Gold Price: Challenging a Key Resistance Line - Can It Break Through the Two-Tiered Wall of "$3,377/$3,438"?

1. What is Happening Now (As of August 6)

As of August 6, spot gold is slightly down in the $3,370 range. The backdrop includes a rebound in the US dollar, a slight recovery in US interest rates, and speculation surrounding the US administration's trade stance and Federal Reserve personnel, which have temporarily capped the upside. Nevertheless, the upward trend since the beginning of the year remains intact, and investors are eyeing the timing for a retest of the $3,400 range.Reuters+1

2. Technical Core: $3,377 and "Central Barrier" $3,438

BNP Paribas analyzes that after rebounding from $3,438 on July 23, the decline was reversed around the support near $3,254. Currently, the two-tier resistance of $3,377 (recent recovery high and trendline return confirmation point) and $3,438 ("central barrier") is the main focus. Breaking through $3,438 would bring into view the target range of the all-time high $3,499 and $3,545, while the downside is successively buffered by $3,334→$3,306→$3,254.aktiencheck.de

3. All-Time Highs and Current Position: Price in the "Settling in the $3,000 Range" Phase

In 2025, amidst trade frictions, concerns about economic slowdown, and rising policy uncertainty, gold experienced multiple record highs within the year. The consensus is gradually forming around the settling in the $3,000 range. Recent market forecasts also suggest an average of over $3,200 for 2025 and around $3,400 for 2026.Reuters+1

4. Fundamentals: What Drives Gold Up and What Weighs It Down

• US Interest Rates & Dollar: The anticipation of a rate cut in September is a tailwind for gold, but short-term dollar rebounds and slight interest rate increases are capping the upside. Position adjustments before events make price movements volatile.Reuters
  
  

• Policy & Geopolitics: Headlines on trade policy and political situations stimulate demand for safe assets. The market's "news sensitivity" remains high.Reuters
  
  

• Supply & Demand (Central Banks & ETFs): In Q2 2025, net buying by central banks continued, and there was an inflow into gold ETFs. This forms a foundation for gold's "resilience."World Gold Council+1
  
  

• Upward Shift in Forecast Range: Major short-term outlooks have been raised to $3,300–$3,600. As long as momentum is alive, there will be more phases where "dips are shallow."Investing.com

5. Scenario Tracker (Action Criteria by Price Range)

A. Bullish Scenario (Continuation of Breakout)

• Exceed $3,377 on a "closing basis" → Confirm settling in the $3,400 range

• Then clearly break through $3,438 → Gradually raise the target to $3,499 → $3,545

• Potential "dip candidates" in case of slowdown are $3,334 → $3,306 → $3,254
  (Levels based on BNP Paribas dailyEDEL)aktiencheck.de

B. Range-Bound Scenario (Return Within Range)

• Capped at $3,377, forming a range of $3,334–$3,377

• In a phase where US interest rates and the dollar rebound further, there is a high probability of testing the lower end of the range.Reuters

C. Adjustment Scenario (Chain of Support Breaks)

• Breaking $3,306 → $3,254 shifts from "high-range consolidation" to "adjustment trend"

• Depending on macro factors (resurgence of inflation, sharp rise in the dollar), downward pressure may accelerate.aktiencheck.de

6. How to Use the Event Calendar

• US Employment Statistics, CPI, PCE: Key data that incorporates the certainty and timing of rate cuts. The more the results deviate from pre-event forecasts, the more gold fluctuates.Reuters

• Federal Reserve Personnel & Key Statements: Signals of policy stance influence short-term trends. Pay attention to personnel speculation headlines.Reuters

• Trade & Tariff Headlines: Tariff suggestions or renewed conflicts boost demand for safe assets.Reuters

7. Practical Guide for Japanese Individual Investors

1. Choice of Means: Use domestic ETFs, investment trusts, physical bullion, savings, futures/CFDs, etc., depending on the purpose (long-term holding or short-term trading).
   
   

2. Fund Allocation: Gold plays a significant role as "insurance" in assets. A two-layer structure of core (physical/ETF) + satellite (futures/options) makes it easier to withstand volatility.
   
   

3. Entry Design:

   • Following Breakouts: Split according to the breakout and settling above $3,377, followed by expansion beyond $3,438.

   • Buying Dips: Layer stop orders and limit orders in the order of $3,334→$3,306→$3,254.aktiencheck.de
     
     

4. Stop Loss & Hedge: Reduce positions before events or hedge downside risks with options.
   
   

5. Currency Risk: Yen-denominated gold is strongly influenced by the USD/JPY rate. In cases of a stronger dollar and weaker yen, yen-denominated gold may hold even if dollar-denominated gold falls.
   
   

6. Information Sources: Read price headlines (breaking news), supply and demand (WGC), and technical (analyst reports) "vertically" for cross-referencing.World Gold Council

8. Reading "Resilience" from Supply and Demand

Global central banks continued net buying in Q2. Recent central bank surveys show a strong intention to increase gold reserves over the next year. Combined with ETF inflows, the fundamental strength for forming dips is evaluated as higher than usual.World Gold Council+1

9. Forecast Range and Consensus

Incorporating market uncertainties, the range of $3,300–$3,600 is the current consensus. Short-term upward risks include accelerated rate cuts, intensified trade frictions, and geopolitical shocks. Downward risks are continued autonomous rebound of the dollar and unexpected rises in nominal and real interest rates.Investing.com

10. Summary: Checklist

• First, confirm the "closing breakout" of $3,377.

• Then, the breakthrough of the $3,438 central barrier is the "real deal."

• Beyond that, target in the order of $3,499→$3,545.

• Dips are guided by $3,334→$3,306→$3,254.

• Avoid excessive headwinds by "calendar management" of indicators, policies, and headlines
  (Levels based on BNP Paribas analysis)##HTML