The Stockpiled Rice Boom Has Arrived! A Thorough Explanation of the Surge in Rice Prices and the Emergency Measures by Companies

2025年06月07日 14:21

1. Introduction: Why "Stockpiled Rice" is a Hot Topic Now

The rise in rice prices that began in the summer of 2024 accelerated further in 2025. The scene of rice disappearing from the shelves of retail stores immediately after the government made its first large-scale release of stockpiled rice in March is still fresh in memory. In some supermarkets in the metropolitan area, more than 100 people lined up before opening, and even with a purchase limit of one 5kg bag per person, cases of selling out by noon were frequent. The background includes—

Price Surge: The average retail price of Koshihikari rose from 3,600 yen to 5,200 yen per 5kg (a 44% increase year-on-year)
Geopolitical Risks: Prolonged situation in Ukraine and increased transportation costs due to rising maritime insurance premiums
Abnormal Weather: Record heat in 2024 led to a national crop index of "97" (slightly poor)
Yen Depreciation: Rise in prices of imported wheat and feed led to a "return to rice as the staple food"

These complex factors stimulated consumer sentiment, quickly spreading the mindset of "buying while you can."

2. Overview of the "Reiwa Rice Panic"

Unlike the "Heisei Rice Panic" of 1993, the government decided to release stockpiled rice early, but the demand exceeded expectations. The media dubbed this the "Reiwa Rice Panic" and featured it in special reports. The government hinted at an additional release of up to 300,000 tons and considered utilizing a duty-free import quota of 100,000 tons. A Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries official remarked, "The stockpile is sufficient, but the psychological hoarding was unexpected."

3. What is Stockpiled Rice? History and Mechanism

The stockpiled rice system was fully introduced with the amendment of the Food Law in 1995. The government constantly holds 8% of the average annual demand (about 800,000 tons) and rotates it every five years in principle. The rice was mainly released for school lunches and processing, but for the first time, "direct sales to retail stores" were conducted, shortening the distribution route. The average wholesale price of the initial release was set at around 2,000 yen per 5kg, nearly half of the market price.

4. Summary of "Procurement Volume" and "Initiatives" by Each Company

Category	Company/Organization	Procurement Volume/Measures	Comments
Supermarkets	AEON	Three times the usual monthly amount (including 2,000t of stockpiled rice per month)	"Private brand rice also doubled"
Convenience Stores	7-Eleven	Newly introduced 3-cup pack of stockpiled rice	"Permanent disaster prevention corner"
Online Shopping	Amazon Japan	"Limit of 2 bags per person"	"Inventory replenishment frequency increased by 150%"
Dining Out	Matsuya Foods	Blend ratio of stockpiled rice increased to 15%	"Stable supply to curb price increases"
Agricultural Cooperatives	JA Zen-Noh	Farmer-supporting crowdfunding	"Cash conversion through pre-harvest contracts"

Such "bulk buying" exceeds the original purpose of stockpiling, and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is urging people to "refrain from purchasing more than necessary."

5. Government and Ministry of Agriculture's Measures and Challenges

Release of 600,000 tons of reserve rice(First batch of 200,000 tons sold out)
Expansion of emergency import quota: Existing quota 100,000 → up to 300,000 tons
Review of conversion incentives: Consideration of easing acreage reduction policy
Support for logistics efficiency: Subsidies for port-inland cold chain

However, experts analyze that "as long as demand remains strong, the effect of the release is temporary." Masafumi Yamaguchi of Nomura Securities points out, "We assumed that rice demand had decreased due to dietary diversification, but in reality, it remains solid."

6. Will rice prices fall? Experts' Outlook

Short-term (until autumn): Stock release may ease prices to the low 4,000 yen range per 5kg
Mid-term (after new rice shipment): Risk of price rise depending on crop conditions, especially in Kyushu and Tohoku
Long-term (2026 and beyond): If easing of acreage reduction and investment in smart agriculture succeed, stabilization is expected

The think tank "Nihon Soken" warns, "Global rice supply and demand are tight, and reliance on imports is dangerous." On the other hand, the release of reserve rice is seen as indicating a "price ceiling," which may suppress speculative price increases.

7. Cracks in the Supply Chain and Distribution

The heatwave of 2024 reduced production by 4.5%, but there was still over 1.5 million tons in stock.Despite this, the reason why store shelves became empty is

logistics congestion from JA warehouses to wholesalers
stagnation in cargo handling due to a shortage of warehouse workers
excessive "preemptive ordering" by retailers

It is pointed out that unless this "twist in distribution" is resolved, the end prices will remain unstable even if stockpiled rice is released repeatedly.

8. Japan's "Stockpiling Culture" Compared to the World

United States: Stockpiling canned and freeze-dried foods is common. Staple foods are diverse, and rice dependency is low
EU: Grain stockpiling is managed in a decentralized manner under the EU Common Agricultural Policy, with redistribution within the region during times of demand pressure
Southeast Asia: The Philippines and Indonesia are strengthening national stockpiles, but they remain unstable due to climate change

Japan has a high dependency on rice as a staple food, and the cultural background of "stockpiling = rice" appears "unique" from overseas perspectives. The point that it has become a trend in conjunction with disaster awareness (earthquakes, typhoons) is noteworthy.

9. Voices from SNS: What is the Sentiment on the Ground?

"It's more of a panic than a boom. Even new rice is being forgotten."(X user @cure_the_blues

"The structure where farmers are not rewarded, sell at a fair price!"(@cure_the_blues)

"Unfair that only those who can line up on weekday mornings can buy."(@tokumusocho)

"Stockpiled rice is temporary. We avoid it with soba."(@onsa2235)

"It's not a boom... the media is overhyping."(@icchii_first)

While supporters argue that "it's natural for a disaster-prone country" and support the stockpiling culture, critics claim that "hoarding leads to price inflation."

10. Summary and Outlook

The stockpiling rice boom has transcended mere temporary "hoarding" to become a social phenomenon reflecting Japan's values surrounding food and disaster prevention. While the government's emergency measures are showing some effectiveness,

Visualizing Supply and Demand
Resolving Logistics Bottlenecks
Supporting Farmers and Price Stabilization

must be pursued simultaneously; otherwise, the fluctuations in rice prices are likely to continue. For overseas readers, this serves as a good opportunity to understand the "crisis management awareness of the Japanese concerning staple foods." The harvest in the fall of 2025 and new policies will be key in determining the outcome of the "boom."

References

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