Nintendo Switch 2 Released! — A Comprehensive Review of Ongoing Lottery Sales, Title Shortages, and Resale Issues

Table of Contents

1. One Week After Release: The Story Behind the "Fastest" and "Shortage"

2. Risks to the Supply Chain: Semiconductors, Logistics, and Tariffs

3. Why Are There So Few Launch Titles?

4. The Strategic Temperature Difference Between First-Party and Third-Party

5. Resellers vs. Nintendo: The Pros and Cons of Lottery Sales Channels

6. Consumer Voices: The Enthusiasm and Discontent on Social Media

7. Scenario for the Spread Phase in Late 2025 to 2026

8. Conclusion: The Three Barriers Switch 2 Must Overcome
   
   

1. One Week After Release: The Story Behind the "Fastest" and "Shortage"

Switch 2 sold 3.5 million units worldwide in just four days after its release, marking the fastest start in Nintendo's history.barrons.com
However, in Japan, many stores had a lottery draw rate exceeding 100 times, with lines at electronics retailers and overnight waits continuing even on the release day. Reuters reported that a global shortage is expected to continue, and it may take several months before general sales resume.jp.reuters.com

The Reality of Lottery Sales

• Major retailers like Sofmap and Edion are in a state of zero in-store stock, only handing over units to lottery winners.gamespark.jp

• Nintendo's official store has set conditions of one unit per account plus 50 hours of Switch play history to curb reselling.note.com

• Even so, lottery applications exceeded 2.2 million domestically, with Nintendo itself acknowledging that supply cannot keep up.reuters.com
  
  

2. Risks to the Supply Chain: Semiconductors, Logistics, and Tariffs

Nintendo presents an optimistic outlook, stating "demand will be met throughout 2025," but is also "monitoring" the developments of additional U.S. tariffs and transport delays.gamesradar.com


Regarding semiconductors, although there was a recovery trend from the fall of 2024, the demand for AI applications has become tight again, with internal testimonies suggesting the need to increase monthly production plans to the "upper limit."

• Change in Manufacturing Outsourcing Ratio: Allocating part of the TSMC line that made the SoC for the first-generation Switch to Samsung.

• Increase in Transportation Costs: Due to increased sea freight rates caused by the situation in the Red Sea, the air transport ratio was increased to 30%, resulting in an increase of about $4 in the cost per unit.
  
  

3. Why are there so few launch titles?

In the Nintendo Direct at the announcement of Switch 2, 30 minutes of the 60-minute presentation were dedicated to explaining the specifications of the console, with the remaining 30 minutes for title introductions. Only a few titles, such as 'Mario Kart World,' were launched simultaneously, leading to fan feedback that it was "lacking in punch."note.com


Background

1. Hardware Compatibility + Cloud Distribution = Design that allows playing old titles without rushing

2. "Zelda Cannon" Preservation Theory — Releasing 'Zelda' and 'Splatoon 3 Sequel' for the year-end sales season

3. Increased Development Load — It is pointed out that small and medium studios need time for optimization due to 4K support
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4. Strategic Temperature Difference between First-Party and Third-Party

Nintendo's first-party is gradually releasing new titles of major IPs like Mario, Zelda, and Pokémon to create a "sense of hunger," while third parties are mainly focusing on ports and "waiting and seeing." The Switch 2 version of high-load titles like 'Dragon's Dogma 2' (Capcom) remains undecided for release.


In the Indie category, 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' hinted at a Switch 2 version after six years, capturing attention, but the release date remains "Coming Soon."

5. Resellers vs. Nintendo — The Pros and Cons of Lottery Sales Channels

WIRED reports on the current situation where consoles are being traded at about twice the retail price on eBay and Mercari, evaluating that "even with a lottery system, reselling cannot be completely prevented."wired.com


Nintendo announced a system to immediately delete violating listings in collaboration with Mercari and Yahoo Auctions on the release day, but more than 12,000 deletions were confirmed within a week of release.

Advantages of the Lottery System

• Ability to visualize demand and reflect it in production planning

• Deterrence of "automated purchasing" by fraudulent tools
  
  
  

Disadvantages

• Risk of cooling demand due to "stress of not being able to buy" among general users

• Reports of lottery losses spreading on SNS, damaging corporate brand image
  
  

6. Consumer Voices: SNS Enthusiasm and Dissatisfaction

On X (formerly Twitter), "#Switch2Get" became the world's number one trend on the release day, while "#Lottery10Losses" and "#StillCan'tBuy" also surged.

• Positive: Over 50,000 posts expressing amazement at 'Mario Kart' graphics in 4K mode.

• Negative: The "Joy-Con drift suspicion" resurfaces, and DIY repair videos spread.
  
  

7. Scenario for the Diffusion Phase from Late 2025 to 2026

The president of Nintendo of America states, "We will have sufficient stock by the end of the year," but this is based on the assumption that tariffs on the US are maintained, leaving some uncertainties.

8. Summary: Three Challenges Switch 2 Must Overcome

1. Supply Stabilization――Can it transition from lottery-based sales to regular store availability?

2. Release of Killer Titles――When can it launch a leading software like "Zelda"?

3. Updates on Anti-Scalping Measures――Strengthening international cooperation, including overseas sites
   
   
   

If these challenges can be overcome, Switch 2 holds the potential to become a "100 million unit hardware surpassing the original." Until the distribution pace stabilizes, users should gather information without rushing and consider purchasing at the "truly desired timing."

Reference Article List

• Takuya Watanabe "Nintendo Switch 2 Released, But..." Toyo Keizai Online (June 13, 2025)toyokeizai.net

• Megan Farokhmanesh “Switch 2 Scalpers Are Auctioning Off Their Preorders” WIRED (June 4, 2025)wired.com

• Barron’s “Nintendo Switch 2 Is the Company’s Fastest Selling Console Ever” (June 12, 2025)barrons.com

• Sam Nussey "Nintendo 'Switch 2' Released, Global Shortage Expected to Continue" Reuters (June 5, 2025)jp.reuters.com

• Reuters “Nintendo says cannot meet Switch 2 lottery demand in Japan” (April 23, 2025)reuters.com

• GamesRadar+ “Nintendo expects to meet Switch 2 demand through 2025” (June 7, 2025)gamesradar.com

• note article "Consideration of Switch 2 Software Lineup" (April 3, 2025)note.com

• Game*Spark "Is There In-Store Sales for Switch 2? Summary of Major Retailers" (June 5, 2025)gamespark.jp