"The Consensus Trap" — Why the Global Plastics Treaty Couldn't Proceed to a Vote: High Ambition vs. Oil-Producing Nations Alliance

On August 15 (local time), the United Nations negotiations for a global treaty to "end plastic pollution" (INC-5.2) held in Geneva concluded without reaching an agreement. The chairperson closed the session after final overnight discussions, and the date and location for the next meeting remain undecided. The breakdown was attributed to several factors: 1) the chairperson's proposal was perceived as a "weak treaty" as it avoided core issues such as production limits, regulation of hazardous chemicals, and funding; 2) the gap between high-ambition and low-ambition countries could not be bridged; and 3) an insistence on consensus prevented a move to voting. The negotiations were primarily centered on the conflict between Europe, Latin America, and island nations advocating for "production reduction," and oil-producing and petrochemical countries focusing on "waste management." Approximately 400 million tons of plastic are produced annually worldwide, with a recycling rate in the single digits. The OECD forecasts that production will nearly triple by 2060. On social media, voices supporting "no deal over a weak agreement," calls for a review of democratic procedures, and questions about the industry's involvement were mixed. Moving forward, key elements will include rebuilding political alliances, designing funding and monitoring frameworks, and, if necessary, "rebooting" procedural aspects, including voting.