The Trap of "Going Viral" ― Who Do Politicians' Emotional Tweets Influence and Who Do They Alienate? : The Optimal Point of Political Communication

Introduction: The Reality Beyond the "Buzz"

Every election season, timelines heat up with strong words, anger, and ridicule. Certainly, this generates diffusion and increases "visibility." But does it really expand the circle of support? The latest peer-reviewed research supports the long-held "gut feeling" with data: emotional posts may garner reactions, but they are not a decisive factor in increasing followers (i.e., potential support base). Moreover, the more diverse the audience, the more it can backfire.Phys.org

Key Findings of the Study: "Emotions Spread, but People Don't Increase"

Published in Information Systems Research, this study quantitatively analyzed the relationship between emotional expression, engagement (RTs, likes, etc.), and net increase in followers, focusing on over 70,000 X (formerly Twitter) posts by U.S. Senators in 2018. The conclusion is simple.

• Emotional language boosts short-term engagement. Negative emotions like anger and indignation particularly tend to increase reactions.

• However, it does not contribute to an increase in followers. The act of following is influenced by substantive factors such as topics.

• The higher the political diversity of the audience, the more the effect of emotional messages diminishes, and in some cases, it can backfire. The research team positions this as the first achievement to introduce the concept that "emotionality does not work for gaining followers" and "stakeholder diversity" in this field.
  Phys.org

Why "Following" Doesn't Increase: The Dynamics of Psychology and Platforms

Emotions generate diffusion. This has been consistently observed in other studies as well. For example, expressions of indignation are easily reproduced when social reinforcement is at work (moral anger increases through reinforcement learning), and high-arousal emotions enhance transmissibility.Science

However, the explosiveness of diffusion and the sustainability of "connections" are different matters. Many users do not follow political elites in the first place, and those who do have a strong conformity bias—this fundamental situation is hard to overcome with emotional stimuli alone.Science

Moreover, today's SNS environment is decentralized. Specialized communities are moving to platforms like Bluesky and Threads, and particularly in academic and news fields, "high-quality engagement" is observed on Bluesky. This means that an increase in engagement on a single platform is not easily linked to a cross-platform increase in followers (and thus the expansion of the support base).The Guardian

"Diversity" as the Key: Why Does Backfire Occur?

The novelty of the research lies in shedding light on the political diversity of the audience. In a homogeneous supporter community, strong words call for "applause of unity." On the other hand, in a place with a wide spectrum of opinions, strong words are more likely to stimulate resistance or antipathy from non-supporters. As a result, overall engagement dulls, and the window for following (i.e., continuous contact) does not open. This is consistent with previous studies showing the transmissibility of negative emotions and the "social rewards of conflict."Phys.org　PMC

SNS Reactions: A Snapshot of Initial Diffusion

As of the writing of this article (October 17, 2025), the research findings are spreading through scientific and PR media such as Phys.org, EurekAlert!, Scienmag, and Mirage News. On the Scienmag page, "65 SHARES" is displayed, indicating a steady start for a press release. On the other hand, the sharing of the Phys.org article itself is limited, and large-scale backlash or extreme divisive reactions are hard to confirm.Science

Additionally, as a platform situation, the recent trend of some scientific and news communities emphasizing discussions on Bluesky cannot be ignored. Such "diversification of diffusion venues" weakens the effectiveness of a single emotional strategy and rather increases the importance of message design that considers the diversity of the audience.The Guardian

In summary, the experiential rule often spoken of in practice, "Engagement ≠ Growth," has been substantiated by this peer-reviewed research.Phys.org

Practical Insights: From "Winning Posts" to "Connecting Posts"

Whether in political, administrative, or corporate communications, "low to medium emotional + high informational value" becomes advantageous in the following situations.

• Situations Where You Want to Reach a Broad Audience: Policy and system introductions, new audience development, town hall announcements including opposition.

• Cross-Platform Operations: When deploying in parallel not only on X but also on Bluesky and Threads.The Guardian

Specific Design Recipes

1. Topic-Driven: Following reacts to the substance of topics, etc. Clearly state in one sentence what can be learned or what will change in the introduction.Phys.org

2. Emotions as "Spice": Overuse of anger and ridicule can backfire in diverse settings. If necessary, use a three-step structure of "raise interest → present content → constructive action."Phys.org

3. Separate Reaction Goals: Diffusion (RTs, etc.) and growth (following) should have separate KPIs. Design separate posts aimed at diffusion and "worth following" permanent content for new audiences.

4. Adjust the Vector of Empathy: Instead of relying on anger (high arousal, negative), try various emotions such as reassurance and expectation (medium arousal, positive).Frontiers

5. Adapt to Diversity: The higher the heterogeneity of the audience, the more specific information, Q&A, and reference links should be used to reduce "room for speculation."

6. Feedback Design: Expressions of anger are easily reinforced. Remove "intrinsic rewards for anger bias" from evaluation metrics within the operation team.Science

Thinking in Cases: When Does "Anger" Help?

Emotions are not always bad. They are effective for cohesion within the community and mobilizing existing supporters (e.g., calling for participation in single-camp events). However, when you want to "expand the horizon of support," strong words become a blade. The "backfire" in diverse settings was clearly shown in this data.Phys.org

Points to Note: Limitations and Extrapolation of This Study

• Timing and Subjects: The data is from X posts by U.S. Senators in 2018. Caution is needed when extrapolating to outside the U.S., other professions, or other platforms.Phys.org

• Platform Fluctuations: Changes in APIs, algorithms, and user composition are rapid. Especially in 2024-25, the ecosystem is fluid with the rise of Bluesky.The Guardian

• Context Dependence of Emotions: Optimal values fluctuate during election periods, crisis communications, policy debates, etc. Previous studies also report that the direction of diffusibility changes depending on arousal level and context.Frontiers

Nevertheless, "Sincerity" Wins: In Lieu of a Conclusion

Diffusion is momentary, following is a relationship. The data teaches that short-term stimuli do not equate to long-term trust. If you want to open doors to a diverse audience, lower the emotional intensity a bit and increase the resolution of information. Beyond the buzz, quiet and strong support is born.Phys.org