"Japan-China Conflict to Last for a Year," Says Taiwanese Foreign Minister on "Takaichi's Remarks" and the Runaway Social Media Public Opinion

Will the Japan-China Conflict Over "Taiwan Emergency" Be a "Year-Long Standoff"?

Taiwan's Foreign Minister Predicts Nerve-Wracking East Asia and Social Media Public Opinion

1. The Reality of "It Will Take a Year" as Stated by Taiwan's Foreign Minister

"It may take at least a year for Japan-China tensions to settle down."

These were the words of Taiwan's Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu. In an interview, he warned that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks about Taiwan had severely provoked China, and the repercussions could be prolonged.InfoMoney

According to Foreign Minister Wu, escalating the conflict is "never a wise move" for Beijing either, but once emotional nationalism is ignited, it's difficult to apply diplomatic brakes. Therefore, the cold reality from Taiwan's perspective is that "there's no choice but to let time cool things down."

2. What Caused the "Year-Long Tension"?

The initial trigger was Prime Minister Takaichi's statement in the National Diet in November 2025. He explicitly stated that if China were to use warships to blockade or attack Taiwan militarily, it could constitute a "situation threatening Japan's existence," theoretically allowing for the exercise of collective self-defense involving the use of force by the Self-Defense Forces.Wikipedia

Successive administrations have maintained "strategic ambiguity" by deliberately not drawing lines on the "Taiwan emergency." The fact that the current prime minister spoke with a specific scenario led China to perceive it as crossing a "red line," resulting in fierce backlash.Reuters

The Chinese Consul General in Osaka named Prime Minister Takaichi on SNS "X," posting violent language such as "cut off the dirty head." Although the post was deleted following a protest from the Japanese government, the exchange between Japan and China quickly escalated into a diplomatic crisis.Reuters

3. China's "Limit Japan Order" and SNS Propaganda

It doesn't end with words. The Chinese government issued travel and study warnings to Japan, halted imports of Japanese seafood, canceled cultural exchange events, and performances by Japanese artists, implementing a series of economic and personal sanctions known as the "Limit Japan Order."

Simultaneously, hardline messages against Japan flooded SNS. The official account of the People's Liberation Army posted in Japanese and Chinese, "If Japan intervenes militarily in the Taiwan Strait, it will pay a price that will shatter it."

Chinese military-related accounts posted satirical cartoons on X, depicting Prime Minister Takaichi being chased by a monster in flames and walking towards a Yasukuni Shrine engulfed in hellish fire, warning that he is "digging his own grave and advancing on a path of no return."

Chinese state media continuously broadcasted strong critiques such as "If Japan intervenes militarily in the Taiwan Strait, it will be met with a head-on blow" and "We will not allow Japan to return to the path of militarism." SNS is fully operational as a giant speaker amplifying the government's message.Wikipedia

4. Japan's Timeline: Coexistence of Anger, Anxiety, and Calmness

Meanwhile, the SNS space on the Japanese side is not calm.

Opposition lawmaker Renho stated on X, "Diplomacy requires courtesy," sending a strong protest message against the Chinese Consul General's abusive remarks. Leaders of the Komeito Party and the Japan Innovation Party similarly criticized the actions on X as "unbecoming of a diplomat."Wikipedia

Looking at the timeline, roughly three types of voices coexist.

1. "Pro-Takaichi Faction"
   Voices of support such as "A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency" and "He just said what needed to be said." Some reports indicate that in public opinion polls, about half supported the exercise of self-defense in the event of a Taiwan emergency.Wikipedia

2. "Cautious/Opposition Faction"
   There are also numerous posts criticizing Takaichi's remarks, saying, "Stating specific conditions weakens deterrence" and "Unnecessarily provoking China." Protests demanding retraction or resignation were held in front of the Prime Minister's Office, and the scenes were spread in real-time.Wikipedia

3. "Those Mocking Chinese Propaganda"
   A meme culture emerged, pointing out grammatical errors in Japanese posters posted by the Chinese military and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and playing with "Ministry of Foreign Affairs-style generators" and "Ministry of Defense-style generators." Alongside serious security discussions, black humor functions as a way to vent anger.Wikipedia

Japanese society is shaken, but there is also data indicating that support for the Takaichi Cabinet has actually risen, suggesting that this crisis may have the side effect of reinforcing the image of a "strong leader."Wikipedia

5. Taiwan's SNS: Solidarity with Japan and the Sentiment of "Not Wanting to Become a Battlefield"

Taiwan's timeline has a different temperature.

When China decided to completely halt Japanese seafood imports, President Lai Ching-te posted a photo of himself eating Japanese seafood dishes on SNS, expressing support for Japan. Foreign Minister Joseph Wu also stated, "We need to support Japan and stop China's bullying." The Taiwanese government decided to lift all import restrictions on Japanese food, and ruling party politicians collectively showed solidarity by posting photos of trips to Japan and Japanese cuisine.Wikipedia

On the other hand, Taiwan's opposition party, the Kuomintang, and pro-unification groups opposed Takaichi's remarks, criticizing that it would "drag Taiwan into war." They performed a radical act of "beheading" a doll of President Lai Ching-te in front of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association, and the video caused controversy on SNS.Wikipedia

Furthermore, Taiwan's security authorities have warned that Chinese intelligence agencies are spreading false information via SNS, such as "Taiwan's representative in Japan bribed Prime Minister Takaichi," using pro-China forces and anonymous Facebook pages to disseminate it.Wikipedia

In a nutshell, the atmosphere on Taiwan's SNS is one of "gratitude towards Japan and anxiety caught between the escalations of both China and Japan."

6. Foreign Minister Joseph Wu's "Soft Support for Japan"

In contrast to the fierce exchanges on SNS, Foreign Minister Joseph Wu is taking a strategy of "soft support" for Japan.

In an interview, he called on Taiwanese people to "continue traveling to Japan and buying Japanese products to show quiet support." While a storm of travel cancellations blows from China, Taiwan is providing "counter-wind support" through tourism and consumption.InfoMoney

Foreign Minister Wu also mentioned that he is closely exchanging information with "like-minded countries" such as the United States and Europe, aiming to ensure that the Japan-China conflict remains within the framework of diplomatic negotiations rather than military clashes.InfoMoney

7. The Triangular Relationship Connecting the Trump Administration, Taiwan, and China

We must not forget the third player, the United States.

Foreign Minister Wu revealed that the Trump administration is likely to allow a transit in the U.S. during President Lai Ching-te's visit to Central and South America. In fact, President Trump once denied a similar request in August this year, out of consideration for U.S.-China trade negotiations and a summit with President Xi Jinping.InfoMoney

If this transit is realized, it could cast a shadow over the implementation of the "one-year trade truce" agreed upon by the U.S. and China during talks in South Korea. Nevertheless, Foreign Minister Wu expressed strong confidence in the pipeline with the U.S., stating, "There is no doubt about the Trump administration's commitment to Indo-Pacific security."InfoMoney

In other words, behind the Japan-China conflict lies a complex intertwining of "U.S.-China relations" and "U.S.-Taiwan relations," with Taiwan trying to secure its own security while caught in the middle of all these dynamics.

8. What Will East Asia Look Like a Year from Now?

The "one year" mentioned by Foreign Minister Wu is not merely a calendar time.

• Cooling down domestic public opinion in China and determining how much to relax sanctions

• How much Japan adjusts the tone of its statements while advancing defense capabilities

• Whether Taiwan can maintain cooperation with Japan and the U.S. while ensuring practical stability with China

These are all time needed for careful "adjustment."

During this time, SNS will likely become an even more important battlefield. In an era where diplomats, politicians, and ordinary citizens can sway the emotions of another country with a 140-character sentence, the stakes are high.

In this crisis, all sorts of posts swirled, from aggressive ones bordering on hate speech to memes and parodies for venting, and quiet messages of solidarity. The "year of tension" warned by Taiwan's foreign minister is not only about the movement of warships but also about the ongoing exchange of words on timelines.

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