China's New Greenhouse Gas Reduction Pledge: Can It Become a True Leader in Climate Change Action?

Introduction—Exploring the True Meaning of "7-10%"

On September 24, 2025, China announced a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) at a United Nations high-level meeting, committing to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 7-10% from their peak by 2035. This is the first time China has explicitly stated an absolute reduction for its entire economy, and this "numerical commitment" by the world's largest emitter has created significant ripples in international politics. This article provides a multifaceted analysis of the declaration's content, feasibility, international evaluation, and raw reactions from social media. Nature

What's New—Shift to "Absolute Amount" and Supplementary Goals

This NDC focuses not merely on emission intensity or sector-specific management goals but on an absolute reduction from the peak. Additionally, it outlines a policy to increase the non-fossil energy ratio to over 30% by 2035, hinting at a design that mobilizes renewable energy, electrification, and carbon sinks (forests). While this is a step forward in terms of "clarifying direction," many point out that the reduction scale itself is modest. Nature

Scale of Achievements—Unprecedented Expansion of Renewable Energy

China's expansion of renewable energy is overwhelming as evidence of its implementation capability. The combined capacity of wind and solar power reached 1,200 GW by the end of 2024, achieving the 2030 target six years ahead of schedule. Furthermore, in the spring of 2025, wind and solar surpassed thermal power in installed capacity for the first time. However, fossil fuels still dominate in "share of power generation," with grid constraints and a lack of adjustment capacity being bottlenecks. Live Science

Why It's Still "Not Enough"—The Gap Between Science and Ambition

Many environmental groups and researchers consider **7-10%** insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C. 350.org described it as "insufficient but transformative," arguing that while feasibility is high, deeper cuts are desirable for scientific consistency. Analyses by independent media and legal policy experts also point out that the current target is "modest," and detailed design and formal submission are awaited. Live Science

International Political Coordinates—"Implementing China" and "Retreating USA"

The announcement has also sparked debates over leadership in climate diplomacy. While China overwhelms other countries with massive clean tech investments and manufacturing capabilities, the U.S. is seen as losing international influence due to recent policy setbacks. Even though China's numerical targets are modest, the leadership in "implementation and supply chains" is shifting towards China—a contrast highlighted at this meeting. The Washington Post

Reactions on the Internet—"Momentum Exists, Goals Lag Behind"

On social media, immediate reactions from various perspectives were gathered. Here are the key points (summarized and edited).

• Energy analyst Lauri Myllyvirta posted that the **"goals are restrictive against the current clean energy boom"**, implying that the actual trajectory could exceed the targets. X (formerly Twitter)

• Organizations like 350.org communicated via Facebook and statements that **"while not reaching the level the world needs, the shift to absolute reductions for the entire economy is progress."** This message is spreading in conjunction with street actions, calling for further increases. Facebook

• In the corporate and policy community (LinkedIn), attention focused on the policy implementation roadmap for packages like "over 30% non-fossil," "mainstreaming EVs," and "expanding forest absorption." LinkedIn

*The above are summaries of each post, with expressions from the original sources briefly quoted and restructured (see sources for details).

European Perspective—Conditions and Competition for "Partnership"

While Europe is closely tied to China in the clean tech supply chain, it has demanded higher standards for climate goals. This time too, European evaluations are predominantly "insufficient," and there is a reported stance of demanding further upward revisions as a condition for cooperation. This indicates the current state of EU-China relations, where technology, industrial policy, and climate diplomacy intertwine. Reuters

Implementation Risks—The Dilemma of Coal and Grids

The biggest challenges are the construction of new coal-fired power plants and the bottlenecks in the grid. To absorb renewable energy with large output fluctuations, strengthening transmission networks, storage, and demand response is essential. However, the current priority remains on fossil fuel operations, and output suppression (cuts) of renewable energy generation is occurring. Whether this can be reversed through policy and market design will determine the realization of "7-10%" and beyond. Reuters

Defining "Leadership"

So, is China a climate leader? The answer is divided.

• If focusing on the scale of implementation and supply chains: China is already at the core of the world in renewable energy equipment, EVs, and solar supply chains, making it a **"leader in implementation."** AP News

• If focusing on scientific consistency and ambition: 7-10% is insufficient, and it is hard to call it a **"leader in targets."** Higher reduction trajectories (e.g., 20-30% by 2035) are internationally demanded. 350

Ultimately, the evaluation of "leadership" changes depending on whether it is viewed through the lens of **"quantity (implementation)" or "quality (ambition)."** The upcoming formal submission of the NDC's details (sectoral caps, methane measures, power market reforms, grid investments, carbon market expansion) will bring that evaluation closer to reality. Just Security

Future Checkpoints

1. Formal submission to the UNFCCC and progress reports based on the transparency framework. Just Security

2. Restraining new coal installations and making existing thermal power more flexible (integrating storage, hydrogen co-firing, and heat pumps). Reuters

3. Large-scale investment in transmission grids and storage and redesigning market systems (priority dispatch for renewables, capacity market reform). Reuters

4. Strengthening management of **non-CO₂ gases (methane, HFCs, etc.)** and cost-effectiveness verification of industrial process electrification and CCUS. Nature

Conclusion—The Reality of "Achieving Above Expectations"

China has a track record of achieving goals through "overachievement." The current 7-10% is close to a "minimum line," and if the implementation capability led by supply chains continues, there is significant room to delve into deeper reductions. The key lies in the trinity of reforms in coal, grids, and markets. By 2035, whether China transitions from being merely a "champion of implementation" to a "standard-bearer of ambition"—that turning point is in these coming years. Carbon Brief