Raptors Are Disappearing from South Africa's Skies: A 16-Year, 400,000 km Road Survey Reveals the Change

Looking up at the vast skies of South Africa, one would expect to see eagles and buzzards circling, secretary birds walking the grasslands in search of prey, and falcons migrating from distant continents. However, recent research indicates that these raptors are quietly but surely diminishing.

The focus of attention is a road survey conducted in central South Africa from 2009 to 2025. During the survey, researchers drove along set routes, counting raptors and large terrestrial birds, tracking changes in the observation rate per 100 km. The survey covered 18 species of raptors and 8 species of large terrestrial birds, totaling 26 species. The results were not encouraging. Thirteen of the 26 species, or half, showed statistically significant declines, while only three species showed an increase.

These numbers are concerning because raptors are inherently "prone to decline." Eagles, falcons, buzzards, and vultures require large territories and have slow reproductive rates. Their low population density makes them susceptible to environmental changes. Once a decline begins, recovery can take a long time. This current decline may not be a temporary fluctuation but a sign of deeper changes in the ecosystem.

The decline of the secretary bird is particularly symbolic. This bird, which walks the grasslands on long legs to catch snakes and small animals, is emblematic of Africa's open landscapes. With its distinctive black feathers extending from the back of its head, the secretary bird is a striking figure as it walks the ground despite being a raptor. However, research indicates that the secretary bird population in the survey area has decreased by 68% over 16 years. Despite being a species already of conservation concern, the situation may be worsening at the regional level.

The decline is not limited to the secretary bird. Significant declines were also observed in resident raptors such as the jackal buzzard, Verreaux's eagle, and the African eagle-owl. Migratory birds like the red-footed falcon, Amur falcon, and steppe buzzard also showed declines. For migratory birds, the problem is even more complex. If the environment deteriorates at any point along their migration route—breeding grounds, wintering areas, or stopover sites—the entire population can be affected. Conservation efforts in South Africa alone are insufficient; cross-border conservation is necessary.

What is driving raptors to the brink? Researchers suggest that multiple pressures, rather than a single cause, may be at play. The use of pesticides and rodenticides, illegal killings due to livestock damage, collisions with power lines, electrocution, wind farm collisions, climate change, and land use changes all pose risks. While these may seem like separate issues, for raptors, they accumulate in the same space as overlapping risks.

For example, raptors are at the top of the food chain. If pesticides or toxins enter their bodies through small animals or carcasses, even small amounts can have severe impacts. Power lines and wind farms, while important infrastructure for human society, can become invisible obstacles for birds in flight. Additionally, if climate change alters prey distribution or breeding seasons, it disrupts their life rhythms. The decline of raptors is not just about "fewer birds" but reflects how human activities are altering the entire landscape.

The key takeaway from this study is the clear demonstration of the value of long-term monitoring. Short-term observations make it difficult to determine whether population changes are temporary or long-term trends. However, by consistently gathering data over 16 years using the same methods, significant changes become apparent. The survey data was collected by Ronnelle Visagie, who has been involved with the Endangered Wildlife Trust's raptor program, covering a distance of approximately 400,000 km—nearly the distance from Earth to the Moon.

This "continuous survey" does not rely on flashy new technology. It involves driving along roads, recording visible birds, and repeating the process year after year. It is a painstaking, time-consuming, and patient endeavor. However, such accumulation of data is the most reliable means of detecting ecological changes early. Long-term data is essential to avoid situations where researchers realize "it's too late" to act.

On the other hand, this study also highlights the differences with citizen science data. In southern Africa, bird atlas projects where birdwatchers submit records play a crucial role. These are valuable for understanding distribution changes. However, when comparing the trends from road surveys and bird atlases, only about half matched. Some species appeared to be declining in road surveys but increasing in atlases.

This does not mean citizen science is meaningless. On the contrary, it shows that citizen science, which tracks distribution, and road surveys, which track population changes, have different strengths. For raptors living at low densities over wide areas, "whether they are present" and "how many are present" do not mean the same thing. Even if birds are still observed in many areas, the actual population may have significantly decreased. Conservation decisions require a combination of multiple survey methods.

This research is also being shared among conservationists and bird enthusiasts on social media. Publicly available searches reveal posts by The Conversation Africa, Phys.org, researchers, and conservation organizations emphasizing the pressures on South Africa's raptors and the decline of the secretary bird. On LinkedIn, comments appreciating the value of the research can be seen in response to researchers' posts. On Instagram, posts by the Endangered Wildlife Trust's raptor-related accounts report the widespread decline of South African raptors revealed by the 16-year road survey.

However, this topic is spreading more as a shared sense of crisis among researchers, conservation organizations, birdwatchers, and those concerned with environmental issues, rather than as a large-scale public uproar or emotional spread. The prominent reactions on social media are surprise at "why there is such a decline" and appreciation for "long-term surveys that would have missed it otherwise." Additionally, species with strong visual individuality and symbolism, like the secretary bird, are more likely to attract public interest. While ecological issues tend to be abstract, having a specific bird makes it easier for people to feel the crisis more personally.

There is some hope in this study. Increases were observed in the pied crow, Lanner falcon, and white-backed vulture. Notably, the white-backed vulture, considered critically endangered globally, appears to be increasing in the survey area. This suggests the need to carefully examine regional situations. Even if a species is in crisis across the continent, there may be signs of recovery in specific regions. Conversely, species not yet evaluated as "at risk" globally or regionally may be rapidly declining.

This point also relates to revising conservation lists. Official extinction risk assessments are important but take time. There can be delays before changes in field populations are reflected in lists. Long-term surveys like this one can serve as an early warning system to compensate for those delays. For species with confirmed declines of over 50%, re-evaluating protection status and implementing regional measures are urgent.

The decline of raptors affects the entire ecosystem. As predators, they regulate the numbers of small animals, and scavenger species help control the spread of pathogens. If raptors decline, the balance of prey animals changes, potentially impacting agriculture and public health. This is not just an issue for distant South African birds. It is a reminder of how much human society relies on nature's regulatory functions.

In the future, Africa is expected to see population growth and increased resource demand. Energy development, agricultural expansion, and infrastructure development are inevitable. However, how these are pursued can greatly affect raptors. Designing power lines to be bird-safe, carefully managing the location and operation of wind farms, reducing toxin use, and engaging in dialogue with farmers to dispel misconceptions about raptors are necessary measures to reconcile economic activity with biodiversity conservation.

Sharing research on social media also has significance. Academic papers and press releases are often hard to reach non-experts. However, if specific facts like "the secretary bird population decreased by 68% in 16 years" spread through short posts, photos, and comments, interest in conservation is more likely to rise. Of course, conservation cannot advance through social media alone. But without public interest, policies, funding, and regional cooperation are difficult to mobilize. Social media plays an indispensable role as a bridge between scientific data and public interest.

This study underscores the fact that changes in the sky reflect changes on the ground. When raptors decline, the backdrop includes farmland, power lines, wind turbines, climate, toxins, and human conflicts. Birds flying in the sky reflect the state of society on the ground. If raptors are gradually disappearing from South Africa's skies, it is a warning directed not only at nature but also at human society.

Sixteen years, approximately 400,000 km. The records accumulated by a single fieldworker have revealed that South Africa's raptors are now at the threshold of a crisis. What is needed next is not just to continue recording but to pinpoint where, what, and to what extent impacts are occurring for the declining species and to connect this to actual conservation measures.

Birds that were once commonly seen can become rare before we realize it. Conservation failures often progress in this way. The current study on South African raptors has quantified this quiet change. To prevent the shadows in the sky from becoming even fainter, what is needed now is a shift from the stage of "knowing" the crisis to "stopping" it.

Source URL

Phys.org: Used to verify main information in the text, such as the 2009-2025 road survey, decline in 13 of 26 species, over 42% of species declining by more than 50%, and SNS sharing numbers.
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-birds-prey-south-africa-years.html

EurekAlert!: Research release by the University of Cape Town Faculty of Science. Used to verify the 68% decline of the secretary bird, research subject species, researcher comments, paper title, and DOI.
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1119998

LinkedIn / Phys.org Post: Used as a reference for the spread on SNS. Verified that the research summary is shared on LinkedIn.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/phys-org_long-term-road-surveys-reveal-widespread-activity-7440744524513112064-n4um

LinkedIn / Post by Arjun Amar: Used as a reference for SNS reactions, showing sharing by the researcher and comments evaluating the research.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/arjun-amar-b9308235_long-term-road-surveys-reveal-widespread-activity-7440751769569202176-LUx9

Facebook / Post by The Conversation Africa: Used to verify that the 16 years of data and the crisis of the secretary bird are emphasized on SNS.
https://www.facebook.com/conversationAfrica/posts/south-africas-raptors-are-under-growing-pressure-a-16-year-dataset-reveals-worry/1417553540389438/

Instagram / Post related to Endangered Wildlife Trust Birds of Prey: Used to verify the sharing status of raptor decline from the 16-year road survey as SNS communication by conservation organizations.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DWQ01ymDUO3/