The United States Urges ASEAN to Take a Firm Stance on the South China Sea Issue: What Are the New Developments in U.S.-China Relations?

Lead: The Gap Between Strong Words and "Best Relationship Ever"

On November 1 (local time), at the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth urged ASEAN to strengthen maritime capabilities and adopt a resolute stance to counter China's "destabilizing" actions in the South China Sea. He also proposed providing "tools" for shared maritime domain awareness and joint response, encouraging regional unity.military.com

However, a few hours later, Hegseth posted on X (formerly Twitter) that "U.S.-China relations are better than ever," and they agreed to rebuild direct military communication channels. This "double-talk," where a speech warning of tension runs parallel to a social media post emphasizing a conciliatory mood, reflects the complexity of current U.S.-China relations and regional security.AP News

Background: The South China Sea Tensions Persist

In the South China Sea, China claims extensive rights over vast maritime areas and features, overlapping with ASEAN countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. In recent years, reports of water cannon use, ramming, and obstruction have surfaced, with the Scarborough Shoal area being a particular flashpoint. AP reports that the U.S. criticized China's extensive claims as contrary to international agreements and highlighted the strengthening of ASEAN-U.S. maritime exercises and a "shared surveillance network."military.com

In the summer of 2025, a collision between Chinese public vessels and naval ships in the same area drew attention, maintaining high tensions. These events indicate that the "geopolitics of the sea," where freedom of navigation, resource development, and domestic politics intertwine, is becoming increasingly unstable.Wikipedia

Simultaneous "Deterrence" and "Dialogue": The Realistic U.S.-China Deal

The key point this time is that two seemingly contradictory yet complementary moves were announced in the same week: (1) a call to strengthen deterrence against China, and (2) the revival and expansion of direct military communication channels (hotlines) between the U.S. and China. Reuters and CNA report that Hegseth met with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun in Kuala Lumpur, asserting that "the U.S. will firmly protect its interests" while agreeing on the establishment of crisis management communication channels.Reuters

This "two-front strategy" is a realistic approach to bolster the backbone of regional allies and quasi-allies (especially the Philippines) while avoiding escalation from accidental collisions. In fact, the U.S. and the Philippines have established "Task Force Philippines" for integrated operations, including the South China Sea, to enhance deterrence effectiveness.Reuters

ASEAN's Dilemma: Between Economy and Security

For ASEAN, China is one of the largest trading partners, and the region's political culture values the tradition of "non-alignment and balance." On the other hand, countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia are vulnerable to infringements on their national interests, and domestic public opinion demanding action is strong. While the U.S. call is reasonable, the economic, security, and domestic political costs are significant for countries to unite in a "hardline stance against China." Hegseth's proposal to share "maritime domain awareness (MDA)" and utilize unmanned areas to reduce the burden is precisely based on this reality.timesofindia.indiatimes.com

China's Perspective and Information Warfare

After the meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, the Chinese side demanded "cautious behavior regarding Taiwan" from the U.S. and criticized U.S. "intervention." Chinese state and semi-official media highlighted the "contradiction" between Hegseth's X post ("Best Relationship Ever") and his hardline remarks at the meeting, arguing that the U.S. is destabilizing the region.Global Times

Additionally, official accounts such as the Chinese embassy issued statements on the meeting's facts while warning against joint patrols by the U.S. and the Philippines and the involvement of external countries. In the information environment, "who speaks first" influences impressions, making each party's SNS operations part of security itself.X (formerly Twitter)

SNS Reactions: The Intersection of Three "Voices"

Online reactions to this development are broadly divided into three layers.

1. Voices Welcoming Strengthened Deterrence
   Particularly in Philippine-related communities, there is a notable trend of evaluating the U.S. combination of "shared surveillance, joint training, and new task force" (as seen in comment sections of various media reports). However, there is also a strong cautious view that "over-reliance will lead to a loss of autonomy." (Trend analysis)

2. Voices Calling for ASEAN's "Realistic Approach"
   Pragmatic arguments such as "hardline against China will backfire economically" and "a legally binding Code of Conduct should be prioritized." AP and CNA conveyed the view that, alongside the reconstruction of the U.S.-China hotline, creating a cooperative framework on the ASEAN side is urgent.AP News

3. Chinese Opposition/Criticism of "Double-Talk"
   In state-affiliated media and related SNS, criticism that "the U.S. is simultaneously intimidating and staging reconciliation" is spreading. The "Best Relationship Ever" remark by Hegseth is cited, with a prominent narrative pointing out U.S. "inconsistency."Global Times

Reference Official Announcements (SNS)

• Hegseth's X post ("U.S.-China relations are better than ever").X (formerly Twitter)

• Post by the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines on X (announcement of the U.S.-China meeting at the ASEAN conference).X (formerly Twitter)

• Facebook post related to Xinhua (criticizing "joint patrols" by the Philippines and external countries).facebook.com

Practical Changes: What Will Work, When, and How

• Reconstruction of Communication Channels (Immediate to Short Term): Serves as a means to prevent accidents as a fire extinguisher for incidental incidents. Especially in the South China Sea, where contact is frequent, the effect of "stopping escalation with a single call" is expected.AP News

• Strengthening MDA (Short to Medium Term): Integration of satellites, AIS, and drones to visualize "invisible ships." Deterrence begins with "being visible."timesofindia.indiatimes.com

• U.S.-Philippines Task Force (Medium Term): Accelerates joint planning, training, and readiness systems, lowering the "critical point" of collisions.Reuters

• Exercises and Code of Conduct (Medium to Long Term): Cooperative training from the end of the year onwards and the long-standing issue of the Code of Conduct (COC) will create a minimum line of effective order.military.com

Outlook: Three Points of Interest Toward 2026

1. Development of "Deterrence Steps": Will the procedures of monitoring → warning → separation → communication function steadily?

2. Divergence Within ASEAN: How will the distance between the "rights-asserting group" of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, and the cautious group change?

3. "Managed Competition" Between the U.S. and China: Will dialogue channels remain active during crises, or will elections and domestic politics disrupt them again?Reuters