Can the "established" PayPal make a comeback? The assets and winning strategies targeted by Stripe

Can the "established" PayPal make a comeback? The assets and winning strategies targeted by Stripe

In the world of payments, there is speculation at a level that could "change the map" if it truly happens. One of the largest private payment infrastructure companies, Stripe, is showing interest in acquiring either the "entire" or "part of the assets" of PayPal. Following the reports, PayPal's stock price reacted significantly, and the market quickly began to incorporate the restructuring scenario. However, discussions are still in the early stages, and there is no guarantee that a deal will be reached. Yet, there are enough reasons to believe it could happen, as both companies currently have the necessary elements.


1. What was reported: The key point is "all" or "part"

The core of the current situation is that Stripe is reported to be considering the acquisition of PayPal, not only as a whole but also including "part of its assets." Even in acquisitions, M&A involving the entire company is not the only answer. PayPal holds several significant businesses, such as Braintree, the payment processing foundation, and Venmo, strong in peer-to-peer transfers, which could be viable pieces even if separated. It's this potential for "partial acquisition" that makes the speculation sound even more realistic.


In the context of the reports, it was previously conveyed that PayPal was facing a slump in stock prices and growth slowdown, which increased external acquisition interest. In this extended scenario, Stripe emerged as a "specific name."


2. Why PayPal is "targeted" now: A structure with both weaknesses and strengths

The main reason PayPal is often discussed as an acquisition target is that, while its weaknesses are prominent, its "asset value" remains significant.


The weaknesses include slowing growth and an intensifying competitive environment. As Big Tech's payment functions become integrated into daily life and online payments become more commonplace, PayPal's former advantages are relatively diminishing. Additionally, its structure is susceptible to economic and consumer fluctuations, making it difficult to meet investor expectations consistently.


However, its strengths are also substantial. PayPal has a global user base and payment network, along with several strong brands. Reports indicate that the foundation's thickness, such as transaction volume and active accounts, remains immense, and some continue to offer bullish evaluations based on perceived undervaluation.


In other words, PayPal is becoming a "stagnant giant asset." If such a giant asset can be revitalized through management reform, the returns could be significant, and even if divided and sold, there would be buyers. The conditions for a restructuring story are well in place.


3. What Stripe gains: A B2B powerhouse acquiring "consumer pathways"?

Stripe holds an overwhelming presence as a payment platform for e-commerce, SaaS, and platforms, and in recent years, it has been reported to have an increased valuation and improved profitability.


If Stripe were to reach out to PayPal, the objectives could be broadly categorized into three.


(1) Gaining scale: Leveraging transaction volume and merchant network

In the world of payments, scale matters. The larger the transaction volume, the more effective investments in risk management, fraud detection, and network optimization become, accelerating product improvements. If Stripe can incorporate PayPal's assets, particularly its existing merchant network and payment processing infrastructure, it could potentially achieve a "leap in scale" all at once.


(2) Brand and consumer touchpoints: The significance of the PayPal button

While Stripe has the strength of being the "back-end infrastructure," its brand touchpoints directly perceived by consumers are not as strong as PayPal's. PayPal has long functioned as a "trusted face" at checkouts. Acquiring this would allow Stripe to move beyond the B2B infrastructure framework and envision a broader payment ecosystem.


(3) The appeal of "piece buying": Not needing everything, just the core

On the other hand, acquiring the entire company is costly and integration is challenging. This is where "partial assets" become more realistic. The market repeatedly suggests that acquiring the entire company is a high hurdle, and that separating assets like Venmo or Braintree might be more feasible.


4. Nonetheless, there are many challenges: Integration, regulation, and cultural hurdles

Let's talk about "reality" rather than "dreams" from here on. There are at least three reasons why Stripe×PayPal is challenging.

(1) Integration risk: Different products and customer bases

Stripe has a worldview centered on developer experience and APIs, while PayPal's world mixes consumer/merchant brand pathways and legacy operations. Their technical foundations, review/risk management, and customer support operational philosophies differ. Integration isn't "addition" but comes with the cost of "friction."

(2) Regulatory barriers: Payments are financial, and finance is political

The integration of large payments cannot avoid the scrutiny of competition and financial authorities in various countries. The more global the business spreads, the more complex the review becomes. Even if it's just acquiring part of the assets, if the impact is significant, authorities will pay attention.

(3) Pricing issues: Even if it seems cheap, the total cost is heavy

PayPal's market capitalization is said to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars at the time of the report. Although Stripe is unlisted, it is reported to have a high valuation, and theoretically, a "stock exchange-like idea" might emerge, but large-scale acquisitions by unlisted companies are challenging in terms of fundraising and structural design.


5. Reactions on social media: A mix of expectations and cynicism, with the focus on "what to buy"

 

This topic is easy to spread on social media. In addition to the straightforwardness of "a giant in payments might buy another giant," people's likes and dislikes of PayPal directly affect user experience, making opinions easily divided.


Here, we organize the "typical reaction patterns" observed immediately after the report (the authenticity and comprehensiveness of individual posts cannot be guaranteed, so this is summarized as a trend of discussion points visible from public posts).


Optimists: "Even just Braintree/Venmo is valuable," "Stripe can revive it"

In the investor community, voices are prominent saying, "Even if it's not everything, it's reasonable to take only the valuable departments." In fact, analyst articles also discuss the realism of "part over whole."

 
On Reddit, there were speculations like "Stripe fits best as a candidate," and discussions mentioning the feasibility in terms of funding.


Skeptics: "Integration is hell," "The cultures are too different"

The opposing side argues not to underestimate the cost of integration. Especially in payments, "the gritty operations" like fraud prevention, chargebacks, and policy enforcement affect profits. On Reddit, dissatisfaction and caution regarding Stripe and PayPal's freezes, reviews, and risk operations are routinely discussed, with a strong sense that "the bigger it gets, the more disputes arise."


Realists: "In the end, it's just a rumor," "The market is getting excited on its own"

Many see it as a "rumor market," given that the report is at an "early stage" and both companies are avoiding comments. The interpretation is that short-term funds moved based on the news, causing the stock price to jump. Indeed, the recent rise is explained as a reaction to the report.


Prediction markets: "Probabilities are split" = Visualization of uncertainty

Interestingly, in prediction markets, the "probability of establishment" is immediately quantified and fluctuates. On platforms like Polymarket, questions like "Will Stripe acquire PayPal in 2026?" are posed, and the current probabilities are presented (market prices are not the truth, but they serve as an indicator of the "temperature of uncertainty").


6. Future focus: Viewing through three scenarios

Finally, let's organize the focus for the future into scenarios.

Scenario A: Large-scale restructuring close to a full acquisition (Difficulty: Highest)

The triple challenge of scale, regulation, and integration. If realized, it would be historic, but the barriers are the largest.

Scenario B: Acquisition of part of the assets (Difficulty: Medium)

This is the most realistic. Negotiations may progress over assets like Braintree or Venmo, which have clear value and can be separated. Market comments repeatedly suggest this direction.

Scenario C: Nothing happens (Difficulty: Low = Likely)

The most likely scenario is that discussions occur but no deal is reached, or it settles with another buyer or restructuring plan. It was reported even the day before that "discussions are in the early stages, and there is a possibility that no deal will be reached."


Conclusion: The essence of this topic is the battle over "PayPal's next form"

Whether Stripe will actually make a move is still unknown to anyone. However, what this observation has shown is that PayPal has moved beyond being evaluated solely on a "growth story as a standalone entity,"and has begun to be discussed with the premise of "asset restructuring" or "reorganization."This change is significant.


Payments, while being infrastructure, are also a "mixed martial arts" where UX, trust, regulation, and fraud prevention intricately intertwine. If the developer-centric agility that Stripe excels at and the vast consumer touchpoints that PayPal has built were to be combined, the impact would be immeasurable. On the other hand, the difficulty of integration is equally enormous.


Because this is a theme where market enthusiasm can easily get ahead, what should be watched is not the stock price of a single day, but"which assets move, at what price, and under what conditions."That's where the "real news" of this story will emerge.


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