"Japan's 'Marriage Hunting' Turning into a Battle Royale: The Real Marriage Frontline in the Fight Against Declining Birthrates"

1. Why Marriage is Central to Addressing the Declining Birthrate

In Japan, the proportion of children born out of wedlock is just under 2%, which is low. Since childbirth almost always occurs in conjunction with marriage, the number of marriages influences the number of births. theguardian.com. The number of births in 2024 is expected to hit a record low for the ninth consecutive year, which the government considers a crisis situation reuters.com.

1-1 Historical Decline in Birth Numbers

• Number of Births: 720,988 (2024, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare preliminary report)

• Total Fertility Rate: 1.20 (2024 provisional)

• Number of Marriages: 485,063 couples (up 10,000 from the previous year) mhlw.go.jp
  
  
  

As the number of marriages approaches the level of the 1940s, the number of births continues to hit post-war lows. Moreover, the average age at first marriage is rising, with men at 31.1 years and women at 29.8 years, raising concerns about further delays in childbirth.

2. Why Has Dating Become a "Battle Royale"?

2-1 The Surge in Dating Apps Expands Disparities

The number of dating app companies has increased 5.6 times over five years, but within these platforms, a "winner-takes-all" structure is strong, with the top 20% of men and women receiving 80% of the "likes." tsr-net.co.jp. Expert Araki states, "Apps are tools for popular people," pointing out that average users often feel the difficulty of meeting someone news.tv-asahi.co.jp.

2-2 Postponement is a "Blade of Self-Destruction"

In an ABEMA Prime program, Araki mentioned that while the 20s are a "blue ocean," competition for conditions intensifies after the 30s, and postponement becomes a "blade of self-destruction." news.tv-asahi.co.jp. By the mid-30s, the probability of matching desired conditions with reality drops sharply, and since this coincides with the age of potential pregnancy, the risks are doubled.

3. Issues Surrounding Declining Birthrate and Marriage Hunting

4. Are Policies Functioning?

4-1 National Support

• Expansion of Child Allowance(Revised in 2024)

• Subsidies for Housing Acquisition and Infertility Treatment

• Experimental Introduction of a Four-Day Workweek Model (Tokyo, from April 2025) news.com.au

4-2 Local Government's Unique Apps

Local governments such as Tokyo, Niigata, and Okayama have developed government-operated apps. Although user registrations are increasing due to the absence of economic barriers, the number of matches is sluggish compared to private apps theguardian.com.

5. Japan's Marriage Hunting from an International Perspective

• In many European countries, the ratio of children born out of wedlock exceeds 50%, indicating that marriage is not a prerequisite for childbirth.

• South Korea will introduce a marriage support fund system in 2024, with a slight increase in birth rates.reuters.com

• Singapore promotes "national marriage hunting" through a government-led matching program.
  
  
  

Point for Foreign Readers
Overseas companies deploying apps in the Japanese market must localize, understanding the culturally strong "marriage = childbirth" model and the fixed nature of family views.

6. Expert-Recommended "Winning Marriage Hunting" 5 Steps

1. Leverage Age Advantage
   Enter the market in your mid-20s if possible.
   
   

2. Visualize Your "Market Value"
   EQ (emotional intelligence) is more important than profile photos, income, or hobbies.
   
   

3. Hybrid Strategy of Online × Offline
   Increase "love fishing ponds" through hobby events and volunteering.news.tv-asahi.co.jp.
   
   

4. Share Career and Family Plans Early
   Verbalize future plans with potential partners to prevent discrepancies.
   
   

5. Pre-learn About Fertility and Infertility Treatments
   Realistically understand the success rate of childbirth in your 30s and utilize available systems.
   
   

7. Actions Required by Companies and Society

• Expansion of Flexible Work Arrangements (Remote Work, Shortened Hours, 4-Day Workweek)

• Correction of Gender Wage Gap and Support for Career Continuation

• Visualization of Child-Rearing Costs and Immediate Provision of Subsidies

• Opening of Public Data to Improve "Marriage Activity UX"
  
  

8. Conclusion ── The Path to Balancing "Individual Happiness" and "Societal Sustainability"

Marriage and childbirth are personal choices, yet they are also the foundation of social security and economic growth. The phrase "postponement is self-destruction" as stated by experts is not a threat but a "probability theory" supported by reproductive medicine and statistics. To prevent marriage activities from becoming a "battle royale," it is essential to correct market structure distortions and create an environment where young people can plan their lives with confidence.

List of Reference Articles

• ABEMA Prime "Serious Decline in Birthrate... Is 'Marriage' the Solution, or is Marriage Activity a Battle Royale?"")(2025-06-21)

• TV Asahi News "Matching Apps as 'Tools for Popular People'" (2025-06-21) news.tv-asahi.co.jp

• Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare "Overview of the 2024 Annual Report on Vital Statistics (Preliminary Figures)" (2025-05-30) mhlw.go.jp

• Reuters "Japan’s new births fall for 9 straight years to record low 2024" (2025-02-27) reuters.com

• The Guardian "Japan asks young people why they are not marrying" (2024-07-19) theguardian.com

• TSR "Expanding Matching App Market Amid COVID-19" (2025-04-10) tsr-net.co.jp

• App-Liv "2025 Matching App Market: The Evolving Frontier of Encounters" (2025-02-13) app-liv.jp

• Semafor "Marriages and births plummet in Japan and South Korea" (2024-02-28) semafor.com