The United Nations Warns! The Risk of Nuclear War Enters "Danger Zone": Reasons Why Nuclear Risk Has Reached an "Abnormally High Level"

Lead: The Source of the Alarm

"The risk of nuclear war is already alarmingly high"—these words from Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq at the United Nations headquarters in New York are not mere rhetoric. In response to reports that the U.S. administration has instructed the Department of Defense to resume nuclear testing, the UN emphasized the need to avoid actions that could lead to miscalculations or escalation. The CTBTO, which advocates for a complete halt to nuclear testing, also strongly warned that any explosive nuclear test by any country would undermine the nuclear non-proliferation regime and international peace and security.Reuters

Background: Numbers Speak of a "Rearmament Era"

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates that as of January 2025, there are approximately 12,241 nuclear warheads worldwide. Of these, 9,614 are in military stockpiles, 3,912 are deployed, and about 2,100 are on high alert. The U.S. and Russia account for about 90% of the total, but China is accelerating its deployment and infrastructure development, clearly reversing disarmament trends.SIPRI

Furthermore, the "Doomsday Clock" indicated "89 seconds to midnight" in January 2025, the shortest in history. The analysis suggests that nuclear, climate, and biological risks are compounding, with misinformation and the militarization of AI amplifying the crisis.Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

What Triggers "Criticality"?

• Collapse of the Nuclear Test Moratorium: Resuming tests could trigger a domino effect, prompting other countries to follow suit and undermining the foundation of verification and trust. While emphasizing the readiness of its monitoring network, the CTBTO expresses concern over the deterioration of political signals.ctbto.org

• Erosion of Arms Control: Post-Cold War disarmament agreements have successively expired or stalled. SIPRI points to a transition to a "new era of nuclear arms race."SIPRI

• Simultaneous Regional Crises: Strategic maneuvering involving nuclear-armed countries/allies in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific increases the probability of accidents and misinterpretations. The Doomsday Clock assessment shares this view.Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

SNS Reaction Map (Summary)

Based on posts from national media and international organizations, prominent online points of discussion were summarized (not quoting real names, but summarizing representative trends).

• "Regression" Frame:"Nuclear testing rolls back the clock 80 years" "Don't undermine the CTBT"—CTBTO statements and news posts served as the starting point for dissemination.ctbto.org

• Deterrence Advocates:"Testing is necessary to maintain deterrence" "If the opponent advances, so should we"—Citing SIPRI figures, voices argue for "balance of power."SIPRI

• Fact-Checking:"‘Small-scale is not a problem’ is incorrect" "Verification systems can detect immediately"—Explanations introducing CTBTO's monitoring capabilities spread.ctbto.org

• Domestic Politicization:"Election pledges directly linked to security" "Will Congress act as a check?"—Fragments of reports and government briefings are taken out of context, sparking debate. The UN briefing's mention of "the risk is already high" is quoted.Reuters

*The InfoMoney distribution that served as the starting point was shared on the company's SNS, becoming an entry point for discussion.infomoney.com.br

Expert Perspective: Three Realities Changed by Testing

1. Updating of Technical Thresholds: Demonstrating new warhead designs and hypersonic projectiles creates mutual "pressure to follow."

2. Increased Difficulty in Crisis Management: Signals from exercises, tests, and deployments become entangled, increasing the likelihood of misreading intentions. The Doomsday Clock lists the interaction of AI and misinformation as risk amplifiers.Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

3. Acceleration of System Fatigue: The decline in verification frameworks and transparency expands uncertainty among citizens and markets (e.g., increased risk premiums in energy, insurance, and supply chains).

Future Turning Points: Policy and Diplomatic "Moves"

• Reaffirmation of the Moratorium: Countries should restate their temporary halt on nuclear testing and increase political investment towards the entry into force of the legally binding CTBT (a joint declaration calling for signature and ratification by non-signatory countries was adopted at the ministerial meeting in September 2025).mofa.go.jp

• Normalization of Hotlines: Regular checks, including exercises, of direct lines between strategic military and foreign affairs authorities.

• Minimum Standards of Transparency: Gradual expansion of the disclosure and verification of nuclear force data presented by SIPRI and others.SIPRI

• Utilization of Monitoring Systems: Treating CTBTO's International Monitoring System (IMS) data as a "shared asset" during crises, with a pre-agreed timeline for detection → notification → accountability.ctbto.org

Q&A: Answering Simple Questions

Q1. Does a single nuclear test immediately lead to an arms race?
A. It does not immediately lead to an explosive increase in numbers, but the demonstration of technology creates "pressure to follow" and a "normalization" in the market and public opinion, lowering the political decision-making threshold, which is dangerous. The CTBTO states that it is "harmful in any country."ctbto.org

Q2. How many nuclear weapons are there in the world now?
A. As of January 2025, it is estimated at 12,241, with 3,912 deployed and about 2,100 on high alert. The reduction pace has slowed, and there is a net increase trend in some areas in recent years.SIPRI

Q3. What is the UN asking for?
A. On the premise that "the danger is already high," the UN is calling for the avoidance of actions that could lead to miscalculations and escalation, the restraint of test resumption, and the reactivation of disarmament and non-proliferation.Reuters

Editor's Note: Inside the 89 Seconds

"The crisis is not about to escalate," but "already high"—this recognition is the starting point for policy and public opinion. What is being tested is not technology, but the political strength to restore restraint and dialogue.Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

References and Sources (Main)

• InfoMoney Distribution (UN Concerns Report)infomoney.com.br

• UN Deputy Spokesperson's "Already Alarmingly High" Statement (Reuters Report)Reuters

• CTBTO Executive Secretary Floyd's Statement (October 30, 2025)ctbto.org

• SIPRI Yearbook 2025 (Latest Nuclear Force Estimates)SIPRI

• Doomsday Clock 2025 "89 Seconds" Statement (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

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