1.404 billion and still declining: The 7.92 million births in China highlight the limits of a "high-cost society"

1.404 billion and still declining: The 7.92 million births in China highlight the limits of a "high-cost society"

There is a weight in this statistic that cannot be dismissed with a simple "decreased again." China's population has been declining for four consecutive years as of 2025. Moreover, the birth rate has fallen to its lowest level since statistics were first compiled in 1949. Despite the policy side stepping up with "all-out ideas to increase births," the bottoming out of births has not stopped—this encapsulates the difficulty of this issue.


1) The Numbers Indicate "Acceleration of Population Decline"

According to the announcement by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the total population at the end of 2025 was 1,404.89 million (about 1.404 billion), a decrease of 3.39 million from the previous year. Births were 7.92 million, and deaths were 11.31 million. The birth rate was 5.63‰, the death rate was **8.04‰, and the natural increase rate was -2.41‰**, a clear negative.


Aging is also progressing.There are 323.38 million people aged 60 and over (23.0% of the total population), and 223.65 million people aged 65 and over (15.9%). Not only is the population decreasing, but the ratio between the "supporting side (working generation)" and the "supported side (elderly)" is changing at a steeper angle.


2) Policy Moves to "Do Everything Possible": From Cash Benefits to Tax Systems

This news is attracting attention not only because of the demographic dynamics themselves but also because the policy has entered a considerably advanced stage.


A representative example is the childcare allowance of 3,600 yuan per year (tax-free) for each child under 3 years old. According to government announcements, nationwide applications will begin in 2026, and applications can also be made online (via Alipay/WeChat, etc.). It is also noted that 90 billion yuan was planned to be allocated from the central budget in 2025.


Meanwhile, foreign reports introduce symbolic examples of policies that not only "encourage" actions but also "guide" them, such as taxing contraceptives (condoms) and providing tax incentives for matchmaking and childcare facilities.


Furthermore, Reuters reports an estimate that the financial burden of these birth support measures could reach a total of 180 billion yuan, and also touches on the policy of full reimbursement of medical expenses, including IVF (in vitro fertilization).


3) Reasons Births Are Not Rebounding: The Biggest Enemy is "Structure"

The more policies increase, the more the question "Why aren't births increasing?" stands out. The points repeatedly raised in foreign reports can be roughly summarized into the following three.

① Cost of Living: Especially Housing and Education

The decision to have children is closer to taking on "fixed costs" for a dozen or more years rather than a one-time benefit. As long as housing, education, and childcare costs remain high, benefits are unlikely to become a "blueprint for peace of mind."

② Employment and Future Uncertainty: Economic Climate Directly Affects Decision-Making

Marriage and childbirth are premised on "future prospects." In situations where household anxiety about the future increases, childbirth is most likely to be postponed.

③ Gender and Workplace: Is Childbirth a "Career Penalty"?

AP introduces expert comments stating that structural issues such as housing, work, and education are significant, and unless these are addressed, a significant reversal in birth numbers is difficult. There is also a strong call for workplace environments where childcare does not result in disadvantages.


4) More Than Just "Population Decline," the Economic Side Effects

The fear of population decline is not just about the reduction in the number of workers. While the growth of consumption slows, expenditures on pensions, healthcare, and nursing care tend to increase. Reuters reports that aging complicates government goals such as expanding domestic consumption and controlling debt, and also touches on the gradual raising of the retirement age.


In short, as a country

  • The more invested in birth support, the heavier the financial burden becomes

  • If not invested, the pain of population decline will deepen and accelerate
    It is a situation akin to being caught between a rock and a hard place.


5) Reactions on Social Media: Cynicism, Sarcasm, Resignation, and Voices Saying "It Will Drop Further"

This topic has spread on the internet, and the reactions are quite raw.

Trending on Chinese-Language SNS: "It's Good That It's Decreasing" and "Sarcasm Hits Home"

An article introducing reactions on Chinese SNS in Japanese highlighted the topic of 7.92 million births,

  • with sarcasm such as "Wouldn't fewer people mean higher quality?" turning the **"quality of population" slogan on its head**.

  • Cold views like "It's still too many" and "There's room for it to drop further"

  • and dissatisfaction with working styles, stating it's difficult as long as long working hours (so-called "996") and overtime environments continue.
    are said to be lined up.

Spread on Overseas SNS: "It's Not an Issue That Can Be Moved by the Amount of Benefits Alone"

Starting from shared posts of overseas articles (such as official posts by news organizations), the focus on the "amount" of birth support and "workplace culture" is a standard flow. In the background is the recognition that even with significant expenditures on measures against declining birth rates in East Asian countries, the results were limited, and the atmosphere of "it won't easily return" is mixed from the start.


6) Future Focus: Can the Design of Living Be Changed Before "Increasing Births"?

Birth rates cannot be commanded. Therefore, the next focus shifts from "types of policies" to how much "living prerequisites" can be moved.

  • Whether childcare support is becoming "long-term reassurance" rather than "one-time assistance"

  • Whether the cost pressure of housing, education, and childcare can be reduced

  • Whether systems and practices can be created so that childbirth and childcare do not become career disadvantages


Statistics are cold. However, the voices on SNS are vivid because people intuitively know the "lives behind the numbers." Population decline is a "result of living conditions" before it is "news."


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