The Vending Machine Business at a Crossroads: Coca-Cola Enters the 200 Yen Era and the Future of Industry Reorganization

Table of Contents

1. Introduction: The "Psychological Barrier" of 200 Yen

2. Unstoppable Cost-Push: Breaking Down Inflation Factors

3. Coca-Cola's Price Increase Decision and "Coke ON" Strategy

4. Struggles of Suntory and DyDo: Reading Revenue Deterioration Through Numbers

5. Decline in Vending Machine Numbers and Surge in Deficit Machines

6. Cross-Industry Collaboration: Joint Delivery, App Integration, and Energy-Saving Machines

7. Consumer Perspective: How Price Differences Change Purchasing Behavior

8. Shift to ESG and Circular Models

9. Comparison with Overseas Markets and the "Gap" Felt by Foreign Tourists

10. Future Scenarios and Policy Issues

11. Conclusion: Can the Vending Machine Kingdom Survive?
    
    

1. Introduction: The "Psychological Barrier" of 200 Yen

In October 2025, Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan (hereafter, Coca BJH) will raise the price of its main 500 ml PET bottle drinks to 200 yen. The price, which was 140 yen just a few years ago, finally hits a major milestone, significantly shaking consumers' "ease of purchase." Toyo Keizai Online points out, "As we enter the 200 yen era, the ratio of deficit vending machines could rapidly expand to 20-30%."toyokeizai.net

2. Unstoppable Cost-Push: Breaking Down Inflation Factors

The prices of raw materials such as sugar and aluminum cans have soared, and the cost of PET resin for packaging materials continues to rise. High energy prices and a weak yen are driving up import costs, with electricity rates up about 25% compared to 2021. The "2024 logistics problem" is also raising transportation costs, and over 16,000 food and beverage items have already been announced for price increases.shinko-jp.com


Vending machines, which operate cooling heaters 24/7, are directly impacted by electricity costs, with less room for price pass-through compared to retail. This complex cost-push is the main reason for surpassing the 200 yen line.

3. Coca-Cola's Price Increase Decision and "Coke ON" Strategy

Since 2022, Coca BJH has repeatedly raised prices in increments of 10 to 20 yen. After the revision in fall 2025, the new standard for the red vending machines on street corners is expected to be 200 yen for 500 ml drinks and 160 yen for 350 ml cans. Toyo Keizai analyzes that "the gap with supermarkets has widened to nearly double for some products," and reports that the vending machine premium as a sales channel is nearing its limit.toyokeizai.net


Meanwhile, the smartphone app "Coke ON," with nearly 100 million downloads, offers stamps and coupons to ease the "psychological resistance" to price increases. However, relying too much on free tickets could squeeze profits, making balance adjustment difficult.

4. Struggles of Suntory and DyDo: Reading Revenue Deterioration Through Numbers

Suntory

Suntory Beverage Solution plans to roll out the cashless dedicated app "Jihanpi" nationwide from March 2025, aiming to introduce 150,000 units within the year. By linking with the app, they aim to reduce "lost sales opportunities" from cash transactions and curb customer attrition after price revisions.suntory.co.jp

DyDo

DyDo Group HD has a high dependency on vending machines, nearly 90%. In the first quarter of fiscal 2025 (February to April), despite sales of 52.9 billion yen, they recorded an operating loss of 1.4 billion yen, expanding the previous year's loss.s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com
In the financial market, stock prices plummeted by 5% in May, suggesting the "limits of the vending machine model."jp.reuters.com

5. Decline in Vending Machine Numbers and Surge in Deficit Machines

According to the Beverage Research Institute, the number of operational beverage vending machines is expected to decrease from 2.47 million in 2014 to 2.04 million in 2024, with about 10% being deficit machines. However, if customer numbers drop after price increases, 20-30% could become deficit machines.toyokeizai.net
In urban areas, rising installation fees and population decline in rural areas are turning vending machines from "cash cows" to "burdens."

6. Cross-Industry Collaboration: Joint Delivery, App Integration, and Energy-Saving Machines

Five soft drink companies (Coca BJH, Suntory, Ito En, Asahi, Kirin) announced that they have expanded joint delivery and round-trip transportation to improve logistics efficiency, reducing waiting times by 40%.prtimes.jp
Furthermore, discussions are underway to interconnect app platforms, optimize replenishment routes with AI, and jointly develop energy-saving machines. As the era of unprofitable solo operations arrives, competitors are seeking survival through "collaboration."

7. Consumer Perspective: How Price Differences Change Purchasing Behavior

In urban areas, convenience stores are brightly lit 24/7, with 500 ml drinks priced around 150 yen including tax. The difference with 200 yen vending machines is 50 yen. While foreign tourists find value in the "convenience," if the yen's depreciation weakens the sense of affordability, purchase frequency may decline.
A survey on social media shows many voices saying, "I stopped buying at 190 yen." The price revision could change the "pocket change" culture and accelerate the shift to cashless transactions.

8. Shift to ESG and Circular Models

Vending machines are also criticized as sources of CO₂ emissions. The industry is expanding the introduction of 100% PET recycling and machines using renewable energy, aiming for a 50% reduction in GHG by 2030. The plan to reduce the number of trucks through joint delivery can be seen as a strategy to balance CO₂ reduction and cost savings.prtimes.jp

9. Comparison with Overseas Markets and the "Gap" Felt by Foreign Tourists

In the U.S., a standard soda vending machine costs around $2 for 12 oz (355 ml). In the Eurozone, a 500 ml PET is generally 2.5 euros. When converted to yen, Japan's 200 yen can still be seen as "cheap." However, Japanese vending machines are characterized by outdoor, space-saving, high-density installations, with high replenishment frequency and maintenance costs. How to bear the cost of maintaining "vending machines as a culture" will be a future issue.

10. Future Scenarios and Policy Issues

1. Gradual Withdrawal Scenario: Decrease by about 50,000 units annually, focusing on deficit machines. Zero-installation areas may emerge in rural areas.
   
   

2. Digitalization Scenario: Face recognition and subscription integration increase average customer spending by 15 yen, with machine numbers remaining flat.
   
   

3. Public Infrastructure Scenario: "Smart Vending" with disaster response water supply and communication relay functions subsidized by municipalities.
   The government expands subsidies for energy-saving machines, and manufacturers are forced to invest in decarbonized models.
   
   
   
   

11. Conclusion: Can the Vending Machine Kingdom Survive?

The fall of 2025, when the psychological hurdle of 200 yen is surpassed, is not just a price increase but also a "social experiment." To what extent price pass-through is tolerated and from where it leads to demand destruction. Manufacturers are poised to navigate through collaboration and digitalization, but depending on the answers consumers provide, a future where "the red boxes on street corners" rapidly disappear is also possible.


When foreign readers visit Japan, the "200 yen" displayed on the red vending machines will reflect a "window" encapsulating complex issues such as inflation, demographics, environmental impact, and collaboration among Japanese companies.

List of Reference Articles

• Toyo Keizai Online "Coca-Cola Enters the 200 Yen Era, Price Increase This Fall Could Rapidly Increase Deficit Vending Machines to 20-30%"toyokeizai.net

• Toyo Keizai Online "Coca-Cola 200 Yen per Bottle! The Crossroads of the 'Vending Machine Business'"toyokeizai.net

• Beverage Industry 'Social Issue Response Study Group' Press Release (PR TIMES)prtimes.jp

• Suntory Beverage & Food International "Nationwide Launch of Vending Machine Cashless Service 'Jihanpi'"suntory.co.jp

• DyDo Group HD "Overview of Q1 FY2025 Financial Results" (PDF)s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com

• Sanshin Kogyo Column "Background of the 2025 Price Increase Rush"shinko-jp.com

• Beverage Research Institute Survey: Vending Machine Operational Numbers Trend (2014→2024)toyokeizai.net