The "Fuel Shortage" Crisis Looming Over European Skies - War Directly Hits Airfare and Flight Numbers

A quiet change is currently underway in the skies over Europe. The catalyst is the worsening situation in the Middle East and the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for energy transportation. An article published on InfoMoney reported that the tightening of aviation fuel supplies could severely impact European flight fares and availability. According to the source article, jet fuel prices have surged from around $99 per barrel at the end of February to $209 by early April, with warnings that Europe could face "fuel shortages within weeks." This is not merely a matter of rising costs. It's not just that airfares will increase; there is also the possibility that the number of flights themselves could decrease.

Europe is particularly vulnerable because it relies heavily on external sources for jet fuel. According to Reuters, Europe once depended on the Gulf region for about 75% of its imported jet fuel, and securing alternatives is not easy when this supply route is disrupted. In reality, fuel inflows to Europe from the United States and Nigeria have increased to record levels, but they still cannot fully compensate for the lost Gulf supply. The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that "Europe may only have about six weeks of jet fuel left," and IATA has indicated that flight cancellations due to fuel shortages could begin in Europe by the end of May. This crisis is not a distant possibility but is increasingly being recognized as a realistic risk that could affect the busy summer season.

This pressure is already reflected in the business decisions of airlines. Air Canada announced it would suspend some flights to and from JFK from June 1 to October 25 to curb fuel costs. Air France-KLM has introduced price increases for long-haul flights, with Reuters reporting an additional charge of 50 euros for economy round trips. Lufthansa is proceeding with the suspension of up to 27 aircraft, and other airlines like SAS and Cathay Pacific are also reducing flights and adjusting fares. In other words, this is not just about airfares becoming slightly more expensive. It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain routes with thin profit margins, particularly regional routes and flights with unpredictable demand, which are being cut first.

For travelers, the troublesome aspect is that price increases and supply reductions are occurring simultaneously. As flights decrease, the prices of remaining seats tend to rise, compounded by increases in fuel surcharges and checked baggage fees. AP has reported that this year, the strategy of "waiting until the last minute" is riskier than usual. Meanwhile, airlines, fearing misjudging demand, are forced to adopt a cautious sales approach. Reuters reported that easyJet's management acknowledged delays in bookings and shifts in travel destinations, with signs of demand moving away from the Eastern Mediterranean towards the Western Mediterranean and closer destinations. It's not just that travel prices are rising; the nature of travel itself is beginning to shift towards "nearby, safe, and certain."

Interestingly, these changes are being vividly shared on social media. On Reddit's travel threads, there are voices saying, "I secured a ticket to Greece before the price hike," "Flights to Spain jumped from the $700 range to nearly $2,000," and "I'm reducing international travel this year and switching to car travel." On the other hand, there are also calm opinions like "Prices still seem normal from what I see" and "I don't think there will be massive cancellations right away." On X, posts spreading warnings about Europe's "remaining six weeks" and Air Canada's JFK suspension are circulating, spreading anxiety about whether to finalize summer travel plans now. While social media reactions are not a microcosm of overall public opinion, it is clear that user sentiment is rapidly polarizing from "it's expensive, but I'll go" to "decide now or cancel."

The essence of this issue is not limited to the aviation industry alone. As Europe progresses with energy restructuring post-Russia, it has become dependent on another supply source. This weakness, which was not apparent during peacetime, has been rapidly exposed by war and logistical disruptions. The EU is even considering emergency measures such as releasing jet fuel reserves, supply monitoring, and joint procurement. This means that authorities are beginning to recognize that this is a problem of a scale that cannot be handled by a single company. The increase in airfares is merely a "symptom." The real issue is that the very system that has relied on stable supply in European skies is now being shaken.

So how should travelers respond? The most realistic approach at this point is not to panic excessively, but also not to act with a peacetime mindset. Experts recommend maintaining flexibility with dates, departure, and arrival locations, avoiding the cheapest fares that are difficult to change, and using points or miles if necessary. There is no guarantee that the fuel crisis will be resolved in a few days, and even if a ceasefire is reached, it will take time for logistics and refining to normalize. Therefore, travel is shifting from "can I go cheaply?" to "can I go as planned?" The European aviation crisis is not a one-off news story cooling the summer travel market. It is becoming a symbolic event that once again demonstrates that global mobility cannot escape the realities of geopolitics and energy.

Source

・Confirmed concerns about Europe's aviation fuel shortage, rising jet fuel prices, and the trend of fare increases and flight reductions by airlines in the base article published on InfoMoney.
https://www.infomoney.com.br/mundo/europa-sem-combustivel-para-voar-guerra-afeta-custos-de-aereas-e-oferta-de-voos/

・AP's related article. Confirmed the possibility of Europe facing a jet fuel shortage within weeks, the price increase from around $99 to $209, and the practical impact on travelers, similar to the InfoMoney article.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-europe-jet-fuel-flight-cancellations-birol-6e67fafd493861b3858de5548aa77703

・AP's traveler-oriented explanation. Reinforced points on purchasing airline tickets, rising baggage fees, and booking considerations.
https://apnews.com/article/summer-travel-flights-prices-war-fuel-d88cd606531d816cbc4d7e1f6c16dc81

・Reuters. Confirmed Europe's heavy reliance on the Gulf region, alternative inflows from the US and Nigeria, and the severity of inventory shortages.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-sees-record-jet-inflows-us-april-2026-04-15/

・Reuters. Confirmed that the European aviation industry is urging the EU for emergency responses, including joint procurement and inventory monitoring.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/airlines-urge-eu-step-iran-war-chokes-jet-fuel-supply-2026-04-14/

・Reuters. Confirmed the possibility of the EU considering the release of jet fuel stocks.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-could-release-jet-fuel-stocks-if-hormuz-disruption-persists-2026-04-17/

・Reuters. Confirmed Air France-KLM's increase in long-haul fares.
https://www.reuters.com/business/air-france-klm-raise-long-haul-ticket-prices-jet-fuel-costs-spike-2026-03-12/

・Reuters. Confirmed Lufthansa's suspension of operations and the industry's overall sense of caution.
https://www.reuters.com/business/easyjet-warns-bigger-first-half-loss-middle-east-fuel-costs-legal-bills-2026-04-16/

・Reuters. Confirmed IATA's indication of possible flight cancellations in Europe starting by the end of May due to fuel shortages.
https://www.reuters.com/business/europe-faces-summer-flight-cancellations-jet-fuel-shortage-iata-says-2026-04-17/

・Air Canada official release. Confirmed the temporary suspension schedule for JFK flights.
https://www.aircanada.com/media/cost-of-fuel-and-the-impact-to-air-canadas-schedule/

・IATA official statement. Confirmed the industry's view on the possibility of fuel shortage-induced cancellations starting in Europe by the end of May.
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-04-17-01/

・Public posts and threads used to confirm social media reactions. Referenced to understand trends in traveler anxiety, early bookings, postponements, and skepticism.
https://www.reddit.com/r/travel/comments/1s4irbc/purchasing_international_flight_tickets_during/
https://www.reddit.com/r/BritishAirways/comments/1sd2fvo/fuel_shortages_prognosis/
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1s84lj9/uk_to_receive_last_tanker_of_jet_fuel_from_middle/