Delhi-New York is ₹28,678—less than half of competitors' prices. Even short-haul routes like Delhi-Dubai dropped to ₹9,800, and Delhi-Hong Kong fell from ₹46,000 to ₹14,000. The company describes this as a "demand stimulation sale," but in reality, reservations plummeted by 30-35% following the June 12 Ahmedabad crash. They were forced to cut international wide-body flights by 15% and narrow-body flights by 5%, resorting to "special sales" to fill empty seats.ndtvprofit.comreuters.comm.economictimes.com

5 Social Media Uproar: #FareWar and #AirspaceChaos

The price disruption quickly spread to X (formerly Twitter). Self-deprecating jokes like "Airfare cheaper than fuel surcharge lol" and "Cheaper than a sleeper train to NY" filled timelines, and "#FareWar" and "#AirspaceChaos" surged to the top two trends in India. Actress Raveena Tandon, who posted a photo from a plane with the caption "A new start" after the accident, faced backlash with comments like "Nice publicity stunt" and "Do you understand the feelings of the bereaved?" and was forced to apologize the next day.navbharattimes.indiatimes.com

6 Another Spark: The Crash Incident

The company's price reduction is shadowed by safety concerns. On June 12, a Boeing 787-8 (Flight AI-171) stalled and crashed shortly after takeoff, resulting in 241 fatalities. The Indian DGCA immediately ordered additional inspections for all aircraft of the same model. Air India is facing a 24% increase in insurance premiums and a sharp rise in public relations costs, and is trying to prevent passenger loss through "pricing."reuters.com

7 The Cost of Detours: CASK Indicates "Deficit Operation"

Aviation economist Amar Mishra estimates, "The closure of the West Asia route results in an average detour of 40 minutes per flight, burning an additional 2 tons of fuel. If the current price reduction continues, Air India will see its operating cash flow turn negative in eight weeks." JetA1 fuel has surpassed $118 per barrel, and aviation insurance broker Marsh has predicted that war risk insurance premiums will "double within the week."economictimes.indiatimes.comreuters.com

8 The Dilemma of Western and Gulf Carriers

Air France KLM and British Airways have suspended flights to Dubai and Riyadh for 48 hours. Singapore Airlines has canceled its Dubai route, and flights via Hong Kong to Tel Aviv have been terminated in Hong Kong. Among Middle Eastern carriers, Emirates and Qatar Airways continue to operate via southern routes, but the travel time is extended by up to 2 hours, and operational costs increase by $38,000 one way. Even for Gulf "national airlines," these flights are undertaken with the expectation of losses.reuters.com

9 Passenger Psychology: Relief and Conflict

In the search logs of the travel portal MakeMyTrip, the keyword "safe airlines" for bookings from Delhi to Europe increased by 114% compared to the previous week. While more users are writing, "Even if it's a bit more expensive, I want a safe carrier," younger backpackers are deciding on the cheapest options, seeing "now as the chance." Among Japanese expatriates, a "forwarded email" claiming that "insurance companies have issued a 'ban on Air India'" has spread, causing anxiety despite its questionable credibility.

10 Invisible Costs: Environment and Humanity

The additional fuel burned due to detours results in an estimated increase of 29,000 tons of CO₂ emissions in one week. Under the EU-ETS (Emissions Trading System), the credit cost is equivalent to approximately €7.2 million. Additionally, all medical charter flights passing over Iran and Iraq have been canceled, and Médecins Sans Frontières has issued a statement about "serious delays in the transfer of Syrian refugees."

11 Experts Read the "Shelf Life of Price Reductions"

Aviation analyst Kapil Kaul points out, "With the triple burden of fuel, insurance, and maintenance costs, the current price level can last at most 3 to 4 weeks. By mid-July, there will be a rebound, balancing at 1.5 to 1.8 times the current fares." The International Air Transport Association (IATA) also predicts that "with the sharp rise in war risk insurance premiums, the average fare from Asia to Europe will rebound by 30% by August." The ironic conclusion is that "now is precisely the time to buy."

12 Future Scenarios: Three Turning Points

1. Early Ceasefire & Airspace Reopening
   If a diplomatic truce is established within 21 days, the fare market will rapidly recover—a "V-shaped rebound" course.

2. Prolonged Stalemate
   Airspace closures and detours become the norm, directly impacting high fuel costs. Airline tickets will fluctuate wildly until October, leading to a "battle of endurance" among carriers.

3. Regional Expansion
   If the closure of the Strait of Hormuz becomes a reality, soaring fuel prices and cargo space shortages will lead to the worst-case loop of "fare inflation in both air and sea."

Conclusion—Navigating Through "Turbulence"

For travelers, it's an unprecedented price drop—but hidden costs of fuel, safety, and environment lurk beneath. Experts commonly advise, "If buying now, choose tickets with 'flexible conditions'" and "Check the situation daily with flight radar." For airlines, the obvious lesson is that rebuilding "safety and trust" rather than engaging in short-term price wars will yield long-term benefits.

References
NDTV Profit "Middle East Chaos Sends International Airfares Into Tailspin; Air India Leads The Plunge"ndtvprofit.com
Reuters "Air India cuts less than 5% of narrowbody jet routes…"reuters.com
Economic Times "Turbulence in West Asia hits global air travel"economictimes.indiatimes.com
Reuters "Airlines weigh Middle East cancellations after US strikes…"reuters.com
Flightradar24 Blog "Saudi overflights double with Iran-Iraq airspace closure"flightradar24.com
Economic Times "Air India bookings down 20%; fares dip up to 15%…"m.economictimes.com
Navbharat Times "Raveena Tandon…SNS Criticism"navbharattimes.indiatimes.com