Does "Making Them Wait" Beat "Releasing All at Once"? The Optimal Release Pace for Boosting Subscriptions — How "The Next Episode" Mechanism Impacts Subscriptions

Introduction: The Delivery Pace is the "Content" Itself

Even with the same work, the pace at which it is shown can change user behavior. New research indicates that phased releases, such as weekly ones, strengthen the cycle of "search → discovery → continuation," ultimately benefiting the subscription economy. The findings were published on Phys.org (September 8, 2025), and the paper is featured in Marketing Science.Phys.org

Research Design: Field Experiment with 60,000 Participants Over 5 Weeks and 4 Works

The research team collaborated with a major telecommunications company to randomly assign participants to either "phased release" or "batch release." The subjects were four works: 'Big Little Lies,' 'The Muppets,' 'The Young Pope,' and 'Unforgettable.' While controlling conditions, including weekly text notifications, they compared exploratory behavior, continued use, and subscription retention.Phys.org

Key Figures

• Phased release results in a 48% higher continued use

• Subscription retention rate is +1.7%

• However, the effect diminishes among those with a strong "binge-watching" preference
  Short-term and single-platform constraints are also noted.Phys.org

The same content is reiterated in CMU's press release, emphasizing the strategic implication that "phased release is effective especially for exclusive titles."Carnegie Mellon University Heinz College

Why "Phasing" Works: Breakdown of Behavioral Mechanisms

1. Promotion of Exploration: The "waiting time" for the next episode pushes users to search for and watch other works (the study confirmed an increase in search behavior).Phys.org

2. Increased Contact Frequency: The more frequently users visit, the more opportunities they have to encounter recommendations, expanding their viewing basket.Phys.org

3. Sustained Conversation: The "simultaneous experience" on SNS and communities lasts longer, amplifying the topic's popularity. Industry analysis also treats weekly or hybrid releases as indicators that extend "chatter."Observer

What Companies Are Trying Now: The Rise of Hybrids

Although the era began with Netflix's "batch drop," by the mid-2020s, a compromise of "several episodes at once → weekly" became widespread. Disney+ and Apple TV+ adopted the weekly model, while HBO maintained the traditional model. As seen with Peacock's switch to a batch release for the spinoff 'The Paper,' differentiation based on the attributes of the work is progressing.ObserverPuck

SNS Reactions: Enthusiasm and Dissatisfaction Both Determined by "Pace"

Discussions about delivery pace continue on SNS/communities before and after the research publication.

• Voices of the Weekly Supporters: "It's interesting because discussions and reflections continue," "I look forward to the weekly ritual." Comments appreciating the revival of "water cooler conversations" are prominent on Reddit.Reddit

• Voices of the Binge-Watchers: "Immersion in the work is the top priority," "Weekly releases are stressful due to the waiting." In Samba TV's survey thread, many moderate opinions suggest "it depends on the work."Reddit

• Dissatisfaction with Splits (Part 1/Part 2): The Daily Beast criticizes "season splits" for disrupting the rhythm of the story. Unlike weekly releases, "short-term split releases" tend to provoke backlash.The Daily Beast

Representative Voices (Excerpt from Reddit)
"Weekly releases maintain excitement and foster community. Binge-watching tends to end with consumption." Reddit

Overall, a division of roles emerges: **"Weekly releases add depth to conversation and reflection, while batch releases offer immersion and immediate satisfaction."** This aligns with the study's finding of "heterogeneous effects based on preferences (less effective for those with strong binge-watching preferences)."Phys.org

Management Perspective: Translating into KPIs and P/L

• Building Up LTV: Even a 1.7% improvement in retention rate can contribute billions of yen annually for platforms with a large ARPU × base (considering suppression of churn and floaters).Phys.org

• Visualizing the Value of Exploration: Increased searches and navigation with weekly releases ripple into "reaching original content" and "consuming long-tail titles." Industry statistics show title supply is saturated, highlighting the importance of exploration.Exploding Topics

• Optimizing Delivery Pace Segmentation:

  • High-Intensity Franchises: Several episodes at once initially → weekly (maximize initial acquisition while maintaining community enthusiasm).

  • Mystery/Analytical Genre: Pure weekly (promote analysis and virality).

  • Sitcoms/Light Dramas: Batch (immediate spread of satisfaction and word-of-mouth).

  • Limited Series: A/B testing of pace by country and language.

Insights for Content Creation: Script, Editing, and Notifications as "Delivery Design"

• Cliffhanger Design: Editing that strengthens the "hook for the next week" assuming weekly releases.

• Notifications, Summaries, Recaps: Touchpoints that fill the "gap" of weekly releases (notifications were a control variable in the study's experiment).Phys.org

• Eventization: Maximize SNS simultaneous experience with simultaneous release or live after-show for the final episode.Observer

Limitations of the Study and Future Questions

The study's results are within the framework of 5 weeks and a single platform. Behavior may vary by genre, country/language, and ad-supported plans (AVOD). Future experiments should include the optimal points for hybrids and split releases, ad inventory consumption, and interactions within bundles.Phys.org

Conclusion: Pace as a Lever for KPIs

The simplistic premise that "making a good work will lead to success" can be further enhanced by designing the delivery pace. Phased releases amplify exploration and conversation, impacting the most crucial KPI, continuation. However, it is not a panacea. We have entered an era where the pace itself is A/B tested, considering the three points of **"work × viewer preferences × market context."**A/B testing the pace itself.

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