Amazon to Launch Nationwide Next-Day Delivery by Year-End: Challenging the "Japan Model" in Last-Mile Delivery

1. Background of the Announcement: EC Growth and Expectations for "Next Day"

Japan's BtoC-EC market is projected to expand to approximately 24 trillion yen by 2024, with more than half citing "next-day delivery" as a purchase requirement. While the same level of convenience is expected in rural areas, a shortage of delivery personnel, known as the delivery crisis, has become apparent.watch.impress.co.jp

2. Details of the Measures

• New Hub Network: Add 6 DS + 16 same-day hubs. Deliver orders placed by midnight to the next morning or afternoon.logi-today.com

• AI Inventory Optimization: Advance placement of small area inventory with demand forecasting and micro FC.

• Delivery Vehicles: Introduce 2,000 light EVs by 2026, electrifying 30% of total mileage.

3. Labor Environment and Union Perspective

The gig drivers' union, which describes the last mile as the most grueling, demands minimum compensation and insurance enrollment. Amazon has increased average compensation by 8% compared to 2024 and has started vehicle lease assistance.socialistproject.ca

4. Performance Data

In 2024, the number of same-day and next-day deliveries in Japan reached 780 million, a 15% increase year-on-year. The order value for fast delivery is 1.3 times that of regular delivery, with a return rate 0.2 points lower.linkedin.com

5. Comparison with Overseas Expansion

6. Japan-Specific Challenges

• Redelivery Rate: 11% (U.S. 7%)

• Road Width in Densely Populated Residential Areas: Addressed by introducing light EVs with a width of 1.48 m or less

• Aging Population: Promote locker pickup and voice-operated apps

7. Impact on Consumers and Regional Economy

The "shopping-around cost" in rural areas is expected to be reduced by an average of 18%, with an anticipated increase in market share in the pharmaceutical and daily necessities sectors. In tourist areas, the demand for "local shipping" is increasing, and prefectural DS is creating new employment.

8. Competitors' Movements

Rakuten is ending "Asuraku" in 2024 and is expanding next-day coverage with the new "Strongest Delivery," but its delivery network is limited to 34 prefectures. Yamato is strengthening EC-dedicated services and reducing costs through joint delivery.tsukimi.ne.jp

9. Environmental and Regulatory Outlook

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism plans to introduce delivery subsidies based on CO₂ emission coefficients starting in fiscal 2026. Amazon expects to reduce emissions by approximately 30 kt annually by achieving a 50% EV ratio.

10. Future Outlook

Beyond 2026, Amazon is considering drone delivery and joint collection at public transport hubs. The Japanese model is gaining attention in neighboring Asian countries as an example for high-density urban areas, and international competition in logistics efficiency is expected to accelerate further.

List of Reference Articles

• Impress Watch "Amazon to Expand Next-Day Delivery Nationwide by Year-End" July 1, 2025watch.impress.co.jp

• LOGISTICS TODAY "Amazon to Expand Next-Day Delivery for Night Orders Nationwide by Year-End" July 1, 2025logi-today.com

• Amazon.com "Expanding Same-Day and Next-Day delivery to 4,000 rural U.S. communities" June 2025aboutamazon.com

• About Amazon EU "Same-Day Delivery accelerates in Europe" May 2025aboutamazon.eu

• Amazon India Newsroom "India Post partnership enables nationwide 1-Day delivery" December 2024aboutamazon.in

• Delivery Workers' Union vs. Amazon Struggle Report December 2022socialistproject.ca

• Tsukimi Research Institute "Differences between Rakuten's 'Strongest Delivery' and the Former Asuraku" October 2024tsukimi.ne.jp