Politics of Fear vs. Embracing Uncertainty: In an Age of Anxiety, Reducing the "Right-Wing Vote" Surprisingly Comes Down to a "State of Mind"

1. The Mechanism by Which Uncertainty Generates "Right-Wing Votes"

Pandemics, wars, energy crises, climate change—over the past few years, the world has become accustomed to the unexpected. The feeling of not being able to predict tomorrow's work or life is a slow-burning stress for many. Numerous studies have pointed out that against this backdrop of anxiety, right-wing populist parties have been gaining support across Europe.MDPI

Strong emotions such as fear and anger pair well with simple narratives that clearly divide "enemies" and "allies," attracting people to messages like "It's the immigrants' fault" or "The elites are selling out the country." Reviews in political psychology report that while individuals with conservative views tend to be more sensitive to threats, the strength of this sensitivity is easily influenced by circumstances.MDPI

So, is it possible to weaken the influence of right-wing populism in an era filled with anxiety? The key to this, as found by the recent study from ETH Zurich, lies in "how we perceive uncertainty."ETH Zürich

2. What is the Experiment to Measure the "Uncertainty Mindset"?

The research team, including Ruri Takizawa, focused on the concept of the "uncertainty mindset." Simply put,

• whether uncertainty is viewed as athreat/dangeror

• whether uncertainty is viewed as achance/learning opportunityor

is the difference in this "mental lens."PubMed

An online experiment was conducted from December 2024 to March 2025, coinciding with the German federal election (February 2025), involving 745 citizens aged 18 to 80. The participants were composed to represent Germany as a whole in terms of education, gender, income, and region.ETH Zürich

• Experimental group (391 people): Viewed a slide presentation of about 7.5 minutes before the main survey

• Control group (354 people): Answered the same questionnaire without the presentation

The presentation included stories such as examples from scientific research where uncertainty led to new inventions or career turning points, and excerpts from Steve Jobs' famous Stanford commencement speech, conveying the message that "because the future is uncertain, new paths open up."ETH Zürich

Subsequently, participants answered questions on

• the extent to which they perceive uncertainty as an "opportunity"

• how positively they view societal diversity (immigrants and minorities)

• their level of commitment to social change

• which party they are most likely to vote for in the next election

and other such items.PubMed

3. What Changed with Just One "7-Minute Presentation"

The results were quite clear. In the experimental group that watched the presentation, the following tendencies were observed compared to the control group:Physiolog

1. An increase in scores for viewing uncertainty as a "chance"

2. A higher degree of feeling that societal diversity is "productive" and "beneficial"

3. A reduced tendency to avoid contact with different groups and a stronger desire for social change

4. A lower percentage of respondents indicating they would vote for right-wing populist parties (in Germany, AfD)

This effect was not merely a temporary mood change, as it was reported to have persisted in follow-up surveys conducted at least a month later.ETH Zürich

The research team points out that in the context of the German election, where right-wing populist parties gained 69 seats and became the second-largest party, "how we handle uncertainty" can be a crucial factor for the stability of democracy.research-collection.ethz.ch

Of course, this experiment alone cannot conclude that "showing a 7-minute slide will reduce right-wing votes." The sample consists of citizens who cooperate with online surveys, and self-reported voting behavior may not fully align with actual voting actions. Nonetheless, the significant impact lies in demonstrating that **"the meaning of uncertainty" is surprisingly malleable and can be changed with a short intervention**.PubMed

4. How Did Social Media React to This Research?

Once the paper was published online and covered as news by ETH Zurich and Phys.org, it spread across social media, particularly among the psychology community and research-related accounts.Physiolog

• The Society for Personality and Social Psychology (SPSP) account introduced the study's key point that
  "a mindset that views uncertainty as an opportunity leads to positive attitudes toward diversity and lower support for right-wing populism,"
  sharing the article link.X (formerly Twitter)

• On LinkedIn, experts in political communication and organizational development cited the study, commenting that "what is needed in times of change is not fear, but a perspective that sees the unknown as a learning opportunity," and shared it with their networks.LinkedIn

Meanwhile, in the context of political psychology and populism studies, there are also criticisms that "not only the right-wing but all political forces have used uncertainty to gather support," and ethical questions are raised about "how far psychological interventions to change voting preferences are permissible." These are points that have been repeatedly discussed in existing research dealing with the relationship between threat sensitivity, uncertainty, and political orientation.MDPI

Typical Reaction Images (Note: These are modeled trends, not actual posts)

Positive Side

"To counter politics that incite anxiety, an 'emotional immunity' is needed. This research could be a hint for education and media fields."

Cautious Side

"When I hear 'mindset intervention to reduce right-wing populism,' it could easily become propaganda if misused. Transparency about who uses it and for what purpose is crucial."

Field Perspective

"I don't think a 7-minute slide will change the world, but there seems to be value in sharing the perspective of 'trying because it's uncertain' with the younger generation."

What is important here is that the discussions on social media are moving towards a meta-question of **"how to embed ways of dealing with uncertainty in society," rather than a simple dichotomy of 'right-wing is bad/left-wing is right.'"

5. From "Fear" to "Resource": What Can Be Done with Uncertainty

The research by Takizawa and colleagues is purely a psychological experiment and does not advocate for any specific party or ideology. The researchers themselves speak in a cautious tone, saying, "We cannot change the world, but we can change how the world is perceived a little."ETH Zürich

Nevertheless, there are several insights that can be gleaned from these findings.

1. In the Educational Field

   • In career and civic education classes, address "stories born from unpredictable choices" rather than a "preordained life."

   • Storytelling that positively views failures and changes in direction not only encourages students but may also cultivate resilience to uncertainty.

2. Media and Information Literacy

   • Instead of only reporting crises and anxieties sensationally, also convey "positive changes occurring amidst instability."

   • A balance that allows readers to feel "the world is not just getting worse" might support a perspective that views uncertainty as an opportunity.

3. Workplace and Organizations

   • In the context of innovation and digital transformation, create a culture that positions challenges to the unknown not as "risks that lower evaluations if failed" but as a "learning process."

   • Such accumulated experiences could shape an "uncertainty mindset" not only in politics but also at the everyday life level.

It is important to note here thatviewing uncertainty positively does not necessarily mean