Is a Market Crash the "Best Buying Opportunity"? Conditions for Those Who Can Turn a Bear Market to Their Advantage

Is a Market Crash the "Best Buying Opportunity"? Conditions for Those Who Can Leverage a Bear Market

The moment you open your brokerage account, you find your assets have decreased compared to yesterday. The news is filled with ominous headlines, and on social media, predictions of "further declines" and posts claiming "now is the time to buy" are circulating.

If you sell, you fear missing out on a rebound. If you buy, you fear further declines. Even if you do nothing, you feel like you're the only one making the wrong decision.

In such situations, investor Tim Schäfer offers a contrarian perspective. In an article published on September 30, 2026, he discussed the potential benefits of a bear market for long-term asset building.

However, interpreting this perspective as "buy any stock that has fallen" changes the narrative significantly.

Whether a bear market presents an opportunity is not determined by stock prices alone. It involves the target of your purchase, the timing of using that money, and the conditions of life that allow you to continue investing.

The Meaning of Price Drops Differs for Buyers and Holders

When stock prices fall, the valuation of assets already held decreases. On the other hand, the quantity you can buy with the money you plan to invest increases. There are two sides to the same decline.

For example, without considering fees, let's say you purchase the same product every month for 10,000 yen. If the price is 1,000 yen per unit, you can buy 10 units; if it's 800 yen, you can buy 12.5 units.

This is a simple calculation. However, being able to buy more cheaply does not equate to making a profit in the end. If prices drop further after your purchase, the newly acquired shares will also incur losses.

Additionally, for those with substantial assets, the impact of asset depreciation may outweigh the benefits of additional purchases.

For those accumulating assets and those living off their assets, the same market can mean different things. The phrase "a crash is welcome" requires conditions specifying for whom and for which funds.

Don't Confuse Individual Stock Plunges with a Market-wide Crisis

At the beginning of the original article, Schäfer mentions a roughly 12% drop in CTS Eventim and over a 20% drop in Fair Isaac, highlighting the price movements of individual stocks he holds.

From this, one cannot directly conclude that "the global stock market has entered a bear market."

In fact, a comment in the original article's comment section noted that the MSCI World appeared stable on September 30, indicating that impressions of individual stocks can differ from those of diversified investment targets.

A significant drop in held stocks is a strong event for investors. However, judgment requires an additional level of separation.

Is it an issue specific to that company? Is it a problem common to the same industry? Or is capital being withdrawn from the broader market?

Different causes require different information to be verified.

"Cheaper Than Before" and "Undervalued" Are Different Matters

If a stock that was 10,000 yen drops to 7,000 yen, it is certainly cheaper than before. However, that alone does not determine if it is undervalued.

What if the company's profit outlook has significantly worsened? Even if the stock price has dropped by 30%, expectations for the business may have declined even more.

Management turmoil, intensified competition, and decreased demand for core products cannot be dismissed as mere market sentiment. Sometimes, a business overhaul is necessary to return to previous stock prices.

Here, it's important to distinguish between long-term holding and ceasing to reassess the reasons for buying.

A price drop alone does not necessarily mean you need to sell in a panic. Conversely, continuing to hold based solely on the hope that "it will return someday" when investment assumptions have changed is risky.

The task of finding a bargain price involves verifying the reasons for that price.

The Honest Feelings on Social Media: "I Want to Continue, But I'm Scared"

Investor reactions to a bear market cannot be neatly categorized into bullish or bearish.

On April 30, 2025, a post on the investment community "r/Bogleheads" on the overseas forum Reddit asked how to maintain an investment strategy amidst continuous bad news.

The poster explained that they continue to invest in the ETF "VTI," which targets the broad U.S. stock market, but expressed feeling challenged when surrounded by reports suggesting the world is collapsing.

What is noteworthy is that even those who continue to invest feel anxious. Behind seemingly calm actions, doubts have not disappeared.

In another post on April 11, 2025, an opinion was expressed that reconsidering one's investment strategy when unexpected events occur is meaningful, provided it doesn't lead to panic. The effectiveness of sticking to a strategy depends on whether the original strategy is appropriate.

These are not direct responses to the current article but posts concerning past market uncertainties. They represent some voices from a community focused on long-term and diversified investments and do not reflect the overall sentiment of all investors.

Nevertheless, the two posts reflect a common dilemma. They don't want to be swayed by emotions, but they also don't want to stop thinking. Many individual investors are searching for that boundary.

Maintaining Composure Requires Conditions on the Lifestyle Side as Well

Even if stock prices fall, if next month's rent and living expenses are separately secured, there is less immediate need to sell.

Conversely, what if you have invested money that you plan to use soon? Even if you believe in market recovery, payment deadlines won't wait.

The Financial Services Agency's explanation of asset building also places income and expenditure management and life planning at its core, suggesting a balanced approach to savings and investments based on asset status and life plans.

From this perspective, considering a bear market involves more than just "how much can you buy."

Can you maintain your lifestyle even if your income decreases? When will expenses related to education or housing occur? Even with additional investments, can you secure the necessary funds?

For example, if your income decreases before stock prices recover and you need to sell your assets, the decision to buy more could become a heavy burden on your household finances.

The leeway to continue investing includes not only emotional leeway but also financial leeway.

Systematic Investment Plans Don't Require You to "Hit the Bottom," But They Don't Guarantee Profits

The Financial Services Agency describes systematic investment plans as a method of consistently investing a predetermined amount. It helps avoid the behavior of not buying during low periods and only buying during high periods.

The advantage is that you don't have to decide "whether today is the right time to buy" each time.

If you try to significantly increase your investment amount with each decline, you might run out of funds for the next downturn. Continuing with a predetermined amount can reduce the burden of such decisions.

However, systematic investment does not mean you won't incur losses. Diversified investment aims to mitigate price fluctuations, not eliminate losses.

When preparing for a downturn, it's necessary to check whether the investment amount matches your current lifestyle. Changes in income or expenses can make previously manageable amounts burdensome.

Can You Choose to "Do Nothing" on Your Own?

When the market is volatile, buying and selling can seem like a way to address the problem. Reading the news and placing orders can at least give you a sense of having done something.

However, taking action and improving the situation are not the same.

On the other hand, doing nothing is not always correct. If you find issues such as excessive concentration in specific stocks or investing money intended for other uses, it becomes a reason to reconsider.

Three questions can serve as a useful starting point for making decisions:

• When do you plan to use this money?
• Do the reasons for buying still hold true?
• Can you maintain necessary payments even if prices fall further?

After confirming the answers, you might continue with your strategy or change your investment amount or allocation. Either way, it differs from a reflexive reaction to headlines.

The idea of leveraging a bear market has the power to reconsider asset building over a long period. However, whether you can take advantage of that opportunity is not determined by the purchase price alone.

On days of decline, the question is not just "Do you have the courage to buy now?" but also whether you can continue your lifestyle and investment after making that decision.

Source URL

1. FinanzNachrichten.de:
   Published on September 30, 2026. Introduction to an article by Tim Schäfer on bear markets and long-term investment. The decline rates of individual stocks are introduced as described in the same article.
   https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2026-09/69722527-warum-die-baisse-dein-bester-freund-ist-wenn-du-den-magen-dafuer-hast-505.htmwenn du den Magen dafür hast

2. Tim Schäfer Media: Full text and reader comments.
   Check the author's view of a bear market as a long-term investment opportunity and reader comments touching on the MSCI World's movements.
   https://timschaefermedia.com/warum-die-baisse-dein-bester-freund-ist-wenn-du-den-magen-dafuer-hast/Tim Schäfer Media

3. Financial Services Agency "Basics of Asset Building": Explanation of household management, life planning, long-term, systematic, and diversified investment.
   Refer to the differentiation of savings and investments, features of systematic investment, the concept of diversification, and the risk of capital loss.
   https://www.fsa.go.jp/policy/nisa2/invest/fsa.go.jp

4. Reddit "How do you stay the course when everything looks bad?": April 30, 2025 post.
   Summary of the sentiments of a poster who continues to invest in VTI despite feeling anxious. Not a direct response to the current article.
   https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1kb8h98/reddit.com

5. Reddit "Unpopular opinion: it's good to rethink your investment strategy when something unexpected happens (but not to panic!)": April 11, 2025 post.
   Summary of opinions distinguishing between panic and calmly reassessing investment strategies. Not a direct response to the current article.
   https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1jwrvys/