In 2030, All Official Vehicles to Be EVs—The Impact of the EU's "Corporate Fleet Revolution"

Introduction

In July 2025, Germany's leading weekly magazine 'SPIEGEL' reported that the European Commission is preparing a proposal to limit newly introduced corporate fleet vehicles and rental cars within the EU to zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) from 2030 onwards. The ultimate goal of banning the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is set for 2035, but according to sources from the German Ministry of Transport, statistics showing that corporate and business use accounts for 60% of new car registrations in Europe have served as the rationale for this accelerated measure. This groundbreaking proposal aims to simultaneously shift large corporate orders to EVs, thereby reducing CO₂ emissions and rapidly expanding battery production capacity.

At the same time, this proposal also harbors concerns that it may accelerate the manifestation of "bottlenecks" in the European transport sector's decarbonization strategy "Fit for 55"—namely, the lack of charging infrastructure, procurement of battery materials, and employment transitions. This article will comprehensively analyze policy documents, stakeholder interviews, and social media data to examine the economic, social, and technological impacts from multiple perspectives.

1. Overview of the Proposal and Legal Basis

• Amended Subject: EU Regulation 2019/631 (CO₂ Emission Standards for Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles)

• Key Provisions: ① Corporate fleet and rental cars registered for the first time from January 1, 2030, must be ZEVs. ② Member states must require their domestic companies to submit fleet conversion plans and impose fines if not achieved. ③ E-fuel vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are exceptionally recognized as "equivalent to ZEVs."

• Legislative Process: Following deliberations in the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers in the spring of 2026, adoption is aimed for 2027, with enforcement by 2030.

The legal basis is the European Climate Law, enacted in 2021, which requires alignment with the goal of reducing emissions from the transport sector by 90% compared to 1990 levels by 2030.

2. Reactions of Key Stakeholders

Automobile Manufacturers

• Volkswagen (VW): The Group's Chief Strategy Officer commented, "Visualizing demand is the premise for investment decisions. The accelerated proposal involves short-term pain but will be a tailwind for improving battery cell self-sufficiency in the mid to long term."

• BMW: Reaffirmed its goal to increase the ratio of high-performance EVs to 40% of total sales by 2029 and welcomed the proposal as contributing to price stabilization in the premium EV market.

• Stellantis: Announced the cessation of the ICE engine line at the Ludwigsburg plant by 2027 and its conversion into a modular battery assembly plant.

Rental Car and Car Leasing Industry

• Sixt: Expressed concern that "operations cannot continue under current conditions," citing short average tourist stays in German tourist areas and insufficient highway charging networks.

• Hertz Europe: On the other hand, placed additional orders for 150,000 EVs, mainly from Tesla and BYD, stating, "Early transition enhances competitiveness in terms of asset turnover and fuel costs."

Corporate Fleet Operators

• Deutsche Post DHL: Reported that 70% of delivery vans are already electrified, noting "major cities have short travel distances, but rural hubs face challenges with reduced range in winter."

• IKEA: Plans to install 6,000 charging stations for employees by 2028, in conjunction with the full electrification of company vehicles.

Environmental Groups and Think Tanks

• Transport & Environment (T&E): Evaluated corporate fleets as "low-hanging fruit" with long travel distances and a significant ripple effect on the used car market.

• ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers Association): Pointed out that advancing the law without plans for infrastructure and rare metal procurement poses a "policy risk."
  
  
  

3. Public Opinion Deciphered Through Social Media

From July 20 to 24, 2025, 120,000 posts containing hashtags like "#FleetEV" and "#VerbrennerVerbot" were collected on X (formerly Twitter) and Threads. Approximately 46% were in favor, positively evaluating "reduced EV maintenance costs" and "clean city tourism." About 41% were opposed, arguing "charging congestion" and "winter driving range." The remaining 13% were neutral or shared information.

"EU 2030 ban on ICE fleets? Battery tech is ready, politicians aren’t." — @GreenEngineer

"Taking long trips in a rental car with a 30-minute charge each time is hell." — @travel_jp

By language, 35% of the posts were in German, 28% in English, 17% in French, and 3% in Japanese. Geographically, there were many posts from urban areas in Germany, France, and Italy, while rural areas and tourist spots had a more pessimistic tone.

4. Infrastructure Development and Economic Impact

As of the end of 2024, there are approximately 500,000 public rapid chargers within the EU. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) estimates that at least 1.5 million, ideally 2 million, rapid chargers will be needed by 2030. There is a disparity among member states, with Germany, France, and the Netherlands accounting for 60% of the total, while the Baltic and Eastern European countries remain "charging deserts."

Economically, while the average vehicle price of EVs is 25-30% higher than ICEs, data indicates that the total cost of ownership (TCO) for high-mileage fleets will reverse within five years. The European Investment Bank (EIB) estimates that expanding charging infrastructure will create 360,000 new jobs, while warning that 180,000 jobs could be lost in the ICE-related parts industry.

5. Impact on Technology and Supply Chains

Northvolt, a major battery manufacturer in Sweden, plans to construct an additional production line with an annual capacity of 60 GWh in anticipation of the rapid expansion of corporate fleet demand. They have announced plans to diversify the procurement of lithium and nickel from Latin America and Australia and establish a circular supply chain.

Meanwhile, there are concerns about "over-dependence" on the European factory expansions of China's CATL and BYD. The European Commission plans to amend the "Strategic Raw Materials Act" by 2025, aiming to increase the domestic processing ratio of lithium to 40% by 2030.

6. Implications for Japanese Companies and Investors

Japanese automakers, with a high sales ratio of hybrid vehicles in Europe, are troubled by their treatment. Toyota plans to launch EVs with solid-state batteries in 2027 and is exploring large lease contracts for corporate fleets. Nissan plans to expand sales of the Leaf successor EV from its Sunderland plant in the UK to European companies.

Among trading companies, Mitsubishi Corporation has invested in the Dutch fast-charging network Fastned. ENEOS has partnered with Germany's E.ON to develop solar-integrated charging stations for commercial facilities. For investors, EV leasing businesses and real estate infrastructure funds for charging networks are likely to emerge as new investment themes.

7. Future Schedule and Issue Summary

• October 2025: Start of European Commission public consultation (8 weeks)

• Spring 2026: Deliberation and adoption of amendments by the European Parliament's ENVI Committee

• Fall 2026: Trialogue negotiations (Parliament, Council, Commission)

• Early 2027: Formal adoption and start of transposition by member states

• January 2030: Mandatory ZEV registration for new corporate fleets and rental cars

Key issues include ① concretizing obligations for charging infrastructure development, ② support frameworks for SMEs and tourist areas, ③ scope of e-fuel application, ④ transitional measures for developing member states, and ⑤ monitoring and penalty mechanisms.

8. Conclusion

The accelerated proposal focusing on corporate fleets and rental cars is an attempt to rapidly expand the entire EV ecosystem by directly manipulating the market's massive "demand lever." However, without accompanying plans for rapid charging networks and rare metal procurement, the "last mile problem" could worsen, potentially causing reverse effects on local economies and the tourism industry.

Corporations, municipalities, and EU institutions need to accelerate investments in infrastructure, human resources, and technology to ensure a "Just Transition." Although 2030 is still five years away, it is no exaggeration to say that the legal deadline is tomorrow. Whether regulations and the market can "run" at the same speed will likely influence the competitiveness of the mobility industry not only in Europe but worldwide.