Beyond the Flames of War into the Future: Hope at 61%, Concerns about Division at 34% — Two Realities Reflected in Ukrainian Public Opinion

"Life After the Conflict" That Can't Be Seen from War News

In news about war, the movements on the front lines, the damage from attacks, and the progress of diplomatic negotiations are prominently featured. However, the people living there are envisioning more than just tomorrow's safety. They are also thinking about what their country will be like in ten years, a much more distant future.

A public opinion poll introduced by the German news site "tz" on October 30, 2026, conveys this forward-looking perspective.

According to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), 61% of respondents believed that Ukraine would become a prosperous member of the European Union (EU) in ten years. In contrast, 27% thought the country would become economically devastated, with many people leaving for abroad. The remaining 12% did not express a judgment.

The prolonged war could deprive people of the leeway to think about the future. Nonetheless, in this survey, the majority chose a bright future.

However, this result cannot be read as "the people are no longer worried." A closer look at the numbers reveals that expectations for the future and concerns about the current society coexist.

"61%" Is Not the Probability of EU Membership

The first point to note is that this survey measures people's expectations, not the probability of achieving EU membership.

The statement "61% answered that it would become a prosperous EU member" is entirely different from "there is a 61% chance of that happening." Moreover, EU membership and economic growth in ten years are not guaranteed.

Attention should also be paid to the format of the questions. The survey presented a future image of becoming a prosperous EU member and an image of economic devastation with population outflow, asking for responses.

In reality, there are many possibilities in between. Economic reconstruction may progress, but the membership process could take time, or there could be differences in recovery between the overall country and specific regions.

Therefore, the figure of 61% should be understood as the proportion of people who chose the brighter side of the two directions presented, rather than agreement with detailed future predictions.

Still, the fact that the majority chose that side during a long war is significant. It shows that many people believe that current difficulties do not determine the entire future of the country.

It's Not So Much an Increase in Hope as It Is "Not Crumbling"

According to the original article, the outlook for the future has not changed significantly since December 2025. There was no noticeable change compared to the survey conducted in July-August just before.

Here, the difference in survey timing is noteworthy.

The summer survey was conducted during a period of warm weather without major power outages. In contrast, the October survey was conducted amid intensified attacks by Russia and increased pressure on Ukraine.

In other words, the current result is not news of a sudden spread of optimism. It is news that expectations for the future did not significantly crumble even as the situation worsened.

Of course, even if the same proportion is maintained, it does not mean that each individual's feelings have not changed. Some people's expectations may have weakened, while others may have regained hope. What opinion polls show is the outline of the entire society, including such individual changes.

59% Believe in Social Cohesion, 34% Worry About Division

The survey also asked about the current social cohesion, not just the future of the country.

59% of respondents believed that Ukrainians are gradually overcoming internal conflicts and moving towards a cohesive political community. On the other hand, 34% answered that conflicts are deepening and moving towards division.

The majority are looking towards cohesion. However, it should not be overlooked that about one in three people are concerned about division.

In the midst of war, even among those who want to protect the same country, opinions can differ on policies, the distribution of burdens, and the desirable way to end the war. Cohesion does not mean that everyone has the same opinion.

From these numbers, we can see a society where many people believe in the cohesion of the community, yet do not take that cohesion for granted.

The original article also mentions that the evaluation of cohesion slightly worsened compared to September-October 2025. Even if hope for the future is maintained, the evaluation of the current society is not necessarily stable.

Do Not Mistake Young People's Anxiety for "Lack of Hope"

The generational differences are particularly striking.

41% of those aged 18-29 were concerned about social division, compared to 24% of those aged 60 and over. The younger generation is more acutely aware of societal fractures.

However, this does not mean that "young people have given up on their country's future." The questions "Is society currently moving towards division?" and "Will the country be prosperous in ten years?" are separate.

It is possible to critically view societal issues while believing in long-term improvement. Rather, because it is a country where they will live for a long time, they may be more sensitive to internal conflicts.

Education, employment, where to live, and family formation. For the younger generation, the future of the country is likely to overlap with their life plans. However, the survey has not proven that these are the causes of the generational differences observed.

There are also gender differences, and the original article notes that women tend to choose a more positive future outlook than men. Again, numbers alone cannot explain the reasons for these differences. Further investigation into the background is needed, rather than attributing the results to differences in personality or temperament.

Expectations for the Future Are Also Linked to How Peace Conditions Are Perceived

The outlook for the future was also related to how long people thought they could endure the war.

Among those optimistic about the future, 70% expressed an intention to endure the war "as long as necessary." Among pessimistic people, it was 46%.

Additionally, regarding a proposal for the Ukrainian military to withdraw from Donetsk in exchange for security guarantees, 27% of the optimistic group and 53% of the pessimistic group said they would accept it.

This difference suggests that what people expect for the future is an important background when evaluating current burdens and compromises.

However, it has not been confirmed that there is a causal relationship such as "because they are optimistic, they support resistance." Conversely, it is possible that those who believe that continuing resistance will protect the future are choosing an optimistic future outlook. Other factors may be involved in both.

Also, the response to this withdrawal proposal is not an approval or disapproval of all peace proposals. It is an evaluation of a proposal with specific conditions.

Interpreting it as "those who oppose the withdrawal proposal do not want peace" or "those who accept it are not thinking about the country's future" would overlook the difficulty of the judgments respondents face.

In Related SNS Discussions, Voices Separate Supportive Feelings from Outlooks

Regarding SNS posts that directly responded to this survey, sufficient materials to confirm the content were not obtained. Therefore, related discussions previously published are introduced here. None of these are the latest reactions to the current results, and the nationality or residence of the posters cannot be confirmed.

In a discussion on Reddit in December 2024 about European support for Ukraine, there was a comment suggesting that being pessimistic about the outlook for the war is not because they do not support Ukraine, but because they have concerns about Western leaders.

This opinion indicates that "whether one wants to support" and "whether one expects a good outcome" are separate issues. Even if one wishes for a country's future, there may be concerns about the continuity of diplomacy and support.

Additionally, in another Reddit discussion in May 2023 about Ukraine's economy and EU membership, there was a comment suggesting that assuming EU membership within two years is overly optimistic.

This is different from the "ten years later" question in this survey. Still, it serves as a reference point for considering the desire for membership separately from the time estimate required for its realization.

Such posts do not represent the opinions of the entire society. On SNS, participants gather voluntarily, and strong opinions tend to stand out. It is important to avoid negating the figures from opinion polls with a few comments on SNS or reinforcing them by gathering only convenient posts.

There Are People Not Included in This Survey

To understand this survey, the scope of the subjects is essential.

KIIS conducted a telephone survey from October 8-16, 2026, targeting 1,031 people aged 18 and over living in areas governed by the Ukrainian government. Internally displaced persons were included.

On the other hand, people living in occupied areas and those who fled abroad after February 24, 2022, were not included.

Therefore, this survey cannot be regarded as representing the opinions of all Ukrainians living around the world. It does not reveal how those living abroad view returning or how those under occupation see the future.

The statistical error is said to be a maximum of about 4 points when the response rate is around 50%. Additionally, during wartime, biases different from normal sampling errors can occur, as explained by the institute itself.

Therefore, while this survey is valuable, it cannot single-handedly speak for all the emotions of the country. It is necessary to look at both the places where the numbers reached and those where they did not.

What We Want to Consider from Japan Is Not to Demand "Have Hope"

When reading these results from Japan, many may be surprised by the resilience, thinking, "They are so positive despite the hardships." However, ending with that impression alone would overlook the burdens of life behind the hope.

The fact that many people believe in the future does not mean that support is no longer needed. Nor does it provide grounds to evaluate those who gave pessimistic answers as weak-willed.

A safe place to sleep, an environment where one can continue learning, a place to work, and necessary medical care. To connect hope to reality, the conditions of daily life are indispensable. When considering the country's reconstruction, it is necessary to regain a state where people can plan for the future, along with buildings and roads.

What is impressive about this survey is that people are thinking about the country's image not only at the end of the war but also beyond that.

At the same time, there are those who cannot believe in that future and young people who are concerned about social division. Both are voices that make up the same society.

The figure of 61% is not a promise of a bright future. It is a record that, even amid harsh circumstances, there are still people envisioning a different future. To understand that hope, it is necessary to also listen to the anxieties beside it.

Source

1. tz: Article dated October 30, 2026. Referenced survey results, generational differences, attitudes towards peace conditions, and survey subjects.
   https://www.tz.de/politik/trotz-krieg-und-krisen-an-dieser-hoffnung-halten-die-ukrainer-fest-zr-94566133.html

2. Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS): Published materials of the survey conducted from October 8-16, 2026. Verified question formats regarding future images and social cohesion, survey subjects, and methods with publicly available content.
   https://www.kiis.com.ua/?cat=reports&id=1647&lang=engkiis.com.ua

3. Reddit/r/europe: Discussion in December 2024 regarding European support for Ukraine. Referenced comments distinguishing support from pessimism about the war outlook. Not a reaction to the current survey, but past post content verified through search.
   https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1hmkeba/reddit.com

4. Reddit/r/YUROP: Discussion in May 2023 regarding Ukraine's economy and EU membership. Referenced comments cautious about short-term membership. Not a reaction to the current survey, but past post content verified through search.
   https://www.reddit.com/r/YUROP/comments/13n201u/