138 Ships to 1: Why the Hormuz Strait Crisis is Shaking Oil, Logistics, and Markets

The Shock of "One Ship a Day" in the Strait of Hormuz: An Open Yet Impassable Global Logistics Crisis

What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a "rise in tensions." The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a maritime security agency affiliated with the British Navy, has classified the navigation risk in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman as "critical," the highest level. Since March 1, at least 21 maritime incidents have been confirmed. Furthermore, in an update on the 20th, it was reported that while historically an average of 138 commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, only one ship was confirmed in the past 24 hours. Even just looking at the numbers, it is already a world apart from peacetime.

The important point here is that "complete closure" and "commercially non-functional state" are not the same. The Iranian side claims that the strait is open except for ships linked to hostile countries. Meanwhile, Reuters reports that no crude oil tankers were confirmed to have passed through in the past 24 hours, although there are cases where safe passage is individually arranged, such as for Indian-flagged LPG ships and vessels bound for Pakistan. In other words, the current Strait of Hormuz is more characterized by "selective passage" based on political, security, and individual negotiation conditions rather than an international commercial route.

Why is the world so nervous about this? The reason is simple: the Strait of Hormuz is the world's energy artery. According to the U.S. EIA, as of 2024, about 20 million barrels of oil pass through this strait daily, accounting for about 20% of the world's oil consumption. The IEA also states that about 25% of the world's maritime oil trade and about 19% of the world's LNG trade pass through this strait, with much of it bound for Asia. The anomaly in the Strait of Hormuz is not just a local Middle Eastern news story but a problem that directly impacts energy procurement costs in Asia, including Japan.

Moreover, the chaos does not end with the threat of missiles and drones. UKMTO warns of continued navigation interference, GNSS (satellite positioning) interference, and operational disruptions, including ports, in addition to recent attack patterns. For the crew on site, the fear is not only the danger of "possibly being shot" but also the complex uncertainties of "disrupted location information," "being unable to move at the port," and "possibly suspicious flying objects remaining." The strait has transformed from a line into a vast risk space that includes ports, anchorages, and approach waters.

Alternative routes are not all-powerful. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia is hastening to divert to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea side via the East-West pipeline, and the UAE is increasing exports by using the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline to near maximum capacity. However, the IEA states that the bypass capacity that can completely replace the Strait of Hormuz is limited to about 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day, insufficient to replace the massive flow through the strait entirely. In fact, the market has already reacted, with Reuters reporting that the Brent crude oil closing price on March 20 was $112.19 per barrel, the highest since July 2022, and in early morning trading on the 23rd, it remained in the $111 range, a more than 50% increase from the closing price on February 27.

The reactions on public social media also reflect the nature of this crisis well. On X, there is strong surprise at the sheer number of "138 ships to 1 ship." Public posts express disbelief at this disparity and comments from market participants viewing it as "effectively closed, regardless of legality." Even accounts tracking maritime data continue to point out that even on days when a few ships are confirmed to pass, it is an abnormally low level compared to peacetime. On social media, posts are more focused on the perception that "the world's economic plumbing is clogged" rather than military victories or defeats.

On the other hand, posts closer to the logistics and shipping practical side on platforms like LinkedIn are even more specific in their reactions. The focus is less on crude oil prices themselves and more on war insurance, demurrage, increased days due to detours, cost pass-through to shippers, and above all, crew safety. In fact, Reuters reported in early March that several marine insurance companies were moving to terminate war risk insurance around the Strait of Hormuz, and the on-site perception is closer to "commercially stopped due to the collapse of insurance and safety" rather than "closed by military means." The strongest message from the shipping industry's social media is that reality.

News surrounding the Strait of Hormuz crisis tends to be discussed in terms of a binary choice of "blockade or non-blockade." However, the reality is more complicated. It is not a complete blockade, yet it is not free navigation either. Some ships can pass, but the overall market flow stops. This is why this crisis is not only a military geopolitical issue but also a crisis of insurance, ports, fuel, and supply chains. What the world is witnessing now is the fact that when one strait stops, not only prices but the very "common sense of logistics" collapses.

*The SNS reactions are based on a partial observation of public posts and do not statistically represent the overall public opinion.

Source URL

InfoMoney / UKMTO Alert and "One Ship a Day" Report Basis
https://www.infomoney.com.br/mundo/ukmto-alerta-para-situacao-critica-em-ormuz-e-ve-transito-de-apenas-1-navio-por-dia/

UKMTO Published Material 1 (Threat Level as of March 18, 21 Incidents, Observation of 4 Ships/Day)
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-018---jmic-advisory-note-18-mar_final.pdf?rev=aa7a1db246e74b11af335953701f0abb

UKMTO Published Material 2 (As of March 20, "One Ship in the Past 24 Hours" and Comparison with 138 Ships/Day)
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-020---jmic-advisory-note-20-mar_final.pdf?rev=b9dcda38a0dd401792fc72fba3e6d15f

Reuters (Indian-flagged LPG Ships, Zero Crude Oil Tanker Passage, Individually Arranged Safe Passage)
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-gas-tankers-getting-ready-sail-through-hormuz-data-shows-2026-03-20/

Reuters (Saudi & UAE's Bypass Transport, Use of Alternative Pipelines)
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-oil-producers-scramble-bypass-hormuz-iran-locks-down-strait-2026-03-17/

Reuters (Crude Oil Price Increase, Brent Closing Price on March 20)
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-us-allies-look-boost-supply-unchoke-strait-hormuz-2026-03-20/

Reuters (Market Outlook as of March 23, Brent in the $111 Range, Supply Loss Concerns)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/crude-oils-catch-22-pricing-trump-taco-trade-makes-it-less-likely-2026-03-23/

Reuters (Iran's Claim of "Open Except for Enemy-Linked Ships")
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-hormuz-open-all-enemy-linked-ships-amid-us-threat-2026-03-22/

U.S. EIA (Basic Data on Oil Volume Passing Through the Strait of Hormuz)
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504

U.S. EIA (Basic Data on LNG Transactions Passing Through the Strait of Hormuz)
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65584

IEA (Proportion of Maritime Oil Trade and LNG Trade Passing Through the Strait of Hormuz, Alternative Pipeline Capacity)
https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz

Public SNS Reaction Reference 1 (Surprise at "138→1" on X)
https://x.com/__CJohnston__/status/2035765300386267547

Public SNS Reaction Reference 2 (Mention of "Effective Closure" and Price Increase on X)
https://x.com/PaulStewartII/status/2035044247875826165

Public SNS Reaction Reference 3 (Observation of Maritime Data on X)
https://x.com/MTSInsights/status/2031787471604732025

Public SNS Reaction Reference 4 (Discussion from Logistics, Insurance, and Demurrage Perspectives on LinkedIn)
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/maheep-singh-03806b13a_martimeindustry-straitofhuz-demurrage-activity-7434848753389342721-JrE2