Bitcoin breaks psychological barrier; is the next battle the "80,000 dollar risk"?

1. What Happened (Understanding by Numbers)

On November 5, Bitcoin temporarily fell to $96,794, dropping below $100,000 for the first time since June. This represents a correction of more than 20% from the recent all-time high (approximately $126,000 in early October). Ethereum fell by up to 15%, and there are reports that less liquid altcoins have dropped over 50% year-to-date. There was a slight rebound to the $101,000 range during the Asian morning hours the next day.NDTV Profit

2. "Low Conviction Selling"—Aftermath of October's Historic Liquidation

A report from NDTV/Bloomberg describes the recent drop as "low conviction selling." On the 5th, the total liquidation amount was about $1 billion, which is small compared to the "record" liquidation of approximately $19 billion on October 10. Futures positions are still recovering from October's shock, and even though funding costs have improved, there are still few participants rebuilding bullish positions.NDTV Profit

3. Increased Demand for Puts on Deribit—Hedging Focused on $80,000 Strike

There is speculation of strong demand for $80,000 puts expiring at the end of November in the options market. There is significant downward hedging in preparation for price fluctuations, indicating uncertainty about the future. Recently, Deribit's open interest reached record levels, and the focus has shifted to "defensive" strategies following the liquidation shock.NDTV ProfitCoinDesk

4. Deteriorating Flows: ETF Outflows and "Buyer Fatigue"

There have been days with net outflows from spot ETFs recently, and similar headwinds are observed with ETH ETFs. Even large Bitcoin ETFs, which were leaders at the beginning of the year, have seen record single-day outflows. The slowdown in ETF flows suppresses price recovery.Yahoo Finance

5. Selling Pressure from Long-Term Holders

There are reports of increased selling and movement from the long-term holder (LTH) side, reaching a cumulative scale of about $45 billion. Profit-taking by long-term investors is standard in a bull market, but when it coincides with thin supply and demand, it increases downward pressure.NDTV Profit

6. Macro Correlation—AI High Beta Stocks' Decline and "Risk-Off"

The recent sharp drop in BTC was in step with the adjustment of high beta tech stocks, including AI-related ones, from the beginning of the week. Bitcoin moved in tandem with the decline in risk appetite in stocks, functioning more as a "proxy for speculative momentum" than a "hedge for diversification."NDTV Profit

7. Social Media Sentiment: Between #BuyTheDip and #CryptoCrash

• Breaking News Posts: NDTV Profit's official account broke the news of "below $100,000." Media outlets and exchange accounts quickly spread similar posts.X (formerly Twitter)

• Traders' Cautious Remarks: On X, views such as "Recovery to $100,000 is uncertain" and "Danger zone" were prominent, with concerns about short-term volatility.X (formerly Twitter)

• Individual Investor Community: On Reddit's daily thread, there was heated debate over "What caused the drop below $100,000" and "Is it a buying opportunity?" with rebound seekers and those taking a wait-and-see approach evenly matched.Reddit

• News Accounts and Media Tone: Headlines about breaking psychological barriers and "extreme fear" were prevalent, intensifying short-term pessimism.news.com.au+1

In summary, on social media, "buy the dip" supporters (#BuyTheDip) and those warning of further declines (#CryptoCrash) were evenly matched. Many pointed out that when positions become skewed during low-volume periods, they can easily accelerate in one direction (editorial summary).

8. Chart and Key Levels: $100,000 and "Downside Tail"

Technically,$100,000 is a strong psychological level. Whether this can be clearly recovered is the short-term focus. Meanwhile, depending on the hedge positioning in the options market and macro factors, the$90,000 to $80,000 range "downside tail" is also being considered. In the market, there are views such as "If interest rates and the strong dollar continue, $90,000 is possible" and "If $100,000 cannot be maintained, there is room for adjustment towards $72,000."MarketWatch

9. Key Checkpoints to Note Now (Practical Perspective)

1. ETF Flows: A trend reversal in net inflows/outflows changes the price tone.Yahoo Finance

2. Futures Positions and Liquidation Trends: Will the chain of liquidations on the scale of October reignite?coinglass

3. Options Board: Demand balance for downside puts.NDTV Profit

4. Stocks and Interest Rates: Direction of tech stocks, US interest rates, and the dollar index.NDTV Profit

10. Investor Notes (Best Practices for Risk Management)

• Leverage Gradually: Even in "low conviction declines" with few liquidations, sharp rebounds and double bottoms are likely. Manage stop-loss orders and margin reserves.

• Split Limit Orders: Slippage is likely around psychological levels. Distribute buy/sell orders across multiple levels.

• Check in the Order of News → Board → Positions: Prioritize actual flows (ETF, futures, options) over headlines.

• Be Aware of Timeframes: Use volatility for short-term and supply-demand (LTH trades and ETF flows) for long-term decisions.
  
  
  

References and Sources

• NDTV Profit "Bitcoin Falls Below $100,000 As Risk-Off Mood Weighs On Crypto" (2025/11/5). Prices, liquidation scale, options demand, correlation with stocks, etc.NDTV Profit

• Bloomberg "Bitcoin falls as much as 7.4% to $96,794"—Below $100,000 for the first time since June.Bloomberg

• CoinDesk "BTC fell below $100K for first time since June"—Overall market adjustment context.CoinDesk

• CoinGlass News "Largest Ever Liquidation $19B on Oct 10."coinglass

• Yahoo Finance (English) "ETH ETF's Consecutive Outflows and Worsening Flows."Yahoo Finance

• Investopedia "Record Single-Day Outflow at IBIT."Investopedia

• NDTV Profit "Long-Term Holders Released About $45 Billion Worth."NDTV Profit

• News.com.au "Headlines of Breaking Psychological Barriers and 'Extreme Fear'."news.com.au

• NDTV Profit Official X Post (Breaking News).##