In 2030, will a pack of cigarettes cost 12 euros? Germany aims to promote smoking cessation and increase tax revenue — The trajectory of a "46% increase in tobacco prices"

Buying your usual cigarettes. That small expense might weigh about 50% heavier in a few years.

On October 15, the German Bundestag approved a law amendment to gradually increase the tobacco tax. According to an AFP article published in BUSINESS-PANORAMA, the average price of a pack of 20 cigarettes is expected to rise from the current 8.05 euros to 11.78 euros by 2030.

There are two purposes for the tax increase: to reduce health damage caused by smoking and to rebuild the nation's finances.

Meanwhile, the tobacco industry warns that the price increase might drive buyers to the black market or to neighboring countries with cheaper prices. This decision raises a question relevant to Japan as well: "Will raising the price of tobacco solve the problem?"

Average price to rise by about 46%, how will the burden change if you smoke a pack a day?

The original article provided the following outlook for the average price of a pack of 20 cigarettes:

The difference between now and 2030 is 3.73 euros. Calculating the rate of increase, it is about 46.3%.

If you continue to purchase one pack daily, the annual expenditure would be 2,938.25 euros at the current price and 4,299.70 euros in 2030. The difference is 1,361.45 euros annually. This is a simple calculation assuming the purchase quantity remains unchanged, but it highlights how daily price increases can accumulate in household expenses.

However, 11.78 euros is not a uniform selling price applied to all products. It is an average price outlook considering the tax increase, and the actual burden will vary depending on the brand, the number of cigarettes per pack, and future pricing strategies.

Moreover, it is not entirely accurate to interpret this entire price difference as "the tax increase per pack." It is necessary to distinguish between retail price and tax amount.

Not just cigarettes—impact on rolling tobacco and e-cigarettes

This revision does not only target cigarettes.

According to the original article, rolling tobacco, cigars, cigarillos, and pipe tobacco are also subject to the tax increase. For e-cigarette liquids, the tax per milliliter will be raised from 0.38 euros in 2027 to 0.44 euros in 2030.

The figures for the liquid shown here are tax amounts, not selling prices.

Even if cigarette prices are increased, if users simply switch to cheaper alternatives, it does not necessarily lead to a reduction in smoking or nicotine use. The overall design of the system, including the extent of taxation on each product, is questioned.

It should be noted that in Germany, e-cigarettes refer to products that heat liquid for inhalation. They should not be equated with the heated tobacco products using tobacco leaves widely used in Japan.

Tax increases to protect health and support finances

The German government and ruling parties cite the need to reduce diseases associated with smoking, the burden on the healthcare system, and smoking rates among young people and adults as reasons for the tax increase.

The idea of reducing consumption through pricing has a public health basis. The World Health Organization (WHO) positions raising tobacco taxes as an effective policy for suppressing consumption, also mentioning its effects on young people and low-income groups.

However, price increases do not bring the same change to everyone. Some people quit smoking, some reduce the number of cigarettes, and some continue to smoke while increasing their spending.

What becomes important here is the combination of "a reason to quit" and "support to continue quitting." Simply raising prices does not automatically enable those struggling with addiction to quit smoking. An environment that facilitates access to counseling and treatment can more easily connect financial pressure to health improvement.

On the other hand, according to the original article, the German side expects an additional tax revenue of approximately 11.8 billion euros over the next few years.

While wanting to reduce consumption, there is also a need to secure tax revenue from consumption. These two can coexist in the short term, but if smoking significantly decreases in the long term, the premise as a financial resource also changes. The success of the policy cannot be measured solely by whether tax revenue has increased.

Industry wary of "moving to cheaper places"

The tobacco industry strongly emphasizes the change in purchasing destinations due to price increases.

In the original article, Jan Mücke of the German industry association BVTE warns that a significant tax rate increase will boost illegal tobacco trade and purchases in neighboring countries with lower prices. The industry argues that this could result in the government's expected additional tax revenue not being realized.

However, this is the industry's prediction, and it has not been confirmed that such a scale of tax revenue shortfall will necessarily occur due to the tax increase.

Moreover, legal purchases in neighboring countries and smuggling or illegal sales are not the same. While both can affect domestic legitimate sales, they need to be considered separately in terms of the system.

The ruling parties are also aware of the risks of expanding the black market, illegal manufacturing, and untaxed sales from overseas. According to the original article, they are seeking to strengthen customs enforcement and adjust tobacco taxation at the European level.

Thus, the effectiveness of the tax increase is not determined solely by the tax rate. It is also crucial to enforce taxation appropriately and respond to price differences with neighboring countries.

On social media, voices say "it's already 10 euros" and "the number of cigarettes might decrease"

On social media, posts focus not only on the policy's principles but also on discrepancies with everyday shopping.

In the German-language community on Reddit, dealing with the coalition agreement before the vote, there was a post questioning whether the numbers match, as the box they buy is already about 10 euros.

In response, there was a reply speculating that even if the price remains 10 euros, the number of cigarettes inside might decrease. This is not a confirmed manufacturer policy but the poster's perspective.

Such exchanges highlight the difference between consumers feeling the burden of "the price of one pack" and the policy explanation using "average price per 20 cigarettes." Naturally, if the brand and number of cigarettes differ, the average and one's payment amount won't match.

Therefore, when comparing prices, it's necessary to look at the price per cigarette, not just the box price.

It should be noted that the posts introduced here are a part of the reactions to related reports before the vote and do not represent the reactions or opinions of the entire German population after the vote. From social media posts, one cannot conclude that "the majority supports the tax increase" or "opposition is spreading."

Tax increase in Japan from 2027—reasons why it can't be compared by amount alone

For Japan, too, the gradual increase in tobacco tax is not a distant issue.

According to the Ministry of Finance's materials, the national tobacco tax rate will be increased by 0.5 yen per cigarette in April 2027, April 2028, and April 2029.

For a pack of 20, this corresponds to a national tax increase of 10 yen at each stage, totaling 30 yen over three stages. However, this is a tax calculation and does not mean that the retail price will necessarily rise by the same amount.

Additionally, it is not possible to directly compare Germany's "average retail price is expected to rise by 3.73 euros" with Japan's "national tax increases by a total of 30 yen per 20 cigarettes" as they are measured on different scales. The former is a price outlook, while the latter is a tax rate change.

Japan's measure is positioned in the context of securing financial resources for strengthening defense capabilities. In Germany, health protection and fiscal reconstruction are emphasized, with differences in policy objectives and systems.

Nevertheless, there are common questions: How will the increased burden be explained? What will the tax revenue be used for? If smoking is to be reduced, how much effort will be put into smoking cessation support?

What to look for is the change beyond the price tag

Germany's recent decision is a significant change directly affecting daily shopping. However, the outcome cannot be determined solely by the average price in 2030.

Has the rate of young people starting to smoke decreased? Have those who want to quit actually been able to do so? How has the financial burden on those who continue to smoke changed? Has the reduction in the legitimate market led to a shift to the illegal market rather than a decrease in smoking?

Only by examining these points together can the effects of the tax increase on health and society be understood.

The price tag of a pack of cigarettes is also a point of contact between taxes and life. The outlook of about 12 euros in Germany may also prompt Japan to consider not only "how much to raise" but also "what to achieve by raising it."

Sources and References

1. BUSINESS-PANORAMA/AFP: Outlook for the gradual increase in average prices, expected additional tax revenue, industry concerns, and targeted products.
   https://business-panorama.de/news.php?newsid=6714898

2. German Bundestag: Official materials confirming the approval and deliberation process on October 15, 2026. The page includes figures from the initial government proposal, distinguished from the revised price outlook.
   https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2026/kw42-de-tabaksteuer-1224154bundestag.de

3. WHO "Tobacco and nicotine": Explanation of the health impacts of tobacco and consumption suppression through tax increases.
   https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobaccowho.int

4. Reddit・r/de: Summary of posts and comments regarding the coalition agreement before the vote, including doubts about purchase prices and reactions to the possibility of reduced content. Not a public opinion survey.
   https://www.reddit.com/r/de/comments/1x1eysd/union_gibt_widerstand_auf_bericht_koalition/reddit.com

5. Ministry of Finance "Materials on Tobacco Tax, etc.": Regarding Japan's gradual increase in the national tobacco tax rate from 2027 to 2029.
   https://www.mof.go.jp/tax_policy/summary/consumption/d09.htmmof.go.jp

6. Ministry of Finance "Outline of Tax Reform for FY2025": Review of tobacco tax as a means to secure financial resources for strengthening defense capabilities and its implementation schedule.
   https://www.mof.go.jp/tax_policy/tax_reform/outline/fy2025/07taikou_06.htm