Deterrence or Spark: Where Are U.S.-China Relations Headed with the $11.1 Billion Arms Sale to Taiwan?

On December 18, 2025, the United States approved a total of approximately $11.1 billion (across 8 deals) in arms sales to Taiwan, and the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notified Congress. This marks the largest package ever for Taiwan, and reports indicate it is the second major deal under the Trump administration.

The Taiwanese side emphasized "rapid deterrence building" and "asymmetric warfare," while China strongly opposed it. The information space was abuzz with both support and criticism.

1) Breakdown of the $11.1 billion: Understanding the 8 deals by "function"

The announcement is not a single contract but a "possible sale" encompassing multiple deals, with future focus on congressional review and Taiwan's budget and contract procedures.

Long-range strike and mobile firepower: HIMARS + ATACMS (estimated $4.05 billion)

According to DSCA materials, it includes 82 HIMARS (M142) and 420 ATACMS (M57) missiles, among others.
Mobile firepower that can "move, fire, and withdraw" enhances survivability in geographically narrow Taiwan. The concept is to impose "high costs" on the invading side's concentration, landing support, and beachhead formation.

Backbone of ground warfare: M109A7 self-propelled howitzers (estimated $4.03 billion)

Includes 60 M109A7s, 60 ammunition carriers (M992A3), 13 recovery vehicles (M88A2), and 4,080 precision guidance kits (PGK).
While not flashy, it influences "sustained combat capability" in scenarios where prolonged warfare or supply lines are strained.

Shortening reconnaissance to attack: ALTIUS-700M/600 (estimated $1.1 billion)

A configuration that integrates loitering munitions (700M) and ISR (600), with elements like infrared seekers and "resilient communication" also specified.
It exploits "gaps" during the landing phase, a hallmark of "asymmetric warfare."

Bundling weapons: Tactical Mission Network (estimated $1.01 billion)

Includes unmanned aerial systems, commercial software, communication equipment, hosted/managed services, cloud and security support, among others.
In modern warfare, the speed of "finding, sharing, and shooting" determines victory. Network investment lays the foundation for operating HIMARS and drones not as "points" but as "areas."

Stopping at close range: Anti-tank missiles (total approximately $728 million)

• Javelin: 1,050 FGM-148F missiles, 70 LwCLU units, etc. (estimated $375 million)

• TOW: 1,545 TOW 2B missiles, etc. (estimated $353 million)

Buying "operational readiness": Harpoon repair support + AH-1W parts (total approximately $187 million)

• Harpoon recovery, repair, and re-shipment (RRR), radar seekers, etc. ($91.4 million)

• AH-1W spare/repair parts ($96 million)
  Maintenance support doesn't make headlines but determines "basic combat readiness" during emergencies.

The list of 8 bundled deals is also organized by the USTBC (U.S.-Taiwan Business Council) as totaling approximately $11.1054 billion.

2) Why this scale now: Accelerating deterrence and "asymmetric warfare"

Rocket artillery, loitering munitions, anti-tank firepower, networking—. The lineup consistently leans towards being "small, mobile, dispersed, and accurate." It indicates that Taiwan is steering towards a deterrence design that "makes invasion hesitant."

The Taiwanese administration under Lai Ching-te has reportedly proposed a special defense budget of approximately $40 billion for 2026-2033, aiming to expedite procurement.
However, legislative procedures are also necessary on the Taiwanese side, and political schedules will influence the pace.

3) "Approval ≠ Delivery": Congressional review, contracts, and production lines

This notification is not a "completed purchase" but progresses through U.S. congressional review (reports mention a 30-day review period).
The Taiwanese side also needs to follow the order of budget approval, contracts, and production/delivery. In fact, skepticism such as "won't expect until delivered" was prominent on social media.

Underlying this is distrust in recent production capacity and supply chain constraints. As much as this package is a "statement of intent" for deterrence, the next focus will be "when it arrives."

4) China's backlash: Strong words, cold calculations

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly opposed the arms sale, stating it undermines stability in the Taiwan Strait and aids "Taiwan independence." Reuters reported statements to the effect that "helping Taiwan independence with weapons only invites fire for the U.S. itself."

While the backlash is "routine," the unprecedented scale means friction costs will rise not only in military but also in diplomatic terms.

5) Reactions on social media: Different interpretations of the same $11.1 billion

Three main points stood out on social media (the following are examples of public posts from Taiwan-related threads on Reddit and do not represent overall public opinion).

1. Strengthening deterrence and rational procurement
   There was an evaluation that increasing categories with proven track records in Ukraine (rocket artillery, anti-tank, drones) makes sense.

2. The "announcement vs. delivery" issue

   Voices like "Won’t hold my breath until delivery"
   symbolize the shift in focus to procedures, delivery times, and backlogs.

3. Backlash against the military-industrial complex and transactional nature

   Criticism such as "The US military industrial complex..."
   and dissatisfaction viewing it as "protection money" emerged, while counter-posts argued that "Taiwan pays according to delivery, not upfront," leading to debates.

Additionally, Chinese media reported articles claiming "Taiwanese netizens criticized the authorities' 'expression of gratitude,'" but it's important to be aware of potential framing aligned with political stances.

6) Points of interest moving forward: Four "next milestones"

1. How the U.S. congressional review progresses(whether objections arise, or conditions are attached)

2. Whether Taiwan's special defense budget passes(tug-of-war between ruling and opposition parties)

3. Actual contract, production, and delivery schedule(how much of a "deterrence gap" remains)

4. Diplomatic temperature between the U.S. and China(market fluctuations with each observation of key personnel exchanges and meetings)
   
   
   

Summary: The "box" of deterrence has increased. Next is "whether it passes," "whether it arrives," and "whether it can be used."

$11.1 billion is significant. However, the essence lies not in the amount but in "how quickly the toolbox for asymmetric warfare can be operationalized." As politics, production, and public opinion move simultaneously, the focus of the news shifts from "approval" to "implementation."