The "Harvest Gamble" Intensifies with Climate Fluctuations ― Global Warming Shakes the World's Dining Tables

A recent study led by UBC and reported by Phys.org has, for the first time on a global scale, quantified how global warming causes "wild fluctuations" in the harvest of summer crops worldwide. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the year-to-year yield variability increases by 7% for corn, 19% for soybeans, and 10% for sorghum. Not only does the average yield decrease, but the magnitude of "hits and misses" also grows, increasing the frequency of once-in-a-century major crop failures. For example, in a world approximately 2°C warmer than today, a "once-in-a-century" soybean crop failure would occur every 25 years. This is due to the "double punch" of more frequent simultaneous occurrences of extreme heat and soil drying. While irrigation is effective, it has limitations in regions with scarce water resources. Key measures include breeding drought- and heat-resistant varieties, advancing weather forecasting, soil management, setting up income insurance and stockpiling, and most importantly, reducing emissions. On social media, discussions have expanded around concerns about price increases, disparities in insurance systems, and the limits of adaptation. The study is published in Science Advances, with data and reproducible code made available.