The Fate of the Nuclear Agreement: The Background of Iran's Demand for Sanctions Relief and the International Community's Response

On October 18, 2025 (Japan time), the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that "the 10-year term under UN Security Council Resolution 2231 has expired, and all restrictions and mechanisms related to the nuclear program have ended today." The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), agreed upon 10 years ago, was a framework to ease sanctions in exchange for limiting Iran's nuclear program. However, Iran has officially declared the "end of restrictions upon expiration." Brazil's InfoMoney reported Tehran's statement along with criticism of the E3 (UK, France, Germany) for "non-compliance" and demands to remove the nuclear issue from the Security Council's agenda. InfoMoney

Resolution 2231 was originally designed to expire on "Termination Day" (October 18, 2025), 10 years after "Adoption Day" (October 18, 2015), closing the Security Council's "nuclear" case on Iran. The Arms Control Association's fact sheet, which organizes primary sources in the field of disarmament and non-proliferation, also confirms that the "snapback" procedure was set to expire simultaneously with the end of 2231. Arms Control Association

However, the reality of 2025 has not turned out to be a year of peaceful conclusion as per the text. On August 28, the E3 notified the initiation of the "snapback" to reinstate UN sanctions, citing Iran's long-term deviation from its obligations. The activation of this procedure is confirmed in the French Foreign Ministry's publication and UN documents. diplomatie.gouv.fr

The EU Council also decided on September 29 to reactivate proliferation-related measures against Iran, clarifying the European stance that they do not accept Iran's interpretation of "10-year expiration = automatic release." European Council

Reports on Termination Day also highlighted the current situation where Iran declared the end of restrictions while Western and regional countries are successively rebuilding the sanctions framework. Al Jazeera

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1. What has "ended" and what "continues"?

• Time-limited provisions of UN Resolution 2231
  Textually, 2231 was designed to end on October 18, 2025, and Iran's nuclear case was supposed to be removed from the Security Council. Arms Control Association

• Preemptive activation of "snapback"
  However, before this "end," the E3 notified the snapback, effectively steering towards the reinstatement of UN-equivalent sanctions. Iran claims it is "invalid," but the European side counters with the view that they "revived it before expiration." diplomatie.gouv.fr

• Secondary alignment of countries
  For example, New Zealand announced its intention to reactivate sanctions in line with October 18. Movements aligning with the "revival" side are spreading even outside the region. Reuters

Thus, a situation of "from Iran's perspective, the constraints are lifted" and "from Europe and others' perspective, sanctions are revived" has emerged. Iran's declaration is heavily laden with the meaning of a political and legal appeal, aiming to demonstrate its "graduation" from international frameworks both domestically and internationally. Meanwhile, the E3, EU, and some allied countries prioritize risk management for security, intending to tighten the net of independent and coordinated sanctions.

2. Reactions on social media: Divided interpretations and intersecting risk perceptions

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On X (formerly Twitter) and Reddit, the Iranian logic of

"restrictions have ended because it has legally expired"

sharply opposed the E3 logic of "since deviations from the agreement continued, it is natural to reinstate sanctions." Below are representative points (summary).

• Posts from Iranian government and embassies (positive interpretation)

  Iran's Foreign Ministry English account and overseas embassies claimed, "2231 permanently expired on October 18. The 'extension' or 'revival' of expired measures is invalid," also appealing for removal from the Security Council agenda.
  X (formerly Twitter)

• Experts and scholars' observations (institutional arrangement)

  Researchers and think tank members posted structural analyses like "The arrival of Termination Day ends the IAEA Director General's JCPOA reporting obligation," and "The E3's snapback notification created politically and legally complex conflicts."
  X (formerly Twitter)

• Posts from E3 and allied countries (emphasis on caution and deterrence)

  The German Foreign Ministry and Canadian Foreign Ministry justified the snapback citing Iran's nuclear escalation, explaining it as "the last resort after exhausting diplomatic efforts." Posts sharing images of the E3 notification documents also spread.
  X (formerly Twitter)

• Community opinions (divided market perspectives)

  In Reddit's geopolitical community, criticism that "the 2018 U.S. withdrawal broke trust and nipped agreement reconstruction in the bud" coexists with rebuttals that "the agreement had too many loopholes." Heated debates ensued over whether the next agreement should premise the complete halt of enrichment.
  Reddit

A bird's-eye view of social media reveals a structure of

reinterpretation of legal texts

intersecting with security risk assessments, highlighting the contrast between **"graduation according to the rules" vs. "real deterrence."** Iran's communication campaign emphasizes being a "complier with international law," while the E3 side forefronts "preservation of the non-proliferation regime." Both sides have certain grounds, but the current situation is that the lack of trust makes the argument zero-sum.

3. Background: The "long 2018" of agreement collapse and the geopolitics of 2025

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Since the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, Iran has gradually exceeded the constraints of the agreement. The tug-of-war over IAEA inspection cooperation and the increase in uranium enrichment levels and stockpiles amplified European concerns. By 2025, regional military tensions also escalated, and Western public opinion environments tended to shift towards "immediate deterrence" rather than "prolonging the agreement." As a result, the

end point of the text

and the reality of politics drew completely opposite trajectories. Reuters

4. Implications for the economy and market: The "steps" of sanction risks remain for the time being

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As long as the EU and E3 frameworks, along with individual countries' re-sanctions, accumulate, the ripple risks of energy exports, financial transactions, and secondary sanctions remain in a

step-like

manner. The naive expectation that norms would relax on Termination Day is being offset by the **"implementation aspect"** of policy. New Zealand's re-sanction announcement is a symbolic example of this. Reuters

5. Future scenarios: Three "intersections"

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1. Reconstruction of a limited agreement (practical step-by-step)

   A redesign of gradual mutual measures
   similar to the "revival delay" offer (IAEA access recovery, stockpile issue handling, etc.) presented by the E3 in September. Although the binding force is small, accident avoidance and market reassurance can be achieved. Reuters

2. Direct confrontation over legal interpretation (to the Security Council/international judicial arena)

   Iran continues to assert "2231 has expired, snapback is invalid," while Europe confronts with "the procedure is valid." Prolonged courtroom diplomacy
   dissolves time while preserving uncertainty.

3. "Expanded agreement" bundled with regional security

   Discussions reignite over a broader package
   including missiles, drones, and activities of regional proxy forces. Although difficult, it is also the only way to remove zero-sum—this is a long tunnel.
   
   
   

6. Interview notes: Words from the field

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"
• Iran's claim is justified by the dual aspects of 'program peacefulness' and 'legal expiration.'

  However, what the international community seeks is a third axis of 'verifiability'" (nuclear non-proliferation researcher) X (formerly Twitter)

"
• Snapback is after exhausting all diplomatic means.

  It is a measure against Iran's nuclear escalation" (European diplomatic source) X (formerly Twitter)

"
• Even if 2231 expires, autonomous sanctions of each country remain.

  The market looks at 'policy thickness' rather than 'normative void'" (European policy watcher) European Council
  
  

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7. Conclusion: Has the "agreement" ended, or the "time-limited provisions"?

Iran announced that the