NVIDIA H200 Export to China Approved, 25% "Security Tax" Shock: "Smuggling is Cracked Down, Export is Permitted" - The Apparent Contradiction of the Trump Administration's "Two-Faced Policy"

1) "Setting a 'Share' in AI Supremacy" ── Framework for Allowing H200 Exports

The core of this news is simple. President Trump has introduced a "conditional lifting" that allows NVIDIA's AI semiconductor "H200" to be exported to China, while the U.S. collects 25% of the sales. The target is "approved customers," with the Department of Commerce working out the details, and similar approaches are intended to be extended to AMD and Intel. Reuters

The important point here is the distinction that the H200 is not NVIDIA's cutting-edge (like Blackwell). Within the administration, there has been a tug-of-war between "wanting to avoid releasing the cutting-edge" and "not releasing anything is not wise." As a result, the decision was made to release a "second-tier" product, with a "tax (share)" attached, which is an unusual compromise both politically and commercially. Investopedia

2) Why Not "Total Ban" or "Total Lift"?

The debate within the U.S. is broadly divided into two camps.

• Security Priority Camp: Advanced AI chips could lead to military use or enhanced surveillance. Therefore, they should not be exported.

• Competitiveness Priority Camp: Closing off a huge market will accelerate China's domestic production, eroding U.S. industrial dominance.

Reuters reports that the current decision is a compromise to "avoid releasing the latest Blackwell to China while also avoiding a situation where releasing nothing benefits Chinese companies like Huawei." Reuters

The "difference" in performance is also being considered. Reuters highlights that Blackwell, used by U.S. AI companies, is about 1.5 times faster in training and 5 times faster in inference than the H200, with NVIDIA mentioning that "for some tasks, Blackwell is 10 times faster than H200." The essence of this policy is not to give China the "strongest card" but not to leave them with zero cards either. Reuters

3) Is 25% a "Tariff" or "Insurance"? ── The Political Nature of the System

The 25% collection is not just an arbitrary number. According to Reuters, White House officials treat it as a tax (import tax) at the stage when the chip is manufactured in Taiwan and enters the U.S., and further explain that the U.S. authorities will conduct a security review before exporting to China. Reuters

This design allows the administration to say domestically that "we are conducting national security checks," while telling the industry that "market access is preserved." Thus, the 25% functions politically more as a "security exemption (insurance)" than a "tariff."

4) U.S. Congress Reacts: Discomfort with "Allowing Exports on the Day of Smuggling Bust"

Meanwhile, backlash was immediate. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren called for congressional testimony from the NVIDIA CEO and the Secretary of Commerce, highlighting the point that the Department of Justice announced a bust of H200 smuggling at the same time, questioning whether pressure is being applied to prevent the truth from reaching the public. The White House emphasizes the distinction between "smuggling (unapproved) and exports (approved) after review." Reuters

Here lies the "twist" in the policy. Smuggling is cracked down on, but exports are allowed. The administration claims it is not a contradiction, but from the public's perspective, the simple question remains: "If it's dangerous, shouldn't it be stopped?"

5) China's Reaction: Not "Welcoming" but "Calm" ── Moving Toward "Selection"

The official diplomatic message is moderate. CBS reports that a representative of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs mentioned U.S.-China cooperation as mutually beneficial. CBS News

However, the practical temperature is different. Reuters, citing an FT report, states that Chinese authorities are expected to restrict access to the H200. Reuters

Domestic reports also indicate that China prioritizes nurturing its domestic semiconductor industry and plans to restrict H200 purchases, requiring buyers to explain "why domestic products are insufficient." Furthermore, Jensen Huang himself has expressed uncertainty about whether China will accept it. Mynavi News

In other words, even if the U.S. says "it's okay to sell," it doesn't necessarily mean China will "buy." This is the greatest uncertainty in the market, suggesting that the transaction might not move the numbers as much as the news suggests. Investopedia

6) And Japan ── The U.S. Appears to Prioritize "Practical Benefits with China," Shaking the Alliance Calculations

The inclusion of "Japan" in the NYT headline (URL) is symbolic. Japan, as a U.S. ally and a country strong in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, has been urged by the U.S. to strengthen export controls to China. Nippon.com, a current affairs site, reports that while considering the flow of the U.S. pressing Japan and the Netherlands to strengthen export controls, the current measure seems to prioritize considerations for China, sidelining the relationship with Japan. Nippon

The White House, aiming to dispel the view that Japan is being left behind, explains that "while engaging well with China, we can maintain a very strong alliance with Japan." Reuters

However, alliances revolve around "predictability," not emotions. If the U.S. appears to be adjusting its China policy through transactions (shares), Japan will have to recalculate "where will shake next." Especially in an era where advanced technology is at the core of national security, export control is "diplomacy itself."

7) Reactions on Social Media: Coexistence of Investor Joy and Security Concerns

Here, we organize notable reactions on social media by "temperature" (※ representative examples, not statistically indicative of overall public opinion).

(A) Stock & Investment Cluster: "It's Material Anyway" "But 25% is Harsh"

In the NVIDIA stock community on Reddit, there are high-energy posts viewing it as material, while there is also surprise at the 25% collection. For example, in the same thread, there are excited reactions (e.g., "LFG!!!!") alongside straightforward comments like **"25% cut? Jesus."** Reddit

In another thread, while there are opinions that "it's better than zero" given the long-thinned China market context, there are also posts with a cool view, calling it a **"25% Trump tax."** Reddit

(B) Tech & Industry Cluster: "Ultimately, Will China Buy?"

Investopedia also organizes that whether actual sales will materialize depends on the stance of the Chinese government, making it "opaque." On social media, there are many views that "even if permission is granted, if China prioritizes domestic industry and tightens, numbers won't grow" (reaction based on reading reports and analysis). Investopedia

(C) Security Cluster: "Price Tags Don't Eliminate Risks"

The issue raised by the U.S. Congress (such as Senator Warren's testimony request) is shared, and the point "does allowing exports align with the Department of Justice's smuggling bust?" spreads easily. This tends to take the form of institutional criticism as "risky rule design" rather than "anti-Trump/anti-China." Reuters

(D) Japanese Sphere: Spread of Breaking News and "Alliance Perspective" Unease

In the Japanese sphere, Nikkei-related accounts are circulating posts conveying "approval of H200 exports to China = regulatory relaxation," making it easy for alliance perspective discussions like "Japan was made to strengthen equipment regulations?" to arise. X (formerly Twitter)

Additionally, Yahoo Real-Time Search summaries also aggregate numerous related posts (※ note that the page itself is AI summarized). Yahoo!

8) Future Focus: Three "Uncertainties"

Finally, let's narrow down the points of interest going forward.

1. Clarification of Conditions: Approved customers, the strictness of reviews, and quantities remain vague, and implementation will determine everything. Reuters

2. China's Practical Response: If restrictions become full-scale, a scenario of "permission granted but not sold" is possible. Reuters

3. Coordination with Allies: While there are moves to advance the framework for competition with China (collaboration with allies and friendly countries), how the "deal" with China affects trust in alliances is questioned. Politico##HTML