Elon Musk Warns of the Impact of Trump's Tax Reform and the Future of Electric Vehicles: The "#SlimBeautifulBill" War

▍Chapter 1: The "Sudden Death" of EV Credits

The proposal to abolish credits is an amendment submitted by Republican Senator John Barrasso and others. It consists of three main points: ① ending tax credits for new and used EV purchases within 180 days, ② expiring credits for leased vehicles by September 30, and ③ phasing out investment credits for EV chargers and home storage batteries. The Senate proposal is even more accelerated than the House version, with EV purchases after September 30 becoming immediately $0.reuters.comelectrek.co

▍Chapter 2: Musk's X Posts and "Political Suicide" Remarks

Between the night of the 28th and the morning of the 29th, Musk posted a total of 37 posts. He wrote, "The Republican Party has thrown away its last chance to face fossil fuels" and "This is political suicide for the GOP," mobilizing his 1.9 billion followers and even distributing a template urging them to call senators.ndtvprofit.compolitico.com

▍Chapter 3: The Trump Camp's Counterattack

On the morning of the 29th, Trump told reporters in front of the White House, "He (Musk) went crazy as soon as he left government office," and warned, "We will review defense and space-related contracts with Tesla." The Republican National Committee (RNC) unveiled the official logo for #SlimBeautifulBill on the same day, promoting it as a "slim, beautiful bill that doesn't rely on subsidies." Both camps issued a total of five statements and videos within just 10 hours, dominating the news cycle.irishtimes.comcbtnews.com

▍Chapter 4: The Collapse of the "Policy Premium" Shown by the Market

On June 30, in the U.S. stock market, Tesla shares fell by 14.3% compared to the previous day, evaporating $150 billion in market value, marking the largest single-day drop in the company's history. The NASDAQ index also fell by 3.1%. Analysts estimate that "the removal of EV credits will reduce Tesla's profits by a cumulative $3.8 billion by 2026," while Ford and GM also fell by 7-9% on the same day.reuters.comreuters.com

▍Chapter 5: The Frenzy on Social Media and the Division of Public Opinion

According to social media analysis company NewsWhip, from the 28th to the 30th, there were approximately 2.4 million related posts, with a total of 4.5 billion impressions. Sentiment analysis showed **41% negative / 33% positive / 26% neutral**, with a tendency for Republican supporters to be more positive. By hashtag,

• #KillTheBill … 980,000 posts (mainly environmental NGOs and EV owners)

• #SlimBeautifulBill … 640,000 posts (conservative think tanks and the oil industry)

• #CutThePork … 410,000 posts (fiscal conservatives)
  were among the top.twitter.com
  
  

▍Chapter 6: Impact on Supply Chains and Employment

Research company IHS Markit estimates that the abolition of credits will reduce the share of new EVs in the U.S. in 2030 from "48% to 42%", and that 270,000 jobs will be lost. Particularly in Nevada and Texas, where the battery supply chain is concentrated, there is a risk of losing up to 120,000 jobs.businessinsider.comreuters.com

▍Chapter 7: International Repercussions

EU Climate Commissioner Timmermans stated, "If the U.S. stops supporting EVs, the EU will have no choice but to expand the application of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)." Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Freeland also hinted at the possibility of counter-tariffs. As a result, the bill is becoming an incentive for increased trade friction and industrial policy competition.carscoops.com

▍Chapter 8: The Industry's Lobbying Battle

On the 29th, 70 U.S. IT, automotive, and renewable energy companies launched a new organization called **"Tech4Future", announcing they would invest $500 million in lobbying funds to launch a "Clean Jobs Defense Campaign." As an initial move, they will air TV ads in **22 Senate "battleground" districts** to sway moderate Republicans.caranddriver.com

▍Chapter 9: The Fate of the Bill

After passing the Senate, the bill needs to be reconciled with the House version, which has its own amendments, and is expected to be re-voted on the night of July 3 and signed by the President on the morning of the 4th at the earliest. However, even within the Republican Party, there is opposition from fiscal hawks and auto union-affiliated lawmakers, with a motion emerging to **"separate the EV provisions for a separate vote."** The power game between the administration and Tesla is expected to continue.cbtnews.com

▍Conclusion

This clash is not merely Musk vs. Trump, but rather reflects a choice of direction for the United States between **"breaking away from subsidy dependence" and "fostering green industries."** Will the country cut subsidies and promote free competition, or will it pursue "state capitalism" to compete with rival nations? At the moment the bill is passed, the U.S. will stand at a historic crossroads in terms of energy, employment, and geopolitics.