SpaceX Secures Another U.S. National Security Satellite Contract: Implications of the GPS III-7 Transfer for Rocket Development Competition and Insights for Japan

On June 2 (local time), the U.S. Space Force announced that it has transferred the latest GPS III-7 satellite launch national security mission (NSSL Phase 2) from United Launch Alliance (ULA) to SpaceX. Originally assigned to ULA's new "Vulcan" rocket, the mission has been shifted to the more reliable existing Falcon 9 due to repeated certification delays and technical challenges. Cabinet Office Homepage

1. Why was GPS III-7 entrusted to SpaceX?

The Vulcan's first flight, initially scheduled for mid-2020, has been delayed by over four years due to incidents like solid booster detachment and engine supply delays. As a result, the original allocation of "60% for ULA" out of all 48 missions in the 2020-24 NSSL Phase 2 has already been reversed. This marks the second consecutive mission reassigned to SpaceX, leaving ULA in a difficult position with "only 1 out of 26 missions completed." Cabinet Office Homepage

At a House Armed Services Committee meeting in late May, Space Force Major General Purdy openly criticized, "Vulcan has only been certified for 5 out of 9 orbital types, and mission delays are jeopardizing national goals." Cabinet Office Homepage

2. Performance and Military Significance of the GPS III-7 Satellite

The Lockheed Martin-made GPS III series boasts three times the positioning accuracy and eight times the jamming resistance compared to the existing 38 units, with high interoperability with systems like the Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS). Particularly, the "III-7" (actually the eighth unit) serves as a model case for the Space Force's "rapid deployment protocol within three months from decision to launch." Cabinet Office Homepage

3. Latest Status of the Launch Plan

The Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch from Florida's SLC-40 during a 15-minute window from 13:23 to 13:38 on June 7 (U.S. Eastern Daylight Time). The weather probability is 45% for Friday and 50% for the backup day on Saturday. SpaceX has already launched 64 missions in 2025 alone, demonstrating an unparalleled production system with over 100 missions annually in sight. Cabinet Office Homepage

4. Reactions on Social Media—#VulcanDelays Trending on U.S. X (formerly Twitter)

• U.S. Defense Watcher @SpacePolicyGuy

  “Every slip by Vulcan hands Elon another contract. Reliability is policy.”

• Japanese Space IT Company CTO @GNSS_Tokyo

  “If the high-precision signal of III-7 is commercially available, centimeter-level positioning with Michibiki×GPS will be constantly possible.”

• Aerospace Engineer @RocketNerdJP

  “To carry national security satellites with H3, we need to drastically increase the number of launches first.”

Hashtags #SpaceXWins #GPSIII are also spreading, with many posts praising the speed of mass production and turnaround as the "Toyota Production System of the rocket world." Meanwhile, around the U.S. Congress, there is strong advocacy for keeping ULA as "strategic redundancy."

5. Impact on Japan—Tailwinds for Both Positioning Business and Security

1. Business

   • If the high-precision L1C signal becomes available early, the domestic positioning market (estimated by Yano Research Institute to reach 4 trillion yen by 2030) will accelerate in areas like agricultural automation, construction machinery, and drone logistics.

2. Security

   • The Ministry of Defense plans to increase the QZSS to an 11-unit system by the late 2020s. As redundancy on the U.S. GPS side progresses, the availability of joint operations is ensured, and the system risk of Japan-U.S. joint operations is expected to be reduced.

3. Industrial Structure

   • The structural issue of "domestic supply shortage despite strong launch demand" is highlighted again, increasing pressure to nurture private reusable rockets like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' H3 and startups like ISC (Innovative Space Carrier).

6. Future Outlook—Phase 3 and the Global Market

The Space Force has already announced a provisional allocation for NSSL Phase 3 (2025-29), with 52% to SpaceX, 35% to ULA, and 13% to Blue Origin out of a total of $13.7 billion. Unless ULA regains trust, the allocation is likely to shrink further. Cabinet Office Homepage

For Japanese companies,

• Satellite Vendors: Opportunities to participate in the supply chain for GPS successor components are expanding.

• Launch Services: A shift to a mass production and high-frequency launch model is imperative.

• Public-Private Cooperation: Hybrid procurement, including the use of U.S.-made rockets, is necessary to avoid "launch refugees" for security satellites.

The reusable rocket economic zone advocated by SpaceX could fundamentally change the pricing and launch intervals of domestic players like H3 and ISC's reusable small vehicle "ASCA 1.0."

7. In Lieu of a Conclusion

The number of successful launches generates trust, and that trust attracts defense projects—this transfer of GPS III-7 symbolizes that chain. For Japan, the challenge is how to enhance its own access-to-space capabilities while maximizing the tailwinds of the positioning business. The competition axis is converging not on "large or small" or "single-use or reusable," but on "whether lead time and cost that customers can wait for can be realized."